Election Prediction Project

Niagara Centre
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:54:31

Constituency Profile


Allen, Malcolm

Badawey, Vance

Bylsma, Nic

Jeffs, April

Sainz-Nieto, Andrew

Tomaino, Michael

Walker, Robert


Vance Badawey

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



301.26 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Vance Badawey 1951335.70%
Malcolm Allen ** 1721831.50%
Leanna Villella 1624829.70%
David Clow 13162.40%
Jody Di Bartolomeo 2910.50%
Ron J. Walker 960.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4450.92%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jeff Burch 2161844.23%
April Jeffs 1833337.51%
Benoit Mercier 577911.82%
Joe Dias 18033.69%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4351.02%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Interesting that Singh was here. I still think Vance keeps the seat Liberal but Singh being here last week could increase the interest in the riding.
18/10/19 Niagara Guy
The Singh upswing is real and judging by the number of people who showed up on a rainy Thursday morning to greet him at the Blue Star restaurant in Welland this week, the riding is going back to the orange column. NDP has strong roots here and former MP Malcolm Allen is running again. Campaigns do make a difference!
18/10/19 R.O.
This is a tough one to predict , its mostly been a liberal or ndp riding in recent years. conservatives haven’t won the riding but came very close in 2008 and 2011. Former ndp mp Malcom Allen is back as the ndp candidate and his campaign was boosted by a visit by Jagmeet Singh this week. Liberal incumbent Vance Badaway was first elected in 2015 and had been first election he ran in this riding. cpc candidate is April Jeffs who had also been the provincial pc candidate in same riding and came a close second in 2018 election. Has the look and feel of a 3 way race .
11/10/19 jeff316
Niagara's inherent NDPness is on the wane. The results in the recent provincial election are an ‘anyone but Doug, anyone by Wynne’ outlier. Allen will place third.
11/08/20 A.S.
Whether it holds as such until e-day remains to be seen, but I'm surprised/not surprised that Malcolm Allen's polling so poorly (and it'd be the second time something like that's happened this decade: ex-Lib MP John Maloney tried again in 2011 and only got 14%). And open seat or not, April Jeffs actually didn't do that badly in 2018 considering she was running against the seemingly impregnable legacy of Swart and Kormos and Forster (and she was a parachute from no-longer-within-the-riding Wainfleet). Let's remember that this is an archetypally "Obama/Trump" sort of riding--but let's also remember that the provincial NDP legacy being echoed federally is really a Layton-era phenomenon; prior to the AudreyAlexa slumber, the federal NDP/CCF tended to be an above-average yet superfluous factor within a Franco-Ontarian-fueled blue-collar Liberal stronghold (it even held firm through the Diefenbaker era, though it went Tory for a term under Mulroney). And while conventional wisdom might dictate that that historic base of support is an anachronism in the Obama-Trump era (and particularly under a wuss leader like Justin), Mainstreet seems to be showing Badawey defying such conventional wisdom even w/Malcolm Allen in the picture--for all we know, it's Allen splitting the blue-collar-populist vote w/Jeffs, rather than splitting the left-vote with Badawey...
23/07/19 seasaw
Vance Badaway has done a relatively good job, representing the area. NDP don't seem to be a factor this time around, the Tories, though they've come close a couple of times, haven't won here. So, Liberal hold.
18/07/19 Marco Ricci
Mainstreet Research poll:
Liberal MP Vance Badawey would comfortably win re-election in his Niagara Centre riding if voters headed to the polls today
39% Vance Badawey
28% April Jeffs
15% Malcolm Allen
08/07/19 Sam
Now we're nearer, Iam ready to call this for the NDP. The CPC can win on a vote split, but this riding doesn't seem to be that ripe for them, as Laurence Putnam pointed out. Equally Malcolm Allen maintains his position as the NDP standard bearer, whereas April Jeffs has lesser recognition and did poorly against Jeff Burch despite this being open seat. Obviously Vance Badawey has a good incumbency advantage - his popularity Probably sealed it for him last time, but his margin is very vulnerable and he hasn't shine as much in Ottawa as when he was mayor. The NDP should make it here, it'll be close but I don't think any other party can feel good about this.
03/07/19 Laurence Putnam
I tend to agree that while I fully expect the national results to be an unmitigated disaster for the NDP, this riding could be an exception. This is a three-way dogfight in a riding that's not afraid to buck the trend; given the deep NDP roots here I have to ask myself which of these three local candidates is the scrappiest on the campaign trail and I would say it's Allen - I'll give him the edge here.
It is only an edge - but it would be my tendency to guess that if Jeffs couldn't pull it off provincially running for the party that formed government, that she won't do it now, either. I realize there's a vote split involved here that wasn't present in the last provincial election but neither can it be denied that the Tories seem to top out around 30% on average here - 2011 being an exception (and they still lost).
21/05/19 Right Honourable Adult
While the NDP isn't likely to do very well this year nationally, this riding is a natural fit for the party with a strong industrial base. If the advantages of the ex-MP reoffering, and a Liberal Party in retreat due to scandal, weren't enough, this riding is also particularly sensitive to the impact of steel duties and cross-border concessions in CUSMA. Advantage NDP here.
21/04/19 seasaw
This one's probably going to be a photo finish to the end. It's going to be a three horse race. Who's going to come ahead? We probably won't know until the last votes have been counted
11/04/19 ME
Malcalm Allen the former NDP MP announced he will run again in 2019...a rematch of 2015. Local polls show the NDP in the lead
04/04/19 Sam
In my view the most likely result here is a Conservative victory, but that could easily change as all three major parties have a fighting chance, even the Liberals, who on a good night will benefit from split opposition.
04/03/19 Kumar Patel
Any of the three major parties can win this working class riding. Lot's of NDP-CPC switchers here to the detriment of the LPC.

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