Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:50:55

Constituency Profile


Armstrong, Pam

Hargreaves, Bob

Helkaa, Donald

Hendel, Ericha

Redecop, Peter

Styve, Richard

Vecchio, Karen


Karen Louise Vecchio

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2484.52 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Karen Louise Vecchio 2802349.20%
Lori Baldwin-Sands 1764231.00%
Fred Sinclair 877115.40%
Bronagh Joyce Morgan 17833.10%
Michael Hopkins 5290.90%
Lou Bernardi 1850.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 7001.43%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jeff Yurek * 2926455.46%
Amanda Stratton 1692332.07%
Carlie Forsythe 38577.31%
Bronagh Morgan 20293.85%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 7551.72%

08/10/19 R.O.
Karen Vecchio held this riding easily for the cpc in 2015 despite being a rookie candidate and a bad year for the cpc. She’s increased her presence in Ottawa since then and should keep this riding.
16/08/20 A.S.
For Vecchio to nearly hit 50% *as a non-incumbent* amidst the CPC-uncongenial circumstances of 2015 tells you all that you need to know. And let's not overestimate past Liberal solidity here; sure, there was Premier Mitch, but Gar Knutson was a sluggish performer over the Chretien years, and Steve Peters provincially was a force unto himself. Then again, the left-leaning London rump's grown quickly in recent years as development's leapfrogged former municipal boundaries...but a rump's a rump.
25/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Outside city limits in Southwestern Ontario a Tory incumbent can reasonably expect to be returned to Ottawa without much difficult.
17/04/19 Sam
The clue here is in the riding's name - London isn't a significant part of the riding, whereas rural and conservative Elgin and Middlesex are. The latter areas will again seal it for the Conservatives.
01/04/19 Craig
Yes, the Liberals held this solidly for many years federally and provincially. That was in a different era though and Trudeau is a huge liability in this mostly working class riding. Don't be fooled by the ‘London’ part, it is the more conservative parts of the city in this riding, along with deeply conservative Elgin and rural Middlesex where they routinely run up the numbers.
Most likely, the results will resemble the 2018 provincial election and the 2011 federal election - dominating wins for the Conservatives. The only thing to watch could be if the PPC can put up a fight; Karen Vecchio is a pretty Red Tory for a riding like this. That said, it would probably take a perfect split on the right for the Liberals or NDP to even have a chance.
Much like in the rural and small town Midwest, the days of progressives doing well in rural southwestern Ontario are pretty much over.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
The Liberals used to be competitive here, but recently have not even be competitive in good elections such as 2014 provincially or 2015 federally so the Tories should hold this without too much difficulty. This is part of the Rust Belt so much like the difficulties the Democrats have had in the Midwest, Liberals are facing similar troubles in small town/rural Southwestern Ontario.

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