Election Prediction Project

Kitchener South-Hespeler
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:53:14

Constituency Profile


Baetz, Elaine

Correia, Matthew

Keeso, Alan

Rahimi, Wasai

Tabbara, Marwan

Todd, Joseph

Weber, David


Marwan Tabbara

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



104.28 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Marwan Tabbara 2021542.30%
Marian Gagné 1754436.70%
Lorne Bruce 744015.60%
David Weber 17673.70%
Nathan Lajeunesse 7721.60%
Elaine Baetz 910.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 470.12%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (64.94% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (26.73% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Kitchener Centre
   (8.33% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Amy Fee 1651138.86%
Fitzroy Vanderpool 1574137.05%
Surekha Shenoy 633514.91%
David Weber 31987.53%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6381.88%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Going to be close but I think the Liberals hold on here. A seat the CPC have to win if they want to win govt. tomorrow.
16/10/19 Stephen
With the Tories polling at 33% both country-wide and in Ontario, I think that they will take this riding.
My opinion is actually that this riding is more favourable than Cambridge for the Liberals (due to Conestoga College, and the suburbs in the western part of the riding), and that the Tories will take both of them. If Tabbara had a higher profile, things might be different, but I think that this riding will go the way of other suburban ridings, which seems now to be Conservative.
08/10/19 R.O.
This was a new created riding in 2015, made from parts of nearby Kitchener area ridings. Marwan Tabbara pulled off a surprise victory last election as it was predicted to go conservative. The cpc has a new candidate this election as Alan Keeso was nominated some time ago. Still a close race at this point.
17/08/20 A.S.
Frankly, I'd equate this less with Brantford-Brant than with Cambridge right next door--and unlike either, it has neither a significant 'city centre' (Hespeler comes closest) nor significant rural hinterland (other than that which separates Kitchener from Hespeler). And the Grand River forms the main red/blue divide at hand here, with Hespeler and the Pioneer Tower neighbourhood on the 'blue' side, and much of the southward Kitchener sprawl on the 'red' side (and Doon Village straddling the two). The provincial PC 'underperformance' (if that's what it is) is definitely worth noting, and perhaps as an electoral-demographic portent of things to come in K-W--and of course, the 'status quo' dynamic that could come to Harold Albrecht's rescue in Kitchener-Conestoga could *also* work on behalf of Tabbara. Who, unlike Albrecht, won by a more-than-recount margin...and who got a higher share in victory than the PCs' Amy Fee did provincially.
15/05/19 Right Honourable Adult
If the Tories recover to 33% nationally, expect this to go blue. It's prime suburban territory that is more akin to Brantford-Brant than Kitchener Centre or Waterloo.
06/03/19 Sam
This is definitely not a safe or comfortable riding for the Liberals, and it could potentially be an open seat, but it is noticeable that the Conservatives have underperformed in the Kitchener area both in 2015 and in 2018 (PCs) , more noticeably in the Kitchener-Conestoga riding. Either way, it's a swing riding that could easily go to the Conservatives.
02/03/19 seasaw
This is going to be a CPC pickup. Last election, this was a narrow Liberal victory for two reasons, first, it was a change election and second Trudeau was very popular then. Now, with the Liberal leadership in question and stronger polling numbers for the CPC, this one should move to the blue column

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