Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:54:29

Constituency Profile


Bauer, Walter

Baxter, Dorian

Brown, Lois

Goble, Laurie

Kelly, Yvonne

McCaughtrie, Andrew

Van Bynen, Tony


Kyle Peterson

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



59.35 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kyle Peterson 2550845.20%
Lois Brown ** 2405742.60%
Yvonne Kelly 48068.50%
Vanessa Long 13312.40%
Dorian Baxter 7621.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 9762.06%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.08% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.92% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Christine Elliott 2481347.71%
Melissa Williams 1240523.85%
Chris Ballard * 1184022.76%
Michelle Bourdeau 18593.57%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 13713.17%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
CPC came close here in 2015. Even with Newmarket mayor Tony Van Bynen running here for the Liberals I think the CPC win the seat back.
11/10/19 prognosticator15
This is a traditional swing riding where attention to economic issues like decline of the middle class and high Liberal taxes, combined with pragmatic approach to issues like climate hysteria for progressivist control (even if without acknowledging the faulty premise for such hysteria in the first place) favor its long-known former Conservative MP. CPC can still lose election, but win this riding; if they do not win even here, it would be only with a kind of result that sees Scheer resigning on election night - and it will be almost the same surprise as not winning back several Liberal-held Alberta ridings.
08/10/19 R.O.
Lois Brown has been the cpc candidate here since 2006 and served as mp from 2008-2015. The liberal who beat her in 2015, Kyle Peterson decided not to run again. Despite the fact he had only served 1 term in Ottawa. Difficult for the liberals to keep the riding without an incumbent. in what has been a conservative/liberal swing riding lately .
15/09/19 The Jackal
I saw this as a minor upset in 2015. But with Peterson not running this is almost certain to go back to Lois Brown.
10/08/20 Tom
This should be a pickup for the Conservatives. Christine Elliott won in a landslide in the provincial election. Kyle Peterson won a very close race in the context of a Liberal majority in 2015. If the Liberals lose seats, this riding should be one of the first to flip back blue. Van Bynen was not a popular Mayor in Newmarket and will not be able to hold the seat for the Liberals.
08/08/20 A.S.
Re the not-as-Con-slam-dunk-as-it-looks argument: even with Christine Elliott as the standard-bearer, the provincial PCs got their lowest York Region share here last year. Not ethnoburban/exurban/trashburban enough, IOW.
17/07/19 Sam
I agree with Kumar - this should be TCTC with Vsn Bynen in, which was a surprise. Whilst the CPC still have an edge in this district, Van Bynen as a standard bearer will keep the Liberals energised and in it.
09/06/19 Kumar Patel
Time to change this back to TCTC.
1. Former three-term Newmarket mayor Tony Van Bynen is seeking the Liberal nomination for this riding.
2. The re-distributed Newmarket - Aurora is less conservative than Aurora Oak Ridges Richmond Hill as evident by the 2015 and 2018 election results.
3. The LPC's poll numbers are very competitive in Ontario right now. Doug Ford's unpopularity is dragging the CPC numbers in the suburbs + enough time has passed since the SNC fiasco.
06/04/19 Legolas
CPC barely lost this seat in 2015 and Lois Brown is running again, while Kyle Peterson is retiring. With the way polling is going currently the CPC should win it back.
01/04/19 Kumar Patel
Under current circumstances, the Conservatives will win this riding. However, there is a little more than six months till the election and the Liberals can still turn the ship around (especially in Ontario).
31/03/19 mrpredictor
My hometown region, which has always favored conservative politics, strikes me as very likely to slip back to the conservatives this election. Kyle Peterson is not seeking reelection, making this outcome all the more likely.
Things can change. Candidates could influence things one way or another. But right now, this riding is absolutely heading this direction.
29/03/19 Sam
And to reinforce my previous projection, Kyle Peterson has announced he is not running for re-election. It's now for the Conservatives to take.
03/03/19 Sam
Similarly to Richmond Hill and Hastings, a Conservative gain here is likely, with a rematch from 2015 and the fundamentals in the York area favouring the Conservatives. Although the Liberals aren't defeated yet this is one of their most vulnerable ridings which they probably only win if they are increasing their nationwide majority.

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