Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:53:47

Constituency Profile


Chung, Sarah

Hines, Gregory

Ho, Alan

Kao, Elvin

Saroya, Bob


Bob Saroya

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



84.34 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bob Saroya 2460549.40%
Bang-Gu Jiang 2159643.30%
Colleen Zimmerman 25285.10%
Elvin Kao 11102.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3760.96%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Oak Ridges-Markham
   (52.42% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (47.58% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Billy Pang 2930562.43%
Amanda Yeung Collucci 845618.01%
Sylvie David 777816.57%
Deborah Moolman 9962.12%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5461.58%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
A surprise CPC pickup in 2015, I think they keep the seat in 2019. Saroya's a minister in a Scheer government IMO.
07/10/19 R.O.
This was a surprise cpc pick up in 2015, considering the liberals dominated in Toronto area that election. Since then Bob Saroya has increased his presence in Ottawa and held positions in the opposition shadow cabinet.
22/09/19 The Jackal
Given the polling theses days and the results of both 2015 and 2018 I can safely call this a Conserative hold.
12/09/19 PY
I wouldn't call this for the Conservatives yet as popular municipal councillor Alan Ho is running for the Liberals this time around and will be one to watch.
A word of warning: the Chinese community (of which I'm a member) should not be treated as a bloc. I don't necessarily agree with everyone in my family on some of the pressing *external* issues of the day, but those won't be of the utmost importance at the ballot box and neither will the fallout from the SNC-Lavalin affair; in fact, the general response has been not unlike that of la Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ) who said in July that the company has only itself to blame.
This is pretty much just another riding in which the respective national campaigns for the Liberals and Conservatives will be key. That's it.
08/08/20 A.S.
We're talking about the second best PC riding in last year's provincial election, and the site of this year's Ford Fest. But it *could* be worth monitoring whatever long term effect the development of Downtown Markham shall have; it's territory the Libs held in '15, and could ultimately wind up operating much as NYCC and MCC do as it densifys. (Momentarily countering that, though, is how continuing sprawl to the N works on the Cons' behalf. Cathedraltown, erstwhile home of the infamous cow-on-stilts, was the provincial PCs' best node last year.)
06/04/19 Legolas
An easy CPC prediction for me here. Saroya took almost 50% of the vote in 2015 despite the party crashing in Toronto, and the provincial PC candidate received a victory margin which would look less out of place in Rural Alberta than suburban Toronto. The Chinese vote has really coalesced behind the CPC and PCs and this is the type of seat where you notice how fast it's changed compared to even as recently as 2008.
02/04/19 The Hedonist
John McCallum's (Liberal) former riding, the beauty of a Chinese ambassador we had, helped put this further in the blue column with his handling of the Huawei affair, which has soured Chinese-Canadian relations. Unfortunately for him and his party, this riding is heavily Chinese and they have been voting increasingly more right ever since Harper won his majorities in the 00s with GTA strength.
With the Cons polling at a solid 35+ nationally right now and even stronger in Ontario, and with the Carbon tax just about to take effect, McCallum's work as Ambassador.... we can lock this up as a Blue hold.
16/03/19 Sam
The Conservatives nearly won 50% here last time, and to lose this time they would have to shed a fair few votes, which is unlikely in a 905, heavily Chinese riding. The Liberals should have won this last time but they didn't; it certainly seems like they have lost their chance.
16/03/19 Craig
Solid Conservative hold. We've seen in the last few years the Chinese-Canadian vote swing hard to the right - noticeable both here and in BC. They got over 60% provincially and should get a similar result federally. The immigration issue may not be helpful to them, but unlike in other parts of the GTA, it probably won't be a deal-breaker, either.
Bob Saroya will likely get some additional colleagues from adjacent ridings this time, though, even if on the opposition benches still.
22/02/19 Kumar Patel
Leans Conservative, but not necessarily safe Conservative.
It's an understatement to say that Chinese-Canadian voters (whether they were born in Canada or elsewhere) in Ontario have drifted to the right over the last few elections.
Scheer's rhetoric on immigration is likely not to be a deal breaker in this riding.
However, the Liberals have a chance should Scheer could come across as tone deaf to the concerns of suburban Ontario (lack of action on infrastructure, housing etc).

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