Election Prediction Project

Ottawa South
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:55:19

Constituency Profile


Bolaños, Rodrigo André

Bouragba, Ahmed

Gay, Morgan

Laith, Sarmad

McGuinty, David

Schram, Les

Tannis, Eli

Wasslen, Larry


David McGuinty

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



72.88 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

David McGuinty ** 3883160.10%
Dev Balkissoon 1571124.30%
George Brown 748011.60%
John Redins 18882.90%
Al Gullon 3660.60%
Damien Wilson 2370.40%
Larry Wasslen 1360.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 8951.52%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Ottawa South
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

John Fraser * 2077339.63%
Karin Howard 1531929.23%
Eleanor Fast 1425027.19%
Les Schram 16183.09%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6561.38%

20/10/19 ewv1973
Here is my prediction for this election, not much appears to have changed during this election. No major controversies locally so this was one of the more quiet ridings compared to the provincial election.
Libs - 29,865
Cons - 14,696
NDP - 10,017
Green - 5,366
PPC - 1,118
An easy Liberal hold but a drop in support by about 10,000 votes from last time, that vote going to the NDP and Green parties. The Conservatives will be down about a 1,000 votes which appear to be going to the PPC. The Greens will see the largest gain with them getting close to 4,000 more votes than the last election. As I haven't seen any indication of the Green party here having a ground game they likely lost out on about another 400-500 votes. The NDP for many years here have under performed in respect to the National Average for the party. They are still under performing here but they do appear to be closing the gap both Provincially and Federally. A lot of that is due to a strong local team that has helped them increase their vote.
19/10/19 Tony Ducey
The political home of former foreign minister, John Manley. The seat has been Liberal since its inception. I doubt it changes now. Liberal hold.
21/09/19 Sitamshu Marahatta
The McGuinty dynasty has held this riding for decades, it’s a Liberal hold for sure. It won’t be as much of a blowout as last time though. The Conservatives will eat into McGuinty’s support in the more suburban areas, and the NDP’s Morgan Gay is actually running a very solid campaign here. They’re working hard to get out the vote in Herongate, Heatherington, and other low-income areas. But at the end of the day, the Liberals will keep it.
16/09/19 R.O.
During the time I’ve followed politics pretty sure this riding has never voted anything but liberal so more than likely it stays liberal this year.
25/08/20 ewv1973
As per the others I still see this as a Liberal hold but I think it will not be the 35 point blowout we saw in the last election. For the first time in a decade of living in this riding I saw a Conservative candidate actually canvassing in my area. Talking to Eli he is determined to canvas the entire riding. From our discussion it looks like the Conservatives in this riding are finally putting forth a ground game that had been lacking and hurting them in the previous elections.
Looking at the site 338 they predict a Liberal hold here and based on their numbers at the moment I see the likely scenario
Lib - 45-50%
Cons - 25-30% (towards 30 if they actually have an election day plan, they have the canvassing)
NDP - 15-17%
Green - 12-15% (suspect they don't have ground game here as NDP do, so while improving as per the party not expecting them to beat an NDP that has a proven ground game in this riding)
PPC - 2.5%
13/08/20 A.S.
Tannis isn't a *strong* "strong competitor"; and CPC's flung strong contenders vs the McGuinty machine in the past, always in futility. Who knows, in the unlikely event that 2018's provincial dynamic is furthered federally in 2019, we might somehow even see the NDP ahead of the Cons...
21/07/19 seasaw
This one's a no Brainer. Easy Liberal hold. This riding since inception has always been held by a Liberal, it's predecessor riding, only elected a Tory twice, once in a 1977 by-election and once during the landslide of '84. The Liberals often poll over 50% in this riding. Sometime down the road things might change but not this time.
17/04/19 Laurence Putnam
Held both federally and provincially by their respective Liberal parties for over 30 years (and by three members of the same family) the Tories would do well to read the previous posts here and devote their energies elsewhere. Even in 2011 federally and 2018 provincially this is a dyed-in-the-wool grit riding. Even if it's starting to look like Scheer is going to be more and more competitive, you'd need a 1984 style Mulroney wave to even contemplate turning this blue. Scheer on his best day will never win an election with a result like that, and he'll never win Ottawa South either.
17/04/19 Craig
The McGuinty family have become an institution in Ottawa South and the blowout win in 2015 can't be ignored. That said, even without them, this would be a safe Liberal seat. After all, this seat stayed solidly Liberal even in 2011 federally and 2018 provincially. Ottawa, if anything, is trending even more towards them in this day and age.
Yes, the Conservatives have a strong candidate, but the fundamentals are too strongly against them and the local candidates don't matter too much here. The trend towards populism on the right does not play well here either (or anywhere in Ottawa for that matter, look at 2018 vs. 2014 provincially, a rare regression) and the NDP have never been strong either. Hence, no matter what, the Liberals can rest easy here.
25/03/19 Terry K
It will be interesting to see how close of a race Eli Tannis will make it and how much support he can garner from the small business community. Though Eli Tannis is a strong candidate and a popular business man (Tannis Food Distributors) in the community, this seems to be a liberal lock.
15/03/19 Dr.Bear
Even in their worst elections ever (2011 federally and 2018 provincially) the Liberals still hung on to this seat. No reason that will change.
03/03/19 MF
Since its inception, Ottawa South has voted nothing but Liberal in federal elections and this was one of two ridings where the OLP won by more than 10 points during the '18 catastrophe.
24/02/19 Sam
Another riding in which it would be stunning for the Liberals to lose. David McGuinty is a strong incumbent in a seat which voted over 60% for the Liberals - not quite Atlantic levels but a hugely good result in Ontario. It also went Liberal at the provincial level despite their near-wipeout. An easy hold for the Liberals.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
This is a fools gold for the Tories. They've come close a few times but even in the best cases come up short so it really is just a question of whether the Liberals narrowly win this meaning they are heading to the opposition benches or win by a landslide thus heading back to government. The McGuinty family has held this for a long time and I expect this to continue at least federally.

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