Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:53:40

Constituency Profile


Macwan, Josephbai

Ng, Mary

Remedios, Peter

Sahbaz, Paul

Williams, Chris

Yuan, Alex


Mary Ng

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



41.89 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

John McCallum ** 2387855.70%
Jobson Easow 1384932.30%
Senthi Chelliah 459510.70%
Joshua Russell 5351.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1870.49%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (75.16% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (24.84% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Logan Kanapathi 1894350.45%
Juanita Nathan 916024.4%
Cindy Hackelberg 801021.33%
Caryn Bergmann 8592.29%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3941.26%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
The by-election was closer than it should have been. Still the Liberal is in cabinet so I think that will lead her to a bigger win tomorrow.
10/09/19 South Islander
Mary Ng will easily hold this. The CPC coming within 13% of winning in a mid-term byelection (while the LPC maintained a majority of the vote) is hardly a sign that they have a good chance of defeating a cabinet minister incumbent in a general election. It is well established that byelections generally favour opposition parties. In any case, Chinese-Canadian voters are not so monolithically Conservative so as to doom LPC chances here (particularly when there's a Chinese-Canadian cabinet minister on the ballot). If there was a Chinese-Canadian swing to the CPC, then much of it has already occurred during the Harper years (while they were in government), and I've seen no indication that it has continued after their ouster. In any case, Chinese-Canadian voters only make up 35% of the electorate in this very diverse riding. If Chinese-Canadian voters have already swung heavily to the CPC, then how much of the recent narrowing of the margin is attributable to that swing among those 35%, and how much further can it actually swing? Can it overcome a 22% general election or 13% byelection margin? Can the CPC realistically expect a massive swing against an incumbent Chinese-Canadian cabinet minister? I don't buy it for one second. The math makes no sense. OLP performance in the 2018 provincial election is also not indicative of current LPC support, because 1) most usual OLP/LPC voters lent their votes to the NDP or PCs to oust an unpopular government, and 2) most of them already have severe voter's remorse. Based on recent polling, the CPC are poised to do no better in ON than they did in 2015.
08/08/20 A.S.
One wonders what might have happened had the Markham-Thornhill byelection happened a year or two later, when either Wynne backlash or SNC/Lavalin backlash would have coloured the picture Even with the Libs regaining lost polling ground and Ng in cabinet, it feels eerily vulnerable, such is the rightward swing among the Chinese-Canadian electorate--which could lead to every single bit of the 905 belt having CPC representation this calendar decade...
28/06/19 Sam
Not particularly pleased - I read this completely the wrong way earlier and didn't show consistency with my projections. Whilst my interpretation changes, the facts remain the same - the Liberals are weaker here with the Chinese community, and even with Mary Ng becoming a junior minister rather quickly, Alex Yuan is still the stronger candidate. If Scheer were to keep the position, he could be considered for Minister of Seniors and his record is a strong one. Considering nobody else has argued the Liberals will win, I think it's definitely the right time to make this TCTC.
29/05/19 Craig
It is true that John McCallum held this seat even during the 2011 Liberal collapse. However, the Chinese-Canadian population since then has trended heavily towards the Conservatives. Despite a horrible candidate and a bad national campaign, they barely lost any ground in 2015, while getting over 40% of the vote in 2017 in a by-election and easily winning provincially in 2018.
For those reasons, I think the swing completes itself in October and Alex Yuan takes over. He's a formidable candidate and the demographic trend definitely favors the CPC. Unionville next door probably made us learn something.
06/04/19 Legolas
This used to be the worst Conservative seat in suburban Toronto but with Chinese voters being more inclined to vote for the blue team these days, this should be a seat the CPC should pick-up. The provincial candidate cracked 50%+ here and the CPC still managed to get 40% in a by-election when they were polling low and leaderless in 2017.
06/04/19 Sam
I'm starting to think this is no longer the riding it once was for the Liberals, and neighbouring Scarborough-Agincourt, Willowdale, and Richmond Hill agree. The Conservatives gained in the by-election, are better now, and as I said, have a great candidate in Alex Yuan. The Conservative vote also held up last time. Looking at polling further, it seems as if the Liberals are more vulnerable here than had anticipated.
14/03/19 seasaw
Though at the present time this riding may look safe for the Liberals, the reality is that it's not that safe. John McCallum is now gone and the by-election result was a little closer than expected, if the CPC were to win the election, they'll take this riding, if not it'll stay Liberal
08/03/19 Sam
In some ways this can be considered one of the most vulnerable of the safer Liberal ridings; they have a good candidate in Alex Yuan and won it provincially, but it can't be ignored that the Liberals still won with 55% last time and will probably win again, albeit by a smaller margin.

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