Election Prediction Project

Mississauga-Erin Mills
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:53:59

Constituency Profile


Alsabagh, Hazar

Boscarino-Gaetano, Remo

Khalid, Iqra

Tariq, Salman

Tawfilis, Hani


Iqra Khalid

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



33.75 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Iqra Khalid 2752049.70%
Bob Dechert ** 2171639.20%
Michelle Bilek 52069.40%
Andrew Roblin 9051.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 660.14%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.98% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.02% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Sheref Sabawy 1963141.61%
Farina Hassan 1302127.6%
Imran Mian 1196525.36%
Libby Yuill 12962.75%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 13853.91%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Khalid has been the victim of some unsavory stuff by Canada Proud. I still think she'll keep the riding tomorrow.
13/10/19 R.O.
This riding has typically seen close liberal/conservative races and would seem to be the case this year. The conservatives actually held this riding from 2008-2015 when Bob Dechert mp however they have a new candidate this year in Hani Tawfilis who is facing 1 term liberal mp Iqra Khalid. You also have to wonder how the ndp does in Peel as Singh is from Brampton and had been an mpp for that area.
07/08/20 A.S.
Khalid's actually been a high-profile caucus performer in a way that could well win her brownie points with the electorate...or, perhaps, opprobrium from Canada Proud types who'd seek to equate her with "The Squad". And with that profile and without an incumbent Bob Dechert to push overboard, it'd take more of a universal 905 anti-Liberal sweep to remove her now--even if Dechert defied the Libsissauga rubber-stamp conventional wisdom in 2008.
08/07/19 seasaw
@Craig, You keep referring to provincial election and setting vote ceilings based on them, but l've said this a thousand times before, never confuse the federal with provincial elections, the two are different, issues are different. Keep in mind the provincial Tories had less than two months to prepare for an election that their opponents had spent over two years to get ready for. That being said, this riding is too early to call at this point. It could go either way, we have to wait till the last week to predict this one
29/05/19 Craig
Just another unpredictable Mississauga seat. Erin Mills has had crazy candidates before (Carolyn Parrish, anyone?) but it is definitely a swing area in the grand scheme of things. It probably won't be decided until the last few weeks and will largely depend on national campaigns.
As the Liberals are generally stronger here than in the northern 905, they should be seen as having an advantage, but the Conservative still got nearly 40% in 2015. They didn't improve much in 2018 provincially (relying on a vote split), so it is likely the low 40s is the CPC ceiling. As long as the NDP stays weak, Iqra Khalid should return to Parliament. However, this is the kind of riding that Jagmeet Singh might be able to do well in, which could be a critical vote split to the blue team...so stay tuned.
26/03/19 Sam
This will probably be a close riding, with the Conservatives gaining in the 905. As was said it will be hard to determine the outcome of this for a while.
25/02/19 seasaw
Another riding where we have to wait till the week before the vote to predict

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster