Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:50:42

Constituency Profile


Brown, Allison

Emo, Russ

Fisher, Michele

Ransom, Chad

Seeback, Kyle

Wiesen, Stefan


David Allan Tilson

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2174.59 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

David Allan Tilson ** 2797746.30%
Ed Crewson 2364339.10%
Nancy Urekar 44337.30%
Rehya Yazbek 43987.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Sylvia Jones * 2970453.08%
Andrea Mullarkey 1138120.34%
Laura Campbell 701112.53%
Bob Gordanier 697212.46%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5381.19%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
I think the CPC nomination woes here could present an upset for the Liberals. Will be close but I think the Liberal will win here.
10/10/19 JJE
A few comments
I've lived here since 1991 in Bolton and PC/Conservatives have taken it every time except when the Right-vote was split between the Reform and the old PCs. Provincial has always been PC and Federal always Conservative (remember when Brian Mulroney//Kim Campbell went down to 4 seats in 1993? Garth Turner as a Conservative who was Minister of Revenue for that short period).
Things might change a bit but I really doubt it. Some people have commented that it's all about Tilson and I find that completely non-believable -- as someone who's tired of his vote not counting for much I've felt that this district would elect a dead farm animal as long as it was part of the blue C party.
So my prediction (not my wishes) would be Cons: 40% Lib 20% Green 20% NDP 20%.
Maybe a Green wave will take place like Orange Crush in Quebec a few years ago but we'd have to actually poll Dufferin and Caledon only like 2 days before the election
28/09/19 DurhamDave
I think seesaw might be on to something. Mainstreet has some interesting numbers for Dufferin County.
LPC — 46.8%
CPC — 26.3%
NDP — 15%
GPC — 7.3%
PPC — 3.8%
Perhaps this riding should be TCTC?
18/09/19 R.O.
See this riding being more of a conservative riding than a David Tilson riding. The cpc also held another nearby open rural/suburban riding ( York Simcoe ) in a by election . it also be interesting to see how the greens do here but think the riding stays conservative.
27/08/19 seasaw
I'm calling this my upset special, this is more a David Tilson riding than a Conservative riding, and CPC really botched their nomination here, and nominated a former Brampton MP to run here. The Liberal candidate has been busy campaigning here, so it should give her a leg up. Also, the Liberal numbers in Ontario increase by the day, while the CPC numbers decrease by the day, so based on what I see today, I have to call it a Liberal gain. Until things change, I have to stick with my prediction.
18/08/20 A.S.
The Liberals have held this riding before...when they held practically everything else in Ontario, from 1993 to 2004. *Could* still be winnability here, particularly against the grain of CPC nomination problems, though the fact that Bolton swung a lot closer to the provincial PC mean in '18 doesn't bode well. And if anything signals pending Lib/left-friendly demographic change, it isn't Bolton or Orangeville, it's top-of-the-410 overspill neighbourhoods like Valleywood and Southfields. In fact, when it comes to Orangeville and Dufferin County in general, it's possible that the May-boosted Greens could assume second place ahead of the Libs...or even win altogether, if the Cons totally bomb in their nomination process.
07/08/20 seasaw
The CPC haven't even come close to solving their nomination process here. In the meantime, the Liberal candidate has been out campaigning and fundraising. So, as things stand today, the Liberals are in a very good position to snatch this riding. It won't be easy though, because there are still a lot of Conservatives here, and the party also will put a lot of resources here to help keep the riding. Let's call it TCTC at this point.
18/06/19 Sam
Looks like the Conservatives have fixed their nomination troubles here, restarting the process. Whatever the fallout, it's early enough that there's no way this becomes at risk because of it.
16/06/19 seasaw
Wouldn't call this for the CPC for now. Sure, they have held this riding for a very long time and a lot of it had to do with David Tilson. David is gone now, and the CPC have had issues with their nomination,the Liberals have held this riding before and they may do so again. TCTC is the right call right now
08/04/19 Sam
Interestingly, the Conservative candidate and likely MP here is of Asian descent. This is a good region for the Conservatives and I think if there was any chance of them losing it this cycle, they would have won it last time.
25/02/19 Kumar Patel
The CPC will hold on to this riding, but it will be interesting to watch in future elections.
The demographics of this riding is changing, especially in Orangeville and Bolton. It will eventually become a typical 905 swing riding.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Even with David Tilson not running, this is a very reliable Tory riding that they seem to hold even during bad elections so unless they have one of their worst showings ever, I expect they will hold this one.

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