Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:51:41

Constituency Profile


Desgranges, Jean-Jacques

Donnelly, Darcy Neal

Drouin, Francis

Fey, Daniel John

Gagnier, Marc-Antoine

Lemieux, Pierre

Lépine, Marthe

Malakos, Konstantine


Francis Drouin

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2909.20 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Francis Drouin 3418953.30%
Pierre Lemieux ** 2336736.40%
Normand Laurin 50877.90%
Genevieve Malouin-Diraddo 11531.80%
Jean-Serge Brisson 3770.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1870.34%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Amanda Simard 1995240.98%
Pierre Leroux 1540931.65%
Bonnie Jean-Louis 1061021.79%
Daniel Bruce Reid 14272.93%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 9182.03%

19/10/19 Tony Ducey
Interesting to see that this riding went Liberal during the 1984 Mulroney PC landslide but in 2006 it went CPC. The CPC candidate is back to try to win back the seat he lost in 2015. I think he had a realistic shot of winning the seat back but this is the provincial seat were a PC MPP stepped away from the Ford government. I think Ford's performance is Ontario will hurt Scheer and prevent him from winning this riding and others in the province.
12/10/19 Michael David
This is still way TCTC. Tories campaigning like crazy here, and NDP starting to surge at just the right time might cut into Liberal vote. If the Libs win, it will be by a greatly reduced margin from last time. I think a CPC pickup is still possible.
27/09/19 R.O.
Cpc running a former mp here as Pierre Lemieux has returned as the candidate. Longtime liberal riding with the exception of the time he was mp from 2006-15. Federal party typically does well in rural eastern Ontario so they could perhaps have a chance here. but riding has generated little attention so far so a tough race to get a feel for.
14/08/20 A.S.
Actually, the "further away from Ottawa" rule doesn't work when it comes to Lib vs Con support in GPR--the traditional divide's been more along Franco-Catholic vs Anglo-Protestant lines; in fact, close-in exurbs like Russell have had a predominantly Tory history, while the more remote realm of industrial Hawkesbury remains overwhelmingly Liberal to the point where in good years, the NDP can be the more natural "alternate party". And for all the post-Y2K battering the Liberal brand has endured in rural Ontario (including here), they haven't relinquished their strong hereditary advantage in GPR--they even held their 30% floor in defeat provincially in 2018 (and of course, the victorious Tory subsequently bolted the party on language-policy grounds). And frankly, when it comes to Lemieux, the SoCon thrust of his leadership bid is a double-edged sword; and *that*, probably, is where creeping "Ottawafication" doesn't work to CPC advantage--GPR isn't exactly MKL, or Niagara West, or wherever...
23/05/19 Marco Ricci
I think this seat is leaning Liberal.
Francis Drouin won by 17 points here in 2015, plus Premier Ford has alienated some Francophones after MPP Amanda Simard quit the PC caucus last year.
Yes, former CPC MP Pierre Lemieux can be competitive again, but he didn't actually do that well in the CPC leadership -- he finished 7th.
13/05/19 Neal
Once a Liberal stronghold, this is no longer the case. Especially since the Tory candidate, Pierre Lemieux is well known, having served from 2006-2015 as MP, and then keeping his profile high and showing well in the Tory leadership race.
Combine this, with the fact that the Liberals' credibility is in a shambles, and further hurt by the Carbon tax, this riding is starting to look like a Tory Take-Back.
If there is a green surge, it will split the vote on the left 3 ways, making a Tory win here even more likely.
01/04/19 seasaw
This was once one of the safest Liberal seats in the province. Don Boudria held it for 22 years and before him it was the Ethier brothers for another 22. As things stand right now, it is very premature to call this riding for anyone, especially the Liberals. Right now, the Liberals are on the path of self destruction. They have set themselves on fire and as the fire begins to die down they seem to be adding more fuel to it. We have to wait and see, when the fire is finally put out will the Liberals be like Phoenix and rise from the ashes? If yes, they'll take this, if no, they won't
22/03/19 Mubs
This should be tctc,Drouin did not make any freinds by stepping in and shutting down the justice committee probe into the snc affair. It may hurt him.
16/03/19 Sam
I wouldn't call this for either side. This is a vulnerable riding for the Liberals but the margin was decent last time, and the Ottawa/francophone Ontario region is generally better for them. That being said, this is still a swing riding and Pierre Lemieux has already made this competitive.
16/03/19 Craig
Yes, this trended Conservative from about 2000 to 2012, but that trend has largely stopped in most of eastern Ontario and things have either stabilized or (as you get closer to Ottawa) trended back towards the Liberals. It's true that the cuts to Francophone services may come on the minds of voters as well, especially among federal employees that live closer to Ottawa.
That said, the margin is certainly not insurmountable and Pierre Lemieux is still fairly well liked in social conservative circles. He'll probably do better the farther you get from Ottawa. But he certainly won't be in cabinet either way. Tossup, maybe slight advantage Liberals.
05/03/19 Neal
This riding , like most of Eastern Ontario is trending Conservative, and Pierre Lemieux should be able to retake this ine, especially after raising his profile by a very good run at the Conservative leadership. he has also remained active and highly visible in the riding. If the Liberals appear to be taking the election in a walk (Highly unlikely given Jodygate) the Liberals could hold this, otherwise, look for Pierre Lemieux to be making a return to Parliament... and likely cabinet.
28/02/19 Dr.Bear
Isn't this the seat where DoFo's only francophone MPP bailed from his party? I don't think Franco-Ontarians are too keen with the conservative lot. As well, it took Liberal collapses to get this to flip to Team Blue. Unless we see a major turn in Liberal fortunes, this will stay in the red column.

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