Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:50:21

Constituency Profile


Attwal, Sunny

Braniff, Michele

Couto, Manuel

Hamilton, Scott

Haskell, David

May, Bryan

McMorrow, George


Bryan May

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



346.97 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bryan May 2302443.20%
Gary Goodyear ** 2061338.60%
Bobbi Stewart 739713.90%
Michele Braniff 17233.20%
Lee Sperduti 4740.90%
Manuel Couto 1080.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1340.30%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (98.46% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (1.54% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Belinda Karahalios 1779336.97%
Marjorie Knight 1563932.49%
Kathryn Mcgarry * 1119123.25%
Michele Braniff 30186.27%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5121.30%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
I'm going with a CPC pickup here in 2019. Seems like this was a surprise loss for them in 2015. New CPC candidate here but he is well known and he'll win the seat back.
18/10/19 M K
Surprised no one feels comfortable making a call here. Despite Liberal support being down overall from 2015 federally, most of Ontario is pretty unhappy with Doug Ford's PCs. That's spilled over into bad polling for Scheer's Conservatives in Ontario.
I don't think it'll be a huge margin of victory, but I'm calling a hold for Bryan May and the Liberals.
13/10/19 R.O.
This was a surprise liberal pick up in 2015 as Gary Goodyear had been the mp since 2004 and won the riding by large margins as a conservative. There was also a surprise liberal win here provincially in 2014 than it returned to the pc’s in 2018. The cpc also has a new candidate this year, Sunny Attwal won the nomination earlier this year. Scheer has campaigned in the riding so far but unsure if any other leaders have.
28/08/19 Sam
Re A.S - most of those projections were made when this should've been an obvious gain for the CPC. I'm with Seasaw's 'things can change' because they have done. This is a closer fight now, and I wouldn't be surprised if May won, for reasons other than being told he might.
17/08/20 A.S.
Once again, the Ford (+ Obama-Trump) phenomenon seems to have led too many EPPers to over-equate blue-collar with Con support--and actually, nomination controversy or no, what's so surprising about 2018's close provincial result? Losing to the Liberals in 2014 was more surprising, and the SW Ontario Ford Tory steamroller was really more of a non-metropolitan phenomenon, and it just so happens that Cambridge also has a reasonably strong *NDP* tradition which, bolstered by the Andrea wave, was all but predestined to press the PCs close. (And even the Lib incumbent saved some dignity in her 3rd-place defeat, and went on to be Mayor that fall.) And whether as a leapfrog GTA bedroom community or just as an increasingly integrated part of the Waterloo Region conurbation, Cambridge is just getting more metropolitan, more cosmopolitan, and less 'obviously' low-hanging for CPC. And even its right-leaning patterns in the past were more the byproduct of historically weak Liberal infrastructure locally--something that no longer monolithically pertains quite like it used to (thus 2014's provincial steal). So if another Con bites the dust at the hands of Bryan May, don't say I didn't warn you...
16/06/19 Craig
Too close to call. Demographics have been changing significantly this decade in Cambridge, going from a more working class riding to a more mixed/somewhat white-collar riding with GTA commuters and technology employees who would be naturally Liberal. That has only intensified since 2015. The provincial results did involve controversy, but how much of the PC struggles were truly among them?
For those reason, I'd say this is a tossup. The Conservatives should easily win the North Dumfries part of the riding, but urban Cambridge may stay with the Liberals. It's definitely going to be a top Conservative target though, but is the change too much for them or is there enough of the blue-collar population left?
21/05/19 Qui sait
Seasaw has it: the Tories won provincially here in spite of themselves. They'll take this federally. Goodyear narrowly defeated the Liberal incumbent in 2004 even though Ontario as a whole went solidly Liberal. Something similar will happen here this time even if the Liberals form government again.
The NDP hasn’t nominated a total dud, so I expect their vote share will go up at least a bit here. That can only help the Tories.
18/05/19 seasaw
@Stevo, The only thing surprising about 2018 provincial election in this riding was that the Tories won. With their controversial nomination, the infighting and not a proper campaign team, they managed to pull it off. None of the shenanigans, exits in this election and that's why this seat will revert back to the CPC.
30/04/19 Stevo
The surprisingly close 2018 provincial results demonstrate how much Cambridge has changed over the past decade. Even in an election during which the provincial PCs steamrolled over southwestern Ontario they only managed a 4-point victory here. Despite gentrification, Cambridge remains one of the more working-class/blue-collar cities in the province and it is hard to see the Liberals hanging on here if they fail to win a majority or strong minority nationally. TCTC for now.
13/04/19 OttawaGuy94
This seat is definitely going back to the Conservatives unless they start crashing. Attwal is a likeable and locally popular business owner who is involved in a lot of charitable causes in the area too.
12/04/19 Sam
It's hard to believe that Bryan May won here by as much as he did, and I don't think he can hold it against a candidate like Sandeep Attwal, who was recently selected here. If anything, whereas Kitchener-Conestoga and South haven't looked great for the Conservatives (although I think they will win both,) Cambridge has always been better except in 2015 - they defied the odds to win here and next door in Brantford in 2018. With a more industrial and exurban feel here, this territory is very fertile for the Conservatives. TCTC may be the call for now, but I suspect it will change.
03/04/19 Right Honourable Adult
With the Liberals now scorching their incumbent advantage, look for this to go back to the blue column in the fall. While more urban professional than the Gary Goodyear era, Cambridge is still a mix of industry and Protestant culture which will bring enough voters back to the Conservatives as long as they run a half-decent campaign.
04/03/19 Kumar Patel
TCTC between the LPC and CPC. Cambridge is not the blue collar town it once was. It has changed over the last 10-15 years with young professionals living in Cambridge while commuting to Waterloo or Mississauga for work.
03/03/19 seasaw
The Liberals won a close race the last election and that was at a time when Justin Trudeau was at his peak. Now, with a government deep in scandal and a leadership on shaky grounds, this should revert back

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