Election Prediction Project

Etobicoke Centre
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:51:16

Constituency Profile


Baker, Yvan

Opitz, Ted

Semple, Cameron

Serdiuk, Nicholas

Vickers-Wong, Heather

Wrzesniewski, Mark


Borys Wrzesnewskyj

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



37.10 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Borys Wrzesnewskyj 3261252.80%
Ted Opitz ** 2307037.30%
Tanya De Mello 48867.90%
Shawn Rizvi 8561.40%
Rob Wolvin 3780.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1460.27%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Etobicoke Centre
   (93.42% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (6.58% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Kinga Surma 2443243%
Yvan Baker * 1970834.68%
Erica Kelly 1031118.15%
Shawn Rizvi 13292.34%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 22104.74%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
This seat has seen some powerful MP's in the past. Michael Wilson and Allan Rock made this their political home. No incumbent this time but former Ontario MPP, Yvan Baker is the Liberal candidate here this time and I have winning here tomorrow.
16/10/19 R.O.
Scheer made some early campaign stops in Etobicoke as the election was just getting started although not sure this riding has emerged as a battleground . despite the fact it has no incumbent as longtime mp Borys Wrzesnewskyj retired although liberal candidate Yvan Baker is a former mpp for the riding so he’s still well known in Etobicoke. Cpc candidate Ted Optiz was also mp for the riding briefly from 2011-2015 as he narrowly won in 2011 when ndp support surged in Toronto. But Its hard to predict how the greens and ndp do in these ridings this year.
18/08/20 MF
Yvan Baker's vote held up pretty well in the provincial election as this riding had a 'Tory vs. Lib Dem' dynamic. He should have no problem winning it federally.
05/08/20 A.S.
Let's remember that another thing which may have boosted Yvan Baker's provincial numbers last year were the controversies surrounding the Tory nomination of Kinga Surma--and the Kinga controversies, murmurs, etc linger to this day. By comparison, Baker was totally sensible-shoes; and for him to pick up and sensible-shoe his way into Borys Gesundheit's footsteps makes perfect organic sense. So who cares if the Tory premier lives here; he and his comely rumoured consort are central to the Cons' problem...
31/05/19 Right Honourable Adult
TCTC at this point -- out of the three Etobicoke ridings this year, this looks like the closest as Lakeshore continues to become an affluent bedroom community of condos and North stays the strongest Liberal riding in the West GTA so long as the Tory candidate does not have a last name rhyming with "floored". Having the former Liberal MPP go up against the former CPC MP will make for an interesting contest that will probably come down to a ground game in an area that has sent everyone from Chris Stockwell to Michael Wilson to Allan Rock to Donna Cansfield to the halls of power. Grab your popcorn!
23/05/19 Marco Ricci
It was reported tonight that former MPP Yvan Baker has now officially been chosen as the new Liberal candidate. Borys W. won by 15 points in 2015, but he benefited from the Trudeau Wave & long-term former incumbency. Former CPC MP Ted Opitz can be competitive here, although so can Yvan Baker. Probably leaning Liberal, but still close at this point.
22/04/19 seasaw
With Borys retiring, this riding looks to be competitive at this stage, however, with 6 months left before the vote, a lot can happen. Let's say too early to call for now.
06/04/19 Legolas
This will be a close one between Opitz and whoever the Liberals nominate. With Borys retiring it will help Opitz a bit, but it will still be competitive.
31/03/19 Sam
The provincial results say a lot - either this riding is trending Liberal or Yvan Baker is a great candidate. Either of those factors could explain a likely Liberal victory here. There's a lot of PC/Liberal crossover vote which should materialise again.
04/03/19 Kumar Patel
Liberal hold. Former MPP Yvan Baker will be running as the Grit candidate. While Baker lost the provincial election, he had a strong showing compared to his colleagues. Lot's of 'Ford nation' Liberal voters in this riding.

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