Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:54:05

Constituency Profile


Bains, Navdeep

Buchanan, Prudence

Chilelli, Frank

Clarke, Nikki

Gora, Tahir

Porter, Christina

Varughese, Tom


Navdeep Bains

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



97.20 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Navdeep Bains 2616559.10%
Jagdish Grewal 1170126.40%
Dianne Douglas 545012.30%
Heather Mercer 7371.70%
Naresh Tharani 2030.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1110.30%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Mississauga-Brampton South
   (48.46% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (33.13% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (18.42% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Deepak Anand 1471239.12%
Nikki Clarke 1235132.84%
Amrit Mangat * 781320.77%
Caroline Roach 11873.16%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8452.82%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberal hold for the cabinet minister, Navdeep Bains.
18/10/19 A.a7
This is my second prediction here and I will say that this seat probably goes liberal on the 21st. The NDP has recently had a surge in polling and while this will help them in other seats, I do not think it will be a big shift in Mississauga Malton and the liberals will win the seat. I predict that this will be the numbers for the 4 main parties.
LPC: 42%
CPC: 32%
NDP: 21%
GPC: 4%
15/10/19 Geo
Navdeep Bains has a high profile position as Cabinet minister; the Conservative candidate Tom Varughese is maintaining a high profile. The riding will be a lot more competitive this time. On Election Day this is going blue.
I tend to agree with Dr. Bear rather than with BG. Actually, NDP campaign is quite strong in Peel, and if anything, the NDP will be the one that upsets Bains, but it is unlikely. While other Peel ridings remain very competitive, this may be the strongest Liberal hold in the area. The incumbent is high profile, with important ministerial portfolios that make him visible, while the riding demographics are perhaps most left-wing in Mississauga (and the way Libs have become extreme progressives, Lib immoderation does mean they are less vulnerable to the NDP at least on ideology grounds if not on other grounds). On top, ethnic name matters in South Asian communities that tend to vote for parties of the left. Lib hold.
08/10/19 Mizisuga
The debate may influence the South Asian population here and in Brampton, with Singh getting nationwide positive exposure. Some level of vote splitting may make this riding interesting. However, Malton still leans Liberal for now.
03/10/19 BG
Week NDP campaign + Liberal collapse = PC win
01/10/19 Dr Bear
Interesting. Several CPC predictions; two submitted on the same day; two from the same IP address (and those two are both written by someone with very poor grammar)...draw your own conclusions from these facts...
Despite the shenanigans of some CPC supporters, this riding will not fall to the CPC. Too strong of a Liberal candidate; too weak of an NDP campaign to syphon off Liberal votes; general ‘meh’ about the election (people not really seeing a need to turf the Liberals at this time). This should work in Bain's favour. Other ridings in the Peel region are ripe for CPC picking, but not this one.
22/09/19 A.a7
This is probably a very safe seat for the Liberals unless something dramatically changes during the campaign period. I don't think the 2018 provincial results will have the NDP as popular this time around but if it happens, the Conservatives will probably barely win with around 34-38% as a result of a split left.
21/09/19 BG
I think this one is too close to call right now. The Liberal have a strong candidate, but Tom Varughese is running a strong campaign. I wouldn’t count out a Conservative gain.
07/08/20 A.S.
Bains did get bumped upward by opposition circumstances last time, true; but his was the likeliest Mississauga Lib pickup anyhow--ironically, Miss-Malton also saw 2018's *lowest* Mississauga Liberal share provincially, largely because it was the one Mississauga seat actively targeted by the NDP (justified by the Malton part's Jagmeetian recent past). And 2018's NDP provincial candidate is now 2019's NDP federal candidate, and the "phantom Jagmeet" effect could still benefit her--though not enough to undermine Bains (and remember that Malton itself remained the "Liberalest" part of Jagmeet's former provincial seat)
21/06/19 seasaw
The last time the Liberals won big, that's because it was a change election and the Conservative candidate was due to get turfed if he took the seat. The riding will be a lot more competitive this time around, however the Tories have to be at a better position than they are now to win
03/06/19 CM
While this probably one of the more safe Liberal seats in Peel, the effects of this past year will show up at voting time. I do not think 60% is achievable for the Liberals. With a better PC candidate, stronger NDP candidate and with the Green's continuing to grow, each will take a chunk of that 2015 vote. However, not enough to change the final outcome.
11/04/19 Right Honourable Adult
While it's been proven a possible riding for the Tories to win, this is probably the safest riding in Mississauga for the Liberals (or a close second after Miss-Centre). Having a minister who has been a prominent MP going back years doesn't hurt either.
04/04/19 Chris N
Even with the Liberals declining in the polls, I expect Bains to hold onto his seat in October. He’s a very well known Cabinet minister (and maybe future Liberal leader?) who gets a lot of press at high profile announcements and ribbon cutting ceremonies.
16/03/19 Sam
This was the best riding for the Liberals and has a great MP in Navdeep Bains. He's one of the better-perceived cabinet ministers, but ultimately he should win regardless.
22/02/19 Kumar Patel
Safe Liberal.
Mississauga Milton is the most Liberal-friendly ridings in Mississauga.
Navdeep Bains is a popular incumbent and a competent cabinet minister.

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