Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:55:49

Constituency Profile


Bowers, Robert M

MacGregor, Andrew

Monsef, Maryam

Murphy, Alexander

Ranney, Ken

Shaw, Candace

Skinner, Michael


Maryam Monsef

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



3025.15 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Maryam Monsef 2915943.80%
Michael Skinner 2333535.10%
Dave Nickle 1243718.70%
Doug Mason 14802.20%
Toban Leckie 1310.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2680.47%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (93.59% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
   (6.41% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Dave Smith 2290437.68%
Sean Conway 2051833.75%
Jeff Leal * 1494624.59%
Gianne Broughton 20243.33%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6351.19%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Unlike the other Peterborough riding I think this 1 will stay Liberal on Monday. Momsef has caught some flak during her time in office but I think she stays as MP.
19/10/19 Gov’t Employee
This definitely is not too close to call anymore.
Monsef has failed as a Cabinet Minister. Everything she touches falls apart. Unfortunately, we will be having a “First Past The Post” election again. And this really is thanks to her.
He lack of support for the women in the Liberal government shows she doesn’t have a backbone. As well, as her complete acceptance of Trudeau’s black-face stunts is disgusting.
Clearly a token member. She didn’t get elected on her own merits, but rode on the coattails of Trudeau Mania. That is gone this time around. While the Liberals may be able to hang onto power, Monsef will surely be a casualty of lack luster Liberals this time around.
19/10/19 R.O.
I noticed some advance polling data for this riding , it went up from 2015. 17,352 voters voted at the advance polls which was 2100 votes more than 2015. Although I’m not sure those numbers tell us much , they seem to be in line with other Ontario ridings which saw increases. The strong turnout at the advance polls indicates strong local interest in the election and local candidates. which seems to be a close race between Maryan Monsef and Michael Skinner .
11/10/19 Mizisuga
The description of Monsef as a “star candidate” comes off a bit silly to me, considering she was by far one of the most incompetent members of cabinet. Combine this with the riding’s bellwether status and it’s clear she will not be in Ottawa after Election Day.
07/10/19 R.O.
True Maryan Monsef is the incumbent mp for this riding but I wouldn’t consider her a star candidate . either way the race here is much like any other ontario riding. Largely a liberal/conservative contest with the ndp and greens fighting for 3rd place. Michael Skinner is once again the conservative candidate for the riding and Scheer made a brief campaign stop in the riding this weekend.
30/09/19 wildcat47
I have a feeling the Liberals will hold this riding. Maryam Monsef is a star now, and not just a local Candidate. Two years ago,she was seen with Angelina Jolie, UN Ambassador for Women& Actress at the TIFF Festival in Toronto for a film ‘ Hava, Maryam, Ayesha’ . If people have not clued in yet, the film is actually about her and 2 other young women that were fighting the taliban off in Afghanistan.She just happened to come to Canada from the USA, and joined the Liberals, and ran in 2015, and she won the riding. Trudeau made her a cabinet Minister of Equality & Gender, and she worked very hard with other people to create a national program to fight human trafficking. Plus, she has done quite a bit while she was in parliament, and in the riding.
Obviously, the Conservatives are jealous because the Liberals are running a Star Candidate in the riding again for this election. To be honest,it looks bad on the Conservative Candidate to be referring Maryam Monsef to a Local Candidate when their is an international film about her being entered as an entry at the Oscars.
Many people recently showed up at her rallies, and she accepted the Prime Minister apology in regards to the blackface photos, and still has managed to gather people to support her as a Candidate for the Liberals. She had over 800 people show up at her rally. Good sign, she has done something right or she would not have had that many people show up at her rally.
I have a feeling this riding will stay Liberal. Who knows if Maryam Monsef gets Re-elected,and Trudeau wins another term,I can see Prime Minister Trudeau putting her back into Cabinet in a higher position.
27/08/19 PTBO Pundit
Slight edge to Tories this time around. The polls indicate ties or small Tory leads nationally. Generally no one cares about local candidates in this riding so its not a reflection on any of them in particular. Besides, the incumbent has recently revealed herself as being just as foolish as the last character to represent this riding... promising millions and millions and millions and millions of dollars to study a train stop which will never be built.
27/08/19 Sam
Re the comments about bellwether status... It may not be a bellwether this time, of course, but it can still be a bellwether of Ontario even then. - Nobody thinks Pontiac is a bellwether anymore - but it does strongly reflect provincial trends. And the same may happen here.
15/08/20 A.S.
At least *somebody" sought to break the hackneyed Peterborough-the-ultimate-bellwether entry pattern to raise the matter of Monsef's chequered cabinet performance--and who knows how well Skinner would have done in '15 had he not had to live down his predecessor being tossed into the clink. Still, it's a predominantly urban riding, which helps the Liberals; and P'boro's been around the top for fastest metropolitan growth in Canada lately, which *also* helps the Liberals--but it'd definitely be a case of "take that!" to the prognosticators if Justin hangs on as PM yet loses Monsef in the process. And I wouldn't rule out that possibility.
13/08/20 South Islander
Bellwethers are only bellwethers until they aren't anymore. Missouri was the best bellwether until 2008, as was Sarnia until 2015. Neither is considered close anymore. Party voter coalitions and constituency demographics change over time. Peterborough might have a moderately long streak of going with the winning party (nowhere near as long as Sarnia's), but that doesn't necessarily make it the best current microcosm of the national electorate.
P-K will go LPC because it went LPC by nearly the same margin as the Province in 2015 and the LPC has a substantial edge in Ontario. Monsef's cabinet status is likely a further boon to the party's chance's in the riding. I have seen no indication that Laurence Putnam's strong opinion about her performance reflects any sort of national or local consensus.
But if we are going to consider P-K's bellwether status and other past patterns, then it will go LPC because it is exceedingly rare for governments in Canada to be turfed after a single term.
13/04/19 Laurence Putnam
I will agree that history indicates this as a perfect bellwether and I'll tentatively agree that it's most likely a bellwether this time too.
However...all records are made, eventually to be broken. Streaks get snapped when some sort of causation enables it. It cannot be taken for granted that Peterborough will reflect the national result ‘just because’.
If the election nationally, and particularly in Ontario is close enough, I truly wonder if Monsef's abysmal performance as an utterly incompetent minister puts her in any danger locally. Maybe not...but we will soon see.
08/04/19 Sam
Why bother making a projection here now? I agree with all the other posters, this is just a bellwether.
16/03/19 Craig
The quintessential bellwether riding. Whoever wins the election would be highly favoured to win here. There's something about Peterborough that makes it a microcosm of Ontario and Canada - mixture of blue collar and white collar, urban and rural, income and demographics right on the average. There's no reason to believe that will not continue this year...not so much 'too close to call' as 'too early to call'.
28/02/19 Stevo
Canada's top bellwether riding.
Voted with the winning national party in all but 4 federal elections since its inception in 1953.
Whoever wins the election overall will be heavily favoured to win this seat.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
At the moment I would predict a narrow Liberal win, but I think the best prediction is to predict whomever you think will win the election as since 1979, it has voted for the winning party in all but one election and has backed the winning party provincially in every election since 1977 so the safest bet here is whichever party wins this seat will go on to form government.

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