Duvall, Scott
	Dyakowski, Peter
	Enos, Jim
	Lee, Trevor
	Plett, Richard
	Uggenti, Bruno
	Urquhart, Dave
Incumbent:
	Scott Duvall

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			104877 103615 40902 40028 33.14 km² 3164.8/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Scott Duvall	18146	35.90%
	Shaun Burt	16933	33.50%
	Al Miles	12991	25.70%
	Raheem Aman	1283	2.50%
	Andrew James Caton	763	1.50%
	Jim Enos	438	0.90%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		14535	32.29%
		21806	48.45%
		7041	15.64%
		1270	2.82%
Other		358	0.80%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Hamilton Mountain    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Monique Taylor *	24406	54.58%
	Esther Pauls	12891	28.83%
	Damin Starr	4134	9.24%
	Dave Urquhart	2300	5.14%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		11343	28.06%
		7099	17.56%
		19649	48.61%
		1750	4.33%
Other		585	1.45%

	14/10/19	J.F. Breton 96.21.24.76
Course entre les Libéraux et le NPD ici. Remontée du NPD au national, ce qui devrait les avantager ici. Les récentes attaques de Trudeau contre Singh sont assez révélatrices. Il a clairement peur que le tapis lui glisse sous les pieds. Je mise sur une victoire du député sortant ici.
	22/09/19	jeff316 69.165.136.142
Against an Aggelonitis or a Bountrogiani Duvall would like be toast. But there are no star candidates in the race - and no, Dyakowski is no household name in these parts - he has his best chance to hold on. It's not in the bag, but it is entirely possible that Duvall and Green buck the NDP collapse and 2/3 of Hamilton-proper stays orange.
	15/09/19	Hammer 142.116.85.240
Esther Pauls, a local councilor, ran a well organized and hard fought campaign for the Conservatives in the provincial election but managed only 28% of the vote. The dissatisfied Liberals went left and voted NDP. The ceiling for a Conservative candidate here then is about 25-30%. This will make it a Liberal-NDP race with the advanatage going to the incumbent.
	13/09/19	Dr Bear 204.187.20.95
I read Laurence's rant about ‘star’ candidates and I have a slight criticism about it. While I think the reasoning is rather logical, I feel you failed to take into account that a candidate's fame is often local. Just because someone is no longer in the national spotlight (say in the Olympics), doesn't mean that they don't have a local profile. People will remember a home-town hero, long after their spotlight has faded. That said, I disagree that a candidate like Dyakowski's won't have an impact. There will be some people who will vote for him because he was a Ticat. However I do not believe he will necessarily win. While name recognition will earn him a point or two, he is still subject to the ebb and flow of the popular vote...which is not that fantastic for the CPC in Ontario at the moment. Yes, the NDP is in worse shape and the Liberals are kinda meh; but Hamilton Mountain has not been fertile ground for Conservatives in some time. Barring some great Lib/NDP split, where Dyakowski comes up the middle (a possible scenario), I don't see them winning. I am currently leaning Liberal pick up, but I'll wait to see if the NDP regain steam during the campaign before I make a decisive call.
	11/08/20	A.S. 99.225.32.21
Having somehow defied the 2015 Dipper disaster (and as a freshman, yet), Duvall now looks strangely forlorn--the last remaining non-Northern, non-Windsor NDP MP in Ontario running for reelection. (Though contrary to RHA's post, Duvall's simply being there, together with the "Horwath effect" bleeding upward, probably neutralizes the local Green effect.) And even if Ti-Cat populism seems a little gimmicky, I really wouldn't overly dismiss CPC chances on historical grounds; indeed, the Mountain's strain of "Dipper suburbanism" is still the sort that could default Con over Lib, it's just that the climate's never been right to do so. When the three parties are separated by barely over 10% in 2015 (and even less in various elections since, particularly 1988 and 2004), to think in strict binary terms is off the mark--heck, going by Jagmeet-doldrums patterns, Duvall could even finish third...
	16/07/19	Stephen B 192.197.178.2
The Tories haven’t won here in forty years, and it was not for running candidates with insufficient profiles- the long time ward councillor ran here a few cycles ago. The candidate in 2011, Terry Anderson, was a former councillor. Name recognition wasn’t enough to win those elections, or even to achieve a third of the vote. I believe that the NDP will increase its vote share here, but I would hardly say that’s a bold prediction: 2015 was the worst vote share they’ve had in four elections. I think that the Tories may pick up a handful of votes from the Liberals, but that the majority of the voters who decline to vote Liberal a second time around will go back to the NDP camp whence they came.
	15/07/19	Laurence Putnam 96.53.49.70
This is a Liberal-NDP race; it's great to get local name recognition but I don't think a former Tiger Cat is going to get votes just because of that. See my rant on the Milton riding and the Liberal ‘star’ candidate there for further clarification if interested. The Liberals have a real chance to threaten this riding however I think the Tories will pick up a few soft Liberal votes in a rebound year, setting the table for Duvall to be re-elected on his own merits...it won't be easy, but as an eminently winnable NDP seat with historical NDP roots you have to figure the party will do whatever they have to in order to save it. In the end, I think they will but this is probably 60/40 NDP/Liberal.
	28/06/19	Right Honourable Adult 108.162.188.167
I'm going to change my prediction here to Tory pickup now that we're a little closer to the election and we've been able to see how the parties fared the spring session. The one clear winner so far this year is the Green movement which EP is (rightly) giving at least five seats out in BC, while Singh's NDP continues to languish. At this point, it's ridings like 'Mountain that start to fall first by providing the Tories with a perfect split (NDP base in the north, younger urbane voters in the south of the riding past the Linc who will go Lib/Green). This could be one of those victory with 30% cases this year.
	19/05/19	Sam 86.139.26.229
Honestly, I still think the NDP are the favourites here, and if Angus had won, they would be for certain, but you never know. It reminds me of the 2015 General Election in the UK - surely Colchester, Kingston, North East Fife and Brecon will stay Lib Dem - but no. Duvall is a good MP, but both the other two main parties see this as up for grabs, and with the NDP in their current state, I think even in a riding like this which should be good for them, they're not safe at all.
	01/04/19	Right Honourable Adult 108.162.188.167
If this were like any other year, the NDP would be the natural default here. This year though is shaping up like a 2004 redux with two key differences: 1) The NDP don't have a popular leader who out-performs his party brand (the opposite this year) 2) The CPC isn't the spooky unknown, having run the country relatively competently (if not a bit grumpily) Add into the mix the candidates: a popular former Ti-Cat (of all people!) =running for the Conservatives; the Liberals fell short of getting a popular local counselor and the NDP have the incumbency factor. All told, this will be an NDP/Tory horse race where the Conservatives might just edge out with the feel good aspect of allowing at least one recent Ti-Cat the opportunity to win the cup!
	28/02/19	seasaw 99.225.244.232
Any of the three parties could take this one. We have to wait and see what type of impact the former MG's testimony will have on the Liberal brand. For all we know, the Liberals might have a different leader come election day. Both Scheer and Singh have it easier, because people have very low expectations of both, if they exceed people's expectations, they'll get lots of votes
	25/02/19	Kumar Patel 174.112.172.78
It's a toss up between LPC and NDP. Trudeau's been in Hamilton for events quite often. The Liberals have won this riding in the past when the NDP numbers were low.