Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:55:55

Constituency Profile


Ainsworth, David

Cherrin, Robert

Criger, Dan

Davis, Jonathan

Gallant, Cheryl

Jones-Whyte, Eileen

Klietsch, Stefan

Kumar, Dheerendra

Marini, Ruben

Pineau, Ian


Cheryl Gallant

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



11464.88 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Cheryl Gallant ** 2619545.80%
Jeff Lehoux 1866632.70%
Hector Clouthier 630011.00%
Dan McCarthy 48938.60%
Stefan Klietsch 11051.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 961118.70%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

John Yakabuski * 3335069.19%
Ethel Lavalley 806616.73%
Jackie Agnew 47019.75%
Anna Dolan 14362.98%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8812.13%

19/10/19 Tony Ducey
Gallant is a bit of a kook but she always seems to get elected. I think she gets re-elected on Monday.
10/10/19 Sane Tory
I'm a Tory and this is the one riding I hope we lose. Good riddance to Cheryl she's a kook but it doesn't look like that will happen. Maybe if Sean Conway were to run or a house were to fall on Gallant. That's a joke I don't wish any harm on her before people get lit up.
07/10/19 R.O.
I can’t figure out why there is so many fringe candidates in this riding when compared to others. Appears to be 10 candidates on the ballot here, when there typically was only 5. most other rural eastern ontario ridings didn’t see an increase in candidates. either way none of the new candidates really stand out and Cheryl Gallant has been mp for sometime.
22/08/20 A.S.
It might be interesting to see Gallant fall short of 50% even *without* Hec in the race--though if it happens, it'll be due to PPC vote raiding (and the riding's past as a Confederation of Regions stronghold suggests that possibility, even if Gallant's modus operandi arguably renders such a shift redundant), or a Pembroke/Petawawa ballot-box boost, or of course, that Greater Ottawa moderation trend seeping in Arnprior way. But you'd *really* know the Ford backlash is sinking in if she falls below her '15 share as well.
22/07/19 Laurence Putnam
I'm aghast at how Ms. Gallant continues to be re-elected, but six out of six elections - including in 2000 as one of only two CA victors in the entire province pretty much sums it up. Gallant will not only win her seventh in as many contests, she'll probably do so back above 50% of the vote too.
18/04/19 Sam
This was the best riding in Ontario for the PCs in 2018. Whilst Gallant doesn't have the strength of John Yakabuski with her many detractors, there is clearly enough firm Conservative support here to be re-elected. I suspect she'll get a majority of votes this time.
31/03/19 seasaw
This was once one of the safest Liberal seats in the country. Len Hopkins held the seat here for 32 years and Sean Conway held it provincial for the Liberals for 28 years. Things have changed in the new Millennium though, and now this riding's become a safe Conservative riding. Nothing'll change this time
28/02/19 Craig
Safe Conservative. The stars lined up perfectly in 2015 for an upset - very strong Liberal candidate and Hec Clouthier splitting the right (he mainly took conservative votes) yet Cheryl Gallant won by a healthy margin, even if it was nowhere near what Yakabuski got provincially.
The dynamics are different this time - the Liberals are the incumbents with an unpopular record here, the Conservatives are more populist with immigration likely to be a bigger issue along with resource development, and there seems to be no sign of Hec Clouthier. I'd expect a blowout win for Gallant, unless the PPC nominates a strong candidate (and even then it would take a perfect split for any chance of an upset).
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Cheryl Gallant maybe a nutbar and thus why she won't run up the margins John Yakabuski does, but that doesn't matter, this may have once gone Liberal federally but today is one of the most conservative parts of Ontario so easy Tory hold.

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