Election Prediction Project

Parkdale-High Park
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:55:35

Constituency Profile


Capra, Nick

Gershuny, Lorne

Pabani, Alykhan

Parker, Terry

Pham, Adam

Taylor, Paul

Virani, Arif

Wycliffe, Greg


Arif Virani

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



14.78 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Arif Virani 2462342.00%
Peggy Nash ** 2356640.20%
Ian Allen 764113.00%
Adam Phipps 17433.00%
Mark Jeftovic 6101.00%
Terry Parker 1910.30%
Lorne Gershuny 1000.20%
Carol Royer 930.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 5521.08%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Parkdale-High Park
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Bhutila Karpoche 3240759.41%
Adam Pham 982118%
Nadia Guerrera 927117%
Halyna Zalucky 25444.66%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6011.33%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
I think this goes NDP tomorrow. It has alternated between NDP and Liberal since 2006. Peggy Nash is not on the ballot now but Paul taylor is for the NDP and I think he wins here tomorrow.
20/10/19 Jack Cox
Paul Taylor is likely going to win this riding. I suspect him and Min Sook Lee at the minimum are going to be the new NDP MPS for Toronto.
16/10/19 S.M.P
Singh visited this riding and hundreds turned out. It was mid-day Tuesday after a long holiday weekend! This riding is seriously in play, and I suspect is going Orange. Taylor had a rocky start, especially with the disastrous nomination meeting, but he's outpacing Arif right now on the ground, not only in Parkdale, but also in Roncy and the Junction. This should be changed, at a minimum, to TCTC
13/10/19 Riverdale resident
338 has this as a toss-up as of Oct 12. With the close result last time and Singh and Trudeau going in opposite directions, this cannot possibly be a Liberal lock.
At a minimum TCTC.
12/10/19 Bo
With the NDP climbing back to 2015 levels of support, and looking to possibly expand beyond that, this seat would be one of the first to flip back to the NDP from the Grits, after Toronto-Danforth and Davenport. If the NDP truly does get 25% in Ontario as indicated in the latest DART poll, this seat would flip quite easily.
13/10/19 Anthony
The NDP are nearing 20% support in recent polling while some polling is showing the Liberals under 30%. That should be enough to tip this progressive working class riding in the NDP column.
07/10/19 Jack Cox
I think this riding should be at least too close to call. The sign war is very very close and I think it will be a close race. Paul Taylor could probably pull off a win here.
16/09/19 seasaw
@Laurence Putnam, a lead of 50% in the GTA? Where did you get that? The Liberals did have a 20 point lead 46-26 over the Tories in 416, but that was 2 months ago and for the rest of GTA, things were a lot tighter. Now getting back to this riding, the Liberals have only lost this during their terrible elections (1984 and 2011), and once in 2006 and that was because of a combination of an inept incumbent and a strong NDP candidate, Peggy Nash. This year none of the scenarios are present, that's why this will not only be a win, it will be a huge Liberal win.
06/09/19 Laurence Putnam
The NDP are so screwed right now that simply holding some of the seats they do have is going to be a monstrous challenge. Liberals are holding a lead of approx 50% in the GTA right now and the NDP have to split the remainder of left-of-centre ‘progressive’ votes with the Greens these days. I don't know much about Paul Taylor but I do know the name will not carry the weight that Peggy Nash did. This one isn't even going to be close.
29/08/19 ohara
Chris: You miss the point. I realize that nomination meetings are "inside baseball" (though the optics of this one are particularly bad) and themselves don't sway that many people. But Arif Virani was always going to be hard to beat given his incumbency, high profile and national numbers. He is strong in both the Parkdale and High Park sides of the riding. The NDP nomination and its fallout just increases his chances of re-election from very good to almost certain. Paul Taylor basically photo-opped his way to the nomination, there is no substance there. He is using the same strategy for the general, which will not cut it. As for the "legendary" PHP NDP machine, that's largely deceptive. It's not what it was under the days of the late Julius Deutsch. Yes Bhutila Karpoche is a great MPP, but her massive victory was due to the collapse of the OLP. In the end the NDP central party resources that matter will end up going to Davenport where Andrew Cash (who has been at it since December, is greatly respected in the community and faces a much weaker Lib) is much better positioned for an NDP victory in Toronto (likely the only one).
21/08/20 Chris N
Ohara – I think the competitive NDP nomination is inside baseball that got little attention outside the political chattering class. The election will likely come down to the local and national political winds, which would give this riding an edge to the Liberals. The NDP has a very well organized activist base and riding association in the area, but I’m not sure it will be enough to prop up a party that is lagging in the polls and being seriously challenged by the Greens.
15/08/20 ohara
Arif Virani will be re-elected as the MP for Parkdale-High Park. This could have been ripe for the taking by the NDP, but they blew any chance they had of taking it back with their disastrous nomination meeting. They ended up nominating Paul Taylor who recently parachuted in from Vancouver and does little more than superficial photo-ops. Either Saron Gebresellassi or Tom Parkin would have far more effective in taking on Arif Virani on the issues. Taylor just has the diehard NDP partisans and a few hipsters, not enough to win the riding. Not sure what the PHP NDP exec, Gord Perks and Cheri DiNovo see in him. Arif in contrast is a good constituency MP. He can appeal to both the immigrant communities of Parkdale and the professionals in High Park. The Conservatives have nominated the same candidate from the provincial election - they of course have no chance in this progressive riding. There's also a large constituency that cares deeply about climate change, so I expect the Greens to do well (mostly at the expense of the NDP), maybe even come in third ahead of the Cons.
