Election Prediction Project

Mississauga East-Cooksville
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:53:56

Constituency Profile


Di Carlo, Anna

Fonseca, Peter

Lizon, Wladyslaw

Rasheed, Maha

Rizvi, Syed

Takacs, Tom


Peter Fonseca

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



32.08 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Peter Fonseca 2815454.20%
Wladyslaw Lizon ** 1835335.40%
Ali Naqvi 44818.60%
Jaymini Bhikha 7661.50%
Tim Sullivan 1630.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2100.47%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Mississauga East-Cooksville
   (78.23% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Mississauga-Brampton South
   (21.77% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Kaleed Rasheed 1786241.15%
Dipika Damerla * 1312330.23%
Tom Takacs 987122.74%
Basia Krzyzanowski 14983.45%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 12243.32%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Rematch here between Liberal and CPC. I think the Liberals win the rematch. Fonseca seems to be hard working MP.
15/10/19 Sam
I don't agree that this never could've been a race, as I said before - but I am in agreement with Mizisuga who said that Fonseca should win. His local popularity is merely a reinforcement of the conditions he has - it will serve him no harm in a year he should win anyway; being a Liberal in this riding, I'd be surprised if he didn't win comfortably.
11/10/19 Mizisuga
Barring a major Liberal stumble, Cooksville will reelect Fonseca, who is a relatively popular MP.
07/10/19 R.O.
This riding has typically been a liberal/conservative race and mostly a liberal riding in recent history. Although cpc candidate Wladyslaw Lizon was actually mp for the riding briefly from 2011-2015 after a slim cpc victory here that election. The ndp or greens have never been much of a factor here.
07/08/20 A.S.
Above all, it's a Fonseca riding even more than it's a Liberal riding; and the fact that he only barely lost (and Lizon only barely won) in 2011 says everything. But Lizon didn't lose *that* much ground in 2015; and one might argue that the riding's "trending Con" at least insofar as the broader Polish-Canadian electorate is "trending Con". But in the end, thanks to Mississauga's idiosyncratic salad-bowl multiculturalism, the riding isn't Polish *enough*--Lizon isn't enough to swing things blue-ward the way Stan Haidasz used to be able to swing things red-ward in Parkdale...
29/05/19 Craig
It definitely helps that Peter Fonseca is very well liked and the Liberal brand is still reasonably popular in Mississauga East-Cooksville. For that reason, Fonseca should be considered the favourite to win again. Other than the affluent lakeshore ridings, Liberal support has generally held up better here than elsewhere in the 905 during meltdown elections. In good times, they usually win easily.
Lizon may bring some of the Polish vote on side, but he's definitely the underdog. It would take a real slide to swing this seat blue, especially given the weakness of the NDP. Hence, this should be a Liberal hold unless their campaign falls apart.
07/04/19 Right Honourable Adult
The NDP will be, and have always been, a non-factor here. During the 2011 federal/2018 provincial Liberal meltdowns, they still managed to stay in second place while the party dropped to third elsewhere. Even still, Wlad Lizon running again will at least temper the Polish vote from moving to Peter Fonseca and gives the Tories a shot at retaking the riding. A tough battle, to be sure, but quite doable.
16/03/19 Sam
Peter Fonseca was a big boost to the Liberals here, but even so, this could go Conservative in a blue wave, and so with former MP Wlad Lizon running again, it wouldn't be a surprise.
02/03/19 seasaw
While this could be regarded as one of the safest Liberal seats in 905, and Peter Fonseca has been a very good MP, with Liberal leadership on shaky grounds, it's a little premature to call it for the Liberals. We know the scandal isn't going to go away, and it might cost the PM his job. TCTC for now
28/02/19 Kumar Patel
This is a Liberal friendly riding. The Liberals put a strong showing here even under the Ignatieff and Wynne meltdowns.

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