Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:52:44

Constituency Profile


Boucher-Chicago, Kelvin

Di Pasquale, Michael

Melillo, Eric

Nault, Bob

Ralko, Kirsi

Turtle, Rudy


Bob Nault

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



292684.84 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bob Nault 1091835.50%
Howard Hampton 1042033.90%
Greg Rickford ** 875128.50%
Ember C. McKillop 5011.60%
Kelvin Boucher-Chicago 1620.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1470.60%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Greg Rickford 974848.57%
Glen Archer 749337.33%
Karen Kejick 212310.58%
Ember Mckillop 7073.52%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)


20/10/19 Kimberlee
Kenora is definitely going to the NDP. Talk is all pro-NDP. Liberals also have support but also tons of hatred (this is the riding where Grassy Narrows has had mercury tainted water for decades). Lawn signs in the city are close to 50-50 here between Libs and NDPs. Conservatives are destined to be third. Howard Hampton is LOVED here and Turtle though largely unknown seems very likable and will obviously get tons of support from the northern communities in this riding. I think the NDP will win by even more than the polls are indicating in the paper this last week. I'll be shocked if this swings back to the Liberals as they and the Conservatives have been taking a beating in the news, with constant new scandals, etc.
15/10/19 Mark
I'm surprised to see so many calling this one for the Liberals. This will be a close one, probably too close to call, but I think the NDP will pull it out.
Nault is a decent candidate and has the advantage of being the incumbent but I don't think he can overcome the disadvantages of being a Liberal in this riding. Outside the city there is a lot of anger over Trudeau's failure to clean up the tainted water systems in First Nations communities, and his reaction to questions about it.
While the various Liberal/Trudeau scandals probably won't be enough to cost them a ‘win’ in the three main cities here, it will definitely cost them votes. And outside the cities support runs overwhelmingly for the NDP and PC candidates. Among native populations, forget it, you're looking at over 80% at least voting against the Liberals - and they're angry and will turn out the vote.
On top of this, Howard Hampton is very actively endorsing their candidate - Chief Turtle, who is obviously very popular in First Nations communities - and their popularity should do a lot to offset Nault's ‘incumbent’ advantage.
My head and my gut both say this may be too close to call for the Dippers yet in the polls, but will probably an NDP win come election day. Anti-Liberal voters will turn to the NDP over Conservatives here both strategically and out of historic loyalty.
14/10/19 Joe
I’m surprised there aren’t more NDP predictions here... The Liberal situation among Indigenous voters has worsened considerably since they won in 2015. The NDP are now the main choice among Indigenous voters, which will most definitely decide the election in a riding like Kenora, which has one of the highest Indigenous populations in Canada. Here, the water crisis, the pipeline, as well as the environment and climate change are the main issues, and in the eyes of many voters in this riding, the Liberals have failed to do what they promised. Considering the NDP momentum in this final week, I believe the NDP will be the victor.
13/10/19 Riverdale resident
338 has this as a toss-up as of Oct 13.
Singh was here last week and made the very powerful statement regarding the right of rural/aboriginal people to clean drinking water from Sioux Lookout, which is in this riding.
With an engaged electorate and the Liberals sinking, likely will be enough to give it to the NDP. Certainly not a Liberal lock.
10/10/19 Ridingwatcher
It would appear that Bob Nault will carry this constituency for the Liberals. He has good name recognition. The NDP has not gained traction in the larger population areas and the Conservative nominee refuses to campaign in First Nation communities.
07/10/19 NJam101
Definite Liberal victory. Bob Nault was able to defeat two big-name candidates in 2015. (Former ON NDP leader Howard Hampton and sitting CPC cabinet member Greg Rickford) I'm quite certain that Nault will increase his share of the votes without Hampton on the ballot.
The CPC candidate is quite unknown this time and with the Doug Ford Ontario PCs being very unpopular, I don't see the CPC vote increasing. I do agree that NDP candidate Rudy Turtle will do quite well in many First Nations.
Bob Nault Liberal victory for sure.
06/10/19 Physastr Master
This might actually be more competitive than we might expect given the large aboriginal population. While the Liberal support is generally holding up well across Ontario, they are in freefall among aboriginal populations, at half their 2015 support. Having Rudy Turtle of Grassy Narrows as the NDP candidate will be an enormous asset for them. As is supported strongly by polling, aboriginal populations feel betrayed by Trudeau's lack of action on clean water at reservations, and have the chief of one such reservation make a funding announcement for clean water alongside a party leader is basically perfect to galvanize support for the NDP. If you had Mercury poisoning in your water and only one candidate was promising action, what would you do? In 2015 these reserves were a close NDP-Liberal race (Grassy Narrows actually went Liberal!), but given polling among aboriginal populations, I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP scores over 70-80% on average in these areas. Aboriginal populations are 35% of the population, so it might not be enough, with Kenora itself likely trending away from the NDP due to the absence of Howard Hampton, but Rudy Turtle's strong support in the rest of the riding should keep this competitive. Remember, this was one of the closest LPC-NDP races in the country last time, and 338 has had it as a 3-way toss up for months!
