Election Prediction Project

Niagara Falls
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:54:36

Constituency Profile


Baldinelli, Tony

Barker, Brian

Kaiser, Andrea

O'Connor, Sandra

O'Connor, Tricia

Strange, Mike

Taylor, Alexander


Rob Nicholson

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



508.81 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Rob Nicholson ** 2723542.10%
Ron Planche 2231834.50%
Carolynn Ioannoni 1352520.90%
Steven Soos 16332.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2590.48%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Niagara Falls
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Wayne Gates * 3016150.79%
Chuck Mcshane 2112635.58%
Dean Demizio 55549.35%
Karen Fraser 20573.46%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 10372.04%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
For the first time since 2004 the CPC run someone other than Rob Nicholson here I still think the CPC hold on to this riding. A riding they would have kept through the Chretien yrs. had there been a united right.
17/10/19 R.O.
Mainstreet appears to have done a second poll for Niagara Falls and it includes Mike Strange and the results are still the same , new cpc candidate Tony Baldinelli leads liberal Andrea Kaiser.
Quito Maggi? @quito_maggi · 17h17 hours ago
And an update of Niagara Falls with all candidate names including independent Mike Strange, Conservative newcomer @tbaldi1 leads with Liberal @votekaiser in second#elxn43
10/10/19 Strange Days Ahead
For those quoting the Mainstreet Poll, it's important to point out that they did not prompt for Mike Strange during the poll, calling into question the credibility of the results.
Mike is extremely popular in Niagara Falls and the surrounding area, finishing on top of the recent Niagara Falls council race by a significant margin over the candidate who finished second (the top 8 serve at-large for the entire city - he beat the second place finisher by over 3000 votes, and almost 2 to 1 to the eighth place finisher who still won her seat). Those commenting not from the riding and looking at this from a macro perspective of the national campaigns and past results may not fully grasp or understand the significance of his candidacy, or just how *popular* and well-liked he is in the city and the surrounding area. The Niagara Falls riding tends to vote for people who are popular locally regardless of their political affiliation or the larger campaigns run by the leader of a party, and Mike Strange is by far the most popular person running. Mike is going to finish with a significant percentage of the vote - exactly how much is anyone's guess, but it is not entirely out of the question that he could actually win, especially considering the local political and business support his campaign has in the riding.
Because of that, even if he doesn't win, it is also anyone's guess as to who actually who will.
08/10/19 R.O.
Cpc have a small lead here with new candidate Tony Baldinelli. longtime mp Rob Nicholson finally decided to retire , he had been the conservative candidate for Niagara Falls in every election since 1984 , with the exception of 2000 the only year he didn’t run.
Tories lead in Niagara Falls, according to Mainstreet polls.By Marco Vigliotti. Published on Oct 8, 2019 9:49am
08/10/19 Marco Ricci
Mainstreet said on Twitter today that Tony Baldinelli ‘holds a narrow lead over liberal party challenger in Niagara Falls’
16/09/19 Dr Bear
I am surprised I have not posted about this seat sooner, as I have given this a lot of consideration. I think TCTC is the correct call at this moment. Nicholson bolstered CPC fortunes in NF as he was personally popular. Seeing that NDP support is quite low in Ontario, there is a pool of potential voters that could swing the Liberal vote to within striking range. Couple all that with the news today that the Bernier will be at the leader's debate for the PPC (giving them exposure which will likely hurt the CPC) and I see the makings of a race that will be closer than previous years.
11/08/20 A.S.
If *this* isn't the kind of riding where the Trudeau Liberals will do well in, then what are the other two Niagara ridings they presently hold? I think some predictors here are overstating the purported Obama/Trump-era blue-collar desertion of the Grits here, or reading too much into the Wayne Gates-era provincial results + 2018's Wynne collapse--and whatever Nicholson's personal strengths, he also arguably had a relatively weak Liberal opponent and relatively strong NDP opponent cancelling one another out in 2015. And by "relatively weak", I mean that 2015 wasn't necessarily a high bar for the party--in fact, the Libs have something of an illustrious history in NF (think of Judy LaMarsh in the 1960s), and the rudiments of that somewhat overlap with Wayne Gates' present provincial strength to the point where I can definitely see it migrating Justin-ward in Rob Nicholson's absence, especially now that the Libs don't have the third-party stigma they had going into the 2015 election. In fact, I'd rank this somewhere around the top of presently-CPC-held Liberal pickup prospects *in the country*--not that there's many...
12/06/19 Craig
I have to disagree on Niagara Falls being too close to call at this point. This is NOT the kind of riding the Trudeau Liberals will do well in, especially now that they have a record. Niagara Falls is generally a working class riding which wouldn't be suited to them at all. A stronger NDP would give them a strong chance especially with a solid candidate (Wayne Gates would be a big coup for them), but they are very weak right now.
Yes, Rob Nicholson is retiring, but he's not as much of a factor here as we think. As long as the NDP remains weak, the Conservatives should hold this - the Liberal ceiling is way too low - 2015 was probably their high bar.
02/06/19 seasaw
I'm changing my prediction from CPC to TCTC. With Mr Nicholson gone, and the recent poll numbers showing CPC support down, while Liberal support up, this riding's ripe for the picking. I will make a final prediction close to election day, but I will say this, if the Liberals are in a position to win, this riding is definitely theirs.
21/04/19 seasaw
Another prediction made based on today's poll numbers. It might change closer to election day. With Mr. Nicholson's retirement, while the CPC are still the favourites, it's by no means a safe seat for them. If the Liberal numbers improve, they'll have a very good chance of winning here. We'll say Conservative for now, but that might change
10/04/19 Sam
Even with Rob Nicholson's retirement, the Conservatives are the favourites. The provincial NDP win can be attributed to the popularity of Wayne Gates, who didn't increase his vote share that much - suggesting most of it is either existing personal vote or solid NDP support. Rob Nicholson also has a personal vote, but this is a less urban riding which favours the Conservatives, and has gone for them by huge margins. I expect a Conservative hold.
09/04/19 Right Honourable Adult
The previous predictor had to go and say it, eh? Now that we know no incumbent will be on the ballot this fall, this will make the race a little tighter but it's safe to say at this point that the Liberals will not be contending this unless they find a very high-profile candidate to run for them. That leaves us with the CPC & NDP (the Greens don't have much traction here); while the NDP have a viable chance in Niagara region, given their near sweep provincially last year, that had more to do with a solid campaign headed by a popular leader who also hails from down the road in Hamilton and displays the values that are prominent in this part of the province once you pass Burlington. For now, it's the Tories to lose...but that could change!
24/02/19 M. Lunn
This is not a solid Tory riding by any means and if Rob Nicholson were not running I would put this as too close to call, after all it went NDP provincially. But much like Wayne Gates, Rob Nicholson is quite popular personally so that will be enough to put him over the top. Once he retires then this will probably go back to being a bellwether.

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