Election Prediction Project

Niagara West
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:54:40

Constituency Profile


Allison, Dean

Bingham, Ian

Jonker, Harold

Morton, Miles

Rahman, Nameer

Teather, Terry


Dean Allison

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



989.15 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Dean Allison ** 2473248.80%
Phil Rose 1658132.70%
Nameer Rahman 580211.50%
Sid Frere 15113.00%
Harold Jonker 12342.40%
Allan de Roo 7971.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 11002.52%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Niagara West-Glanbrook
   (90.42% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (7.94% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   St. Catharines
   (1.64% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Sam Oosterhoff * 2439452.81%
Curtis Fric 1376929.81%
Joe Kanee 485910.52%
Jessica Tillmanns 25905.61%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8031.97%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
CPC have held this riding for years, I think they hold on here tomorrow.
08/10/19 R.O.
Dean Alliston has held this riding for some time, its mostly the rural part of Niagara region and includes Grimsby near Hamilton. More than likely riding stays conservative.
26/08/19 seasaw
This one's a no Brainer. Dean Allison will win this riding, the question remains by how much.
11/08/20 A.S.
I don't dispute that this is poised to stay Conservative; maybe the question is by how much--with ostensibly Lib-leaning exurban growth in Grimsby and Fonthill, the influx of wine-country expatriates, the possibility of a CHP candidate as well as a PPC candidate, it *could* be within the realm of possibility that Dean Allison sinks below 40%. But he'll still win, unless Oosterhoff is (or endorses) that CHP candidate.
29/05/19 Craig
If Sam Oosterhoff can win big here despite being despised by the party establishment, I can't see how this goes anything but Conservative in this day and age. Removing the Hamilton Airport area and Binbrook have also turned this riding significantly to the right. The Liberal vote will likely drop significantly, while this is the anamoly in the region with the NDP quite weak.
Dean Allison is quite socially conservative himself, which is a significant asset in this largely rural riding with a large religious population just far enough removed from the GTA influence. I do wonder if Oosterhoff will be a future MP once Dean Allison retires, since he seems more suited for federal politics?
08/04/19 Sam
There's little chance of anything other than a Conservative hold here. They only narrowly missed out on the 50% mark last time.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Unlike the other Niagara ridings, this is fairly rural with no real industrial base and has a large Dutch Reformed community so regardless of how they perform overall, I expect the Tories to easily hold this one.

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