Election Prediction Project

Don Valley North
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:50:37

Constituency Profile


Dong, Han

Fischer, Sarah

Giavedoni, Daniel

Griffin, Bruce

Sobel, Jay


Geng Tan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



24.35 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Geng Tan 2349451.40%
Joe Daniel ** 1727937.80%
Akil Sadikali 38968.50%
Caroline Brown 10182.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1420.36%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Don Valley East
   (52.6% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (47.4% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Vincent Ke 1804644.44%
Shelley Carroll 1255730.92%
Akil Sadikali 847620.87%
Janelle Yanishewski 10392.56%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 1220.36%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
New candidate here for the Liberals but still they should be able to hold this riding.
14/10/19 R.O.
The liberals won this riding in 2015 but Geng Tan decided to leave Ottawa after only 1 term , so it has no incumbent . Sarah Fischer the cpc candidate has been campaigning in the riding for some time. The liberals have nominated Han Dong who is a former mpp from a downtown Toronto riding as there candidate. The ndp and greens weren’t much of a factor here last election but if there vote grows it could alter the race which happened other years.
15/09/19 PY
As per the Liberal website, it's Han Dong (formerly the MPP for Spadina-Fort York) who ultimately won the nomination over Bang-Gu Jiang, a lawyer who was the party's standard-bearer in Markham-Unionville last election.
Although he is a parachute candidate, I don't see how Dong won't be able to overcome that as Sarah Fischer is only a few years removed from her days as a CPC staffer. That said, she'll likely have some assistance from her former employer. Then again, I get the feeling Han Dong may get some from his also (though the resources he could potentially access are more likely to be human in nature, not financial, as the OLP is in the midst of its own rebuilding process).
Unfortunately, by nominating Fischer, the Conservatives hedged when they should have pounced at the opportunity to re-take DVN with a higher-calibre candidate after those allegations against Geng Tan came to light.
I don't like Fischer's odds at all. My money's on Han Dong here.
15/09/19 Marco Ricci
Yes, this riding is probably leaning Liberal for now, although too soon to know whether it's safe for the Libs until we see how the next month of the campaign goes. Han Dong won the Liberal nomination a few days ago, although since he's running in the Don Valley suburbs instead of in his former provincial riding of Trinity downtown, it's hard to know whether his prior term as an MPP gives him an advantage.
12/09/19 Kumar Patel
The Liberals won this riding by nearly 14 points in 2015.
This riding does not have the same demographic make up as Markham-Unionville.
Unless Scheer-mania sweeps Toronto this will be a Liberal hold.
11/09/19 OgtheDim
Agree with the current TCTC
This riding will be mostly affected by the national race. The only potential here is whether the Lib candidate fits the ethnic makeup of the riding and thus reduces the enthusiasm of the little PCPO machine Ten built to cement his win over Carrol provincially - that was somewhat impressive.
You can lose this riding with a bad ground game.
05/08/20 A.S.
Boy, the federal Liberal camp's been plagued by melodrama in DVN: the whole Geng Tan household circumstance, the Han Dong parachute, David Caplan's passing...but that's not the only reason why I'd question why DVN's currently deemed 'Liberal' and Willowdale 'Too Close'; we're talking about a riding where the Chinese-Canadian bleed from Markham and Agincourt is especially evident, and it's a bleed that shows increasing rightward inclinations. (It's why Hillcrest Village is now stronger for the Cons than Bayview Village.) And that the provincial Libs overperformed here in '18 has more to do with star candidate Shelley Carroll than with the 'natural base'. OTOH countering this is a dynamic similar to Willowdale: that is, transit-spurred condos and intensification along Sheppard having a way of spurring a centre/left-friendly cosmopolitanism. And of course, it doesn't help the CPC when their candidate's taken to task for trollish anti-Justin antics.
05/07/19 Marco Ricci
Former Ontario Liberal MPP Han Dong has said he is running for the Liberal nomination here. The wife of departing Liberal MP Geng Tan is also considering a run.
17/06/19 seasaw
This one's going to be hard to predict until closer to election day. The Liberal MP just quit, he had already been niminated, but for some reason he decided he no longer wanted to be the MP. The Tories already have their candidate who's already started campaigning. The Liberals will have to find another candidate and are already behind the eighth ball. There's still 4 months left and anything can happen.
31/03/19 Sam
With the Tories polling well, and this riding having more scope for the Conservatives to strongly appeal than some of the ridings in the centre of Toronto, I'd say too early to call is a better projection for the moment and I wouldn't rule out a win for the Liberals or the Conservatives.
04/03/19 seasaw
While I don't disagree with anything that Dr Bear posted, it's a bit premature to call this one for the Liberals, this scandal, may turn out to be the biggest in Canadian history, and when we see impossible members of the government trying to distance themselves from their leader, it means there's a problem, a big problem.
28/02/19 Dr.Bear
A close win for the CPC in 2011 (when the Liberals collapsed) and a 13+ point win for the Liberals in 2015; unless the Liberals start imploding, then this should stay with Team Red.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster