Bauer, Walter
	Baxter, Dorian
	Brown, Lois
	Goble, Laurie
	Kelly, Yvonne
	McCaughtrie, Andrew
	Van Bynen, Tony
Incumbent:
	Kyle Peterson

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			117418 109457 40722 39769 59.35 km² 1978.3/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Kyle Peterson	25508	45.20%
	Lois Brown **	24057	42.60%
	Yvonne Kelly	4806	8.50%
	Vanessa Long	1331	2.40%
	Dorian Baxter	762	1.30%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		25558	54.06%
		7467	15.79%
		11207	23.70%
		2071	4.38%
Other		976	2.06%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Newmarket-Aurora    (99.08% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
York-Simcoe    (0.92% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Christine Elliott	24813	47.71%
	Melissa Williams	12405	23.85%
	Chris Ballard *	11840	22.76%
	Michelle Bourdeau	1859	3.57%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		19062	44.12%
		15865	36.72%
		5157	11.94%
		1749	4.05%
Other		1371	3.17%

	20/10/19	Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188
CPC came close here in 2015. Even with Newmarket mayor Tony Van Bynen running here for the Liberals I think the CPC win the seat back.
	11/10/19	prognosticator15 72.141.255.189
This is a traditional swing riding where attention to economic issues like decline of the middle class and high Liberal taxes, combined with pragmatic approach to issues like climate hysteria for progressivist control (even if without acknowledging the faulty premise for such hysteria in the first place) favor its long-known former Conservative MP. CPC can still lose election, but win this riding; if they do not win even here, it would be only with a kind of result that sees Scheer resigning on election night - and it will be almost the same surprise as not winning back several Liberal-held Alberta ridings.
	08/10/19	R.O. 24.146.17.200
Lois Brown has been the cpc candidate here since 2006 and served as mp from 2008-2015. The liberal who beat her in 2015, Kyle Peterson decided not to run again. Despite the fact he had only served 1 term in Ottawa. Difficult for the liberals to keep the riding without an incumbent. in what has been a conservative/liberal swing riding lately .
	15/09/19	The Jackal 99.236.206.117
I saw this as a minor upset in 2015. But with Peterson not running this is almost certain to go back to Lois Brown.
	10/08/20	Tom 99.254.31.166
This should be a pickup for the Conservatives. Christine Elliott won in a landslide in the provincial election. Kyle Peterson won a very close race in the context of a Liberal majority in 2015. If the Liberals lose seats, this riding should be one of the first to flip back blue. Van Bynen was not a popular Mayor in Newmarket and will not be able to hold the seat for the Liberals.
	08/08/20	A.S. 99.225.32.21
Re the not-as-Con-slam-dunk-as-it-looks argument: even with Christine Elliott as the standard-bearer, the provincial PCs got their lowest York Region share here last year. Not ethnoburban/exurban/trashburban enough, IOW.
	17/07/19	Sam 103.245.77.50
I agree with Kumar - this should be TCTC with Vsn Bynen in, which was a surprise. Whilst the CPC still have an edge in this district, Van Bynen as a standard bearer will keep the Liberals energised and in it.
	09/06/19	Kumar Patel 99.247.206.186
Time to change this back to TCTC. 1. Former three-term Newmarket mayor Tony Van Bynen is seeking the Liberal nomination for this riding. 2. The re-distributed Newmarket - Aurora is less conservative than Aurora Oak Ridges Richmond Hill as evident by the 2015 and 2018 election results. 3. The LPC's poll numbers are very competitive in Ontario right now. Doug Ford's unpopularity is dragging the CPC numbers in the suburbs + enough time has passed since the SNC fiasco.
	06/04/19	Legolas 109.70.100.19
CPC barely lost this seat in 2015 and Lois Brown is running again, while Kyle Peterson is retiring. With the way polling is going currently the CPC should win it back.
	01/04/19	Kumar Patel 99.254.33.154
Under current circumstances, the Conservatives will win this riding. However, there is a little more than six months till the election and the Liberals can still turn the ship around (especially in Ontario).
	31/03/19	mrpredictor 192.0.165.46
My hometown region, which has always favored conservative politics, strikes me as very likely to slip back to the conservatives this election. Kyle Peterson is not seeking reelection, making this outcome all the more likely. Things can change. Candidates could influence things one way or another. But right now, this riding is absolutely heading this direction.
	29/03/19	Sam 86.188.99.49
And to reinforce my previous projection, Kyle Peterson has announced he is not running for re-election. It's now for the Conservatives to take.
	03/03/19	Sam 81.141.252.35
Similarly to Richmond Hill and Hastings, a Conservative gain here is likely, with a rematch from 2015 and the fundamentals in the York area favouring the Conservatives. Although the Liberals aren't defeated yet this is one of their most vulnerable ridings which they probably only win if they are increasing their nationwide majority.