Balagtas, John
	Coulbeck, Paul
	Epp, Dave
	Omstead, Katie
	Vercouteren, Mark
	Walsh, Tony
Incumbent:
	Dave Van Kesteren

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			109619 111866 48494 44647 2046.28 km² 53.6/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Dave Van Kesteren **	21677	41.70%
	Katie Omstead	19351	37.20%
	Tony Walsh	9549	18.40%
	Mark Vercouteren	1394	2.70%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		24672	53.20%
		12595	27.16%
		7554	16.29%
		1551	3.34%
Other		4	0.01%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Chatham-Kent-Essex    (94.37% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Essex    (4.83% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex    (0.81% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Rick Nicholls *	24078	51.92%
	Jordan Mcgrail	16558	35.71%
	Margaret Schleier Stahl	3736	8.06%
	Mark Vercouteren	1643	3.54%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		9561	23.80%
		14851	36.97%
		13156	32.74%
		2090	5.20%
Other		518	1.29%

	21/10/19	Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188
This has been a CPC riding since 2006. I think the Liberals will make things interesting here tomorrow but the CPC should still hold the riding.
	15/10/19	Mark 99.239.105.89
This one was probably over as soon as the last election finished. Van Kesteren was very well liked and it's a surprise to see him not run for another term in what would have been a guaranteed cakewalk for him. Truth is though, the Conservatives could run a pizza with a blue hat and still soundly defeat the Liberals in this riding. Even without all the Liberal/Trudeau scandals and missteps this is a very blue riding and will stay so. I'll be watching closely to see if the NDP can take a bite out of the Liberals though :)
	27/09/19	R.O. 24.146.17.200
A mainstreet poll has the conservatives leading in this riding , left open by the retirement of longtime cpc mp Dave Van Kesten . Tories in front in Chatham riding: Mainstreet poll By Marco Vigliotti. Published on Sep 26, 2019 6:15am https://ipolitics.ca/2019/09/26/liberals-leading-in-waterloo-tories-in-front-in-chatham-riding-mainstreet-poll/
	16/08/20	A.S. 99.225.32.21
Stayed with them in their times of trouble? Prior to Y2K, this was primarily a *Liberal* riding, save landslide situations a la Mulroney '84. Of course, that's when everything was different in heartland far-SW Ontario, and the local Liberal machine's been ill-starred over the past generation or so--but still, that it's an open seat w/2015's Grit candidate re-offering (and *perhaps* more of a united-left situation if the Jagmeet NDP is truly more of a superfluous factor) must count for something. Then again, that the provincial riding defied NDP predictions on behalf of an easy PC majority must *also* count for something.
	22/04/19	Sam 109.146.124.151
Even where it looks as if the Conservatives are vulnerable, this is a Conservative riding and has stayed with them in their times of trouble. Even with David van Kesteren gone, this is a fertile region for them and the Liberals should fall behind. A safer Conservative hold this time.
	16/03/19	Craig 24.213.108.184
This is one of the most religious/evangelical ridings in Ontario, as well as a very working class one. With the Liberals' record the last 4 years and the big turn right among working class voters, the results from 2015 will almost certainly not be replicated and 2011 looks to be a better barometer (flipping the NDP and LPC results). Unless Omstead runs away completely from the Liberal record including SNC-Lavalin and urban social issues, this should be a safe Conservative seat this time around (probably beating the 2018 provincial record), even with a new candidate for the blue team. The Trudeau record does not fit well here at all. The NDP has had good results recently (although they hit a brick wall in 2018) but they are polling too low to matter too much now.
	28/02/19	Dr.Bear 204.187.20.70
It has been said time and again that incumbents garner about 5 points for their party and not much more. The results from 2015 for Chatham-Kent-Leamington is well within that margin. With CPC incumbent Dave Van Kesteren not running and Liberal candidate Katie Omstead re-offering, shouldn't this be listed as TCTC. I do agree that the CPC have the edge given that it is rural SW Ontario and the Liberals have a record to contend with (and a current major scandal). However, Ms Omstead would have connections and a team from 2015. Not to mention that this riding is a bit more urban than some neighboring vacated seats. I think TCTC is a more accurate prediction at this point, at least until we see how this race starts to unfold in the months ahead.
	25/02/19	Brian J 72.28.80.116
With Liberal support weaker than the last election, and the Conservatives putting forward a strong candidate in David Epp, this should be a hold for the Conservatives