16/09/19 R.O.
Not sure the conservatives can make a run at this one without Greg Rickford , he was a very strong candidate for them in the riding. Another factor is turnout , the riding saw a surge in new voters in 2015 and hit 72% turnout. Not sure I see that trend continuing this election. but something about the riding as its typically had close races and fact its rural bordering Manitoba leaves me uncertain about the outcome.
04/09/19 Predictor
Give this one to Bob Nault. He knows the riding better than the other candidates and most of his constituents see him as a good man.
21/08/20 A.S.
Re the provincial Libs in '18 and "very weak" candidacy: let's keep in mind that there are now effectively *two* provincial ridings encompassed by the present federal riding; and in the new far-north constituency of Kiiwetinoong, the LPO ran a "name" candidate (the mayor of Sioux Lookout) and still only got 15%. (That is, it was a universal rejection.) Rudy Turtle may be fine, but profilewise he's no Howard Hampton (not that that's fatal or anything); and the Con is basically a kid, not that *that's* fatal or anything, particularly if Rickfordian Kenora's well-placed as the eastward-marching front of Prairie Scheerlandia. Remember how all those reserves couldn't block Rickford in the past--and even in 2018, adding Kiiwetinoong to the Kenora total wouldn't have eliminated the PC plurality. But still...a kid candidate. And a Lib incumbent with a parliamentary history spanning three decades. Which means one of the likelier Liberal "raised shares" out there...
02/08/20 VJR
With the news that Chief Rudy Turtle from Grassy Narrows First Nation will be running for the NDP, and the close election in 2015, I see this as a Too Close to Call at least.
22/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Bob Nault will win on his own merits, probably with an increased vote now that he no longer has to fend off the popular Greg Rickford or the even better known Howard Hampton. Under different circumstances this riding could be vulnerable, but in the end, without viable candidates from other parties, I think Nault knows his way around the riding well enough literally and figuratively that he will know where to find the votes.
26/06/19 Right Honourable Adult
I can't honestly call this one right now, but I'm highly doubtful the Liberals will hold on if their branding is about green dreams and woke attitudes. This is one of the soon-vanishing ridings in Canada that is more traditional socialist instead of modern progressive. Given how close the riding is, that gives the CPC an opportunity but only if Team Scheer plays a perfect hand during the campaign. Advantage NDP, but more to come...
29/05/19 Craig
On paper, Bob Nault should be safe. Unlike in 2015, he has relatively weak Conservative and NDP opponents (Howard Hampton not running again, Greg Rickford now an MPP). It's true the provincial Liberals did horrendous here in 2018, but they had a very weak candidate and there were strong PC and NDP candidates.
There are two wild cards, one that could benefit each other party. There is a large indigenous population that could swing to the NDP if they feel the Wilson-Raybould treatment was a betrayal and not enough was done on their file. Also, the issue of gun control could play strongly into Conservative hands, especially if the Liberals propose gun bans to win over urban voters. For now, I'd give the LPC the advantage as they have the best candidate, but there are potential dangers that could swing Kenora either to the CPC or NDP.
16/03/19 seasaw
Bob Nault is not your typical Justin Trudeau Liberal. He was first elected here before Trudeau was even old enough to vote. Regardless of how the Liberals do, Nault'll keep his seat
02/03/19 Sam
Bob Nault, the incumbent Liberal is a great fit for this district and should keep this in play for the Liberals if he runs again, but this riding will still be close, and provincially the Liberals did terribly here. If Bob Nault wins it will be because of him as a candidate, but in other circumstances it's hard to see the Liberals do as well.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
While a tight three way race last time around, you had three star candidates, Howard Hampton for the NDP and Greg Rickford for the Tories (who is now MPP) so with Greg Rickford definitely not running and Howard Hampton not running, I suspect Bob Nault will get a lot of their personal votes while the partisan ones will stick with their party. Unlike Southern Ontario where people mostly vote based on party not candidate, in Northern Ontario candidate matters.

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