Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:50:17

Constituency Profile


Dupuis, Lenaee

Gould, Karina

Michael, Jane

Smetana, Peter

Williams, Gareth


Karina Gould

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



75.80 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Karina Gould 3222946.00%
Mike Wallace ** 2978042.50%
David Laird 63819.10%
Vince Fiorito 17102.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1400.23%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.21% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.79% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jane Mckenna 2550440.45%
Andrew Drummond 1805328.63%
Eleanor Mcmahon * 1551524.61%
Vince Fiorito 28284.48%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6111.12%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
A surprise win for the Liberals in 2015, I think this time Gould's cabinet presence lead to a win for her in this seat.
18/10/19 Marco Ricci
‘Liberal incumbents Mark Holland and Karina Gould look poised to reclaim their seats in Ajax and Burlington Ont., respectively, new polls from Mainstreet Research for iPolitics suggests.’
18/10/19 Manny Toba
Mainstreet poll out today says this is a likely Liberal hold.
18/10/19 R.O.
A new mainstreet poll shows a lead for liberal mp Karina Gould , however I still think this riding will be close as its generally been a riding which has seen close races
Quito Maggi? @quito_maggi · 17h17 hours ago ,Tomorrow we bring you a few new riding polls, and a few updates, We start with the 905 riding of Burlington where Liberal incumbent @karinagould leads comfortably over challengers
16/10/19 Chris N
I'm leaning Conservative in Burlington. I think a national increase in Green support this cycle in a riding that traditionally has the highest Green vote for Halton, and some growth in NDP support in the last week of the campaign, could eat away at soft Liberal support.
08/10/19 R.O.
Most 905 ridings have seen rapid growth, Burlington being no exception. This riding has always been a liberal / conservative race. The ndp have always had a presence here as its rate beside Hamilton. The cpc has a new candidate here as former mp Mike Wallace didn’t run again. Elizabeth Jane Michaels is there candidate this year. Not sure if any party leaders have campaigned in the riding yet which is a surprise.
06/10/19 Dave
It’s true there are more Karina Gould signs, but this is not a safe indicator. This is going to be a nail-biter. I will vote Liberal even though I was very disappointed that electoral reform was unceremoniously abandoned. Conservative talking points are silly because, of course we can’t trust Trudeau BUT Scheer will be so much worse and must be stopped at any cost. For me, the cost is supporting a guy who let me down and not supporting a lady who represents my heart. The need to stop Scheer is to great. He must be stopped at any price.
03/10/19 MBM
While I don't live in Burlington anymore, I grew up there and still have family there, so I keep tuned in to what's going on. Burlington was always safe Tory blue federally and provincially when I was young, but the 2014 Liberal provincial win and 2015 federal win, plus last year's mayoral win by Marianne Meed-Ward (former provincial Liberal candidate)tells me that this isn't the same Burlington as it was 30 odd years ago. As of today, 338Canada has this as a toss-up with the Tories leading by 0.7% over the Liberals (i.e. a statistical dead heat) and a 53% chance to win the riding. Keep this as TCTC for now and mark Burlington as a riding to watch on election night. If Scheer starts gaining momentum in the 905, this will be one of the first seats to return to the Tory fold, but I wouldn't make that bet just yet.
04/10/19 Anonymous Burlingtonian
This one will not be close.
1. Karina is dominating the sign wars in a riding where the Cons are usually ahead even when they lose.
2. Karina is universally beloved. Very few who voted for her last time regret it (despite what they think of Trudeau) and she has picked up more converts.
3. Jane Michael has made the unbelievable decision to avoid every public event. She has little profile and is now only getting a reputation as a coward.
Scheer doesn't have any coattails around here so I have no idea how the cons think they can pick this up with such a pathetic campaign.
I expect:
Gould 48%
Michael 32%
Dupuis 12%
Williams 7%
25/09/19 Kyle H
TCTC is definitively the right call here. The riding should be hot and competitive, and it definitely is... but its also a slog. People are turned off from the major parties across the country right now, and even in an exciting race like Burlington there's a sense of malaise, like none of two options you'll get are preferable. Maybe that helps Gould, maybe enough turned off Liberals stay home and send Michael to Ottawa; if anyone tells you they know for sure, don't believe them.
22/09/19 jeff316
Burlington isn't as upper crust as Oakville - hence the NDP hitting 30% in the last provincial election - and for that reason the Conservatives need one of two conditions to win: 1) The Conservatives eat up a lot of the previous Liberal vote nationally, or 2) The NDP nibbles enough of the previous Liberal vote locally. Neither one of these is occurring, so Gould will hold on.
10/08/20 A.S.
Actually, Karina Gould's cabinet position has a way of highlighting how Burlington *isn't* necessarily as "not natural Liberal territory"--at least in terms of the present day--as it appears. With the SNC-Lavalin effect being pushed back by Ford backlash, it's worth remembering that in each recent election the Libs have won federally, they've won Burlington as well; also, the 2014 provincial pickup was no out-of-the-blue accident (it was already a PC-Lib marginal in the 3 elections preceding), and for the PCs to reclaim it in 2018 with only 40%, less than with what Mike Wallace lost with in 2015, indicates how Burlington's no longer the inevitable rock-blue stronghