Allison, Dean
	Bingham, Ian
	Jonker, Harold
	Morton, Miles
	Rahman, Nameer
	Teather, Terry
Incumbent:
	Dean Allison

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			90838 86533 34827 33588 989.15 km² 91.8/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Dean Allison **	24732	48.80%
	Phil Rose	16581	32.70%
	Nameer Rahman	5802	11.50%
	Sid Frere	1511	3.00%
	Harold Jonker	1234	2.40%
	Allan de Roo	797	1.60%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		26000	59.47%
		8400	19.21%
		6249	14.29%
		1970	4.51%
Other		1100	2.52%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Niagara West-Glanbrook    (90.42% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Welland    (7.94% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
St. Catharines    (1.64% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Sam Oosterhoff *	24394	52.81%
	Curtis Fric	13769	29.81%
	Joe Kanee	4859	10.52%
	Jessica Tillmanns	2590	5.61%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		10175	24.97%
		19482	47.80%
		7948	19.50%
		2348	5.76%
Other		803	1.97%

	21/10/19	Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188
CPC have held this riding for years, I think they hold on here tomorrow.
	08/10/19	R.O. 24.146.17.200
Dean Alliston has held this riding for some time, its mostly the rural part of Niagara region and includes Grimsby near Hamilton. More than likely riding stays conservative.
	26/08/19	seasaw 99.225.244.232
This one's a no Brainer. Dean Allison will win this riding, the question remains by how much.
	11/08/20	A.S. 99.225.32.21
I don't dispute that this is poised to stay Conservative; maybe the question is by how much--with ostensibly Lib-leaning exurban growth in Grimsby and Fonthill, the influx of wine-country expatriates, the possibility of a CHP candidate as well as a PPC candidate, it *could* be within the realm of possibility that Dean Allison sinks below 40%. But he'll still win, unless Oosterhoff is (or endorses) that CHP candidate.
	29/05/19	Craig 24.213.108.184
If Sam Oosterhoff can win big here despite being despised by the party establishment, I can't see how this goes anything but Conservative in this day and age. Removing the Hamilton Airport area and Binbrook have also turned this riding significantly to the right. The Liberal vote will likely drop significantly, while this is the anamoly in the region with the NDP quite weak. Dean Allison is quite socially conservative himself, which is a significant asset in this largely rural riding with a large religious population just far enough removed from the GTA influence. I do wonder if Oosterhoff will be a future MP once Dean Allison retires, since he seems more suited for federal politics?
	08/04/19	Sam 86.139.29.22
There's little chance of anything other than a Conservative hold here. They only narrowly missed out on the 50% mark last time.
	24/02/19	M. Lunn 174.7.100.252
Unlike the other Niagara ridings, this is fairly rural with no real industrial base and has a large Dutch Reformed community so regardless of how they perform overall, I expect the Tories to easily hold this one.