04/08/20 A.S.
The trouble with the 'gentrification' argument is that the advent of gentrification would appear to have *strengthened* the PHP NDP machine in recent years, *not* weakened it--except that Paul Taylor's nomination has been beset with internal civil war that could wind up imperiling party morale come E-day. But even with that under consideration, I wouldn't consider it so clear and obvious that it'll be better for the Libs than *both* Davenport *and* Toronto-Danforth--particularly considering how Jack Layton skewed the picture in the latter case. Oh, and re Craig's claims about a potential 'worst outside of Montreal' result for the Cons: I can see how fourth behind the Greens is a possibility, but as long as the relative affluence of places like Baby Point and Riverside and Ellis Park exists, sub-10%, much less sub-5%, seems to be pushing it. (And they're running 2018's 2nd-place provincial PC candidate, not that that's to their benefit or anything.)
25/07/19 RM
Obviously the election is several months off, but I think NDPers are overly optimistic about taking this ... hopeful but not grounded in reality. The Liberal machine will try to defend every seat in Toronto and they have lots of safe seats and can throw resources into places like Parkdale High Park. This riding is gentrifying and those voters are Liberals. Unless the NDP national campaign can improve, I think the Liberals will take it (and protest votes will go Green).
20/07/19 Sam
If we're saying the NDP have improved their position based on polls, and therefore this seat is tctc, that isn't the case. As I have said on various sites, this seat was always going to be slightly better for Liberals than Danforth or Davenport, and judging by the weak NDP numbers in polls of Toronto, this is therefore the easiest of those three to call, and we can. There is no Gerard Kennedy or Peggy Nash, so expect this to be a standard campaign here. That's favouring the Liberals at this point in time.
22/06/19 Ontario Voter
People referencing the poor national poll results for the NDP seem to forget that the NDP is actually polling better in Ontario now then they did in the last federal election when they lost this seat by a narrow margin. The Liberals are polling no where near what they got in Ontario in 2015 including in the city of Toronto. This is a naturally NDP district that the provincial party won by the over 30,000 votes in the Ontario Election where the Liberals actually managed to come 3rd behind the Conservatives. This should be one of three Toronto ridings that returns to the NDP along with Davenport and Toronto-Danforth.
12/06/19 Right Honourable Adult
Time to call this one for the NDP. Forgotten in most of the narrative so far is how scorned left-of-centre voters have been by the Trudeau government this term. This is not a riding where any voter is going to be spooked into thinking the Tories might pick it up if the orange-red-green votes get split three ways (an even split would leave them with a >20-point margin even if we allow for 10% of the total vote to go to fringe parties). People here vote their hearts this time and this goes back to the NDP.
12/06/19 Craig
I'm going against the grain and thinking that Parkdale-High Park stays Liberal. This may be a natural target for the NDP, but gentrification is removing the working class nature and replacing it with more yuppie-friendly condos. That will only help the Liberals especially with Peggy Nash no longer in the picture.
This isn't so much a Liberal or NDP riding as an ABC riding. With the NDP running very low in the polls, they should come out en masse for the LPC (unless the Greens become the anti-Conservative voice and the GPC can make gains). As for the Conservatives? They are absolutely despised here at all levels (Doug Ford, Andrew Scheer, Donald Trump...all tied together) and could very well finish fourth, probably with under 10% of the vote and maybe under 5%, perhaps their worst result outside of Montreal.
24/05/19 ottawa99
Comparing CBC's poll tracker numbers to the 2015 results suggests a comfortable NDP win here. The NDP (according to the poll tracker) are averaging slightly better in Ontario than in 2015, whereas the Liberals are down by about 10% in the province. This would suggest an NDP margin of victory of 7-10% here. Of course, not having Peggy Nash on the ballot will lose the NDP some votes. That said, I suspect the impact of this will be limited to a few percentage points. Provincial results involving different candidates suggest that this has become one of the best NDP seats in Toronto. As such, based on current numbers, I think the NDP would take this by a margin of 2-5%. That said, TCTC is the right call this far out.
03/05/19 seasaw
NDP would love to pick up this riding, but in order to do it, not only do they have to be polling a lot better than they are, but also have a candidate in the same caliber as Peggy Nash. Right now, they don't seem to have either. Liberal hold.
12/04/19 Chris N
This is one of three ridings, including Toronto-Danforth and Davenport, that I suspect will be the NDP's focus in Toronto. I would argue that Arif Virani is the most high profile Liberal incumbent in these three ridings, both as a Parliamentary Secretary and MP. Had Peggy Nash decided to run again I would be more confident in the NDP's chances. This will likely come down to the finish line.
08/03/19 Sam
The Liberals won very narrowly last time and like neighbouring Davenport the NDP have a very good chance here. Peggy Nash isn't running again but the margin was close enough last time that that may not matter at all. If the NDP gain Davenport and Toronto-Danforth as is likely this is probably not too far behind.

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