Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:53:17

Constituency Profile


Atkins, Bria

Lalande, Rob

Li, Anthony

McCormick, Jesse

Mclay, Dylan

Rood, Lianne


Bev Shipley

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



4920.98 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bev Shipley ** 2830050.20%
Ken Filson 1659229.40%
Rex Isaac 959817.00%
Jim Johnston 18733.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4130.81%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.99% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Monte Mcnaughton * 2790655.34%
Todd Case 1680033.32%
Mike Radan 31436.23%
Anthony Li 16603.29%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 15703.47%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
The Liberal MP here during the Chretien yrs. was known for being more right politically than other Liberals. I think that means the CPC hold this riding tomorrow.
14/10/19 Williams_Theo
No contest win for the Conservatives here. Fun tidbit though: while driving through this riding I was listening to a popular London-area rock radio station (I live in London, btw). Much to my surprise I hear ads for the Liberal candidate in this riding! Not sure what the impact of these ads will be in this riding (perhaps something in the London-adjacent parts), but bless his socks for trying at least.
16/09/19 R.O.
Bev Shipley has retired so perhaps a different race here although likely to stay conservative as its one of the better ridings in this region .
18/08/20 A.S.
Re the Libs in LKM: they did not hold it in the Harris era and only in Mulroney's second term; but yes, this used to be a swing riding back when the federal Grits (to say nothing of their provincial counterparts) still had a strong rural base. The usual too-rural/too-socially-conservative alibis pertain here (remember that MPP Monte McNaughton was a right-of-centre provincial leadership contender in 2015). There's a strong NDP base in the reserves and industrial Wallaceburg and a Franco-Ontarian Liberalness in the far SW that reawakened itself at the ballot box in 2015--but 'Fordism' led to Tory overperformance in Wallaceburg in 2018. With all existing opposition gambits exhausted or neutralized, I don't know what's left to bank on...London exurbia? (And following in the footsteps of the Ford swing, the nature of PPC *might* be such where it's likelier to steal from Wallaceburg populism than from CHP conservatism...let's wait and see)
01/04/19 Craig
It's hard to believe, as recently as 2006, this seat was held by the Liberals federally and as recently as 2011 by them provincially. They also held this through the Harris and Mulroney days too. In just this decade, this has turned hard against them and they have fallen to the point of irrelevance. Trudeau is very unpopular in rural southwestern Ontario as well and SNC-Lavalin magnifies that.
While this is a largely working class riding, it is also quite religious. Since the NDP have never been super-strong here, even without Bev Shipley the new Conservative candidate should win big here (unless the PPC nominate a star candidate and the CPC picks a Red Tory too liberal for the riding). Otherwise, this is very safe for the Conservatives.
16/03/19 Sam
This is one of the best Conservative ridings in Ontario; the interesting race will be for the Conservative nomination. It's the one of the worst parts of the province for the Liberals.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
One of only five ridings in Ontario the Tories got over 50% in 2015 so considering it is largely rural and how unpopular the Liberals are in rural Southwestern Ontario, I suspect they will hold this without too much difficulty.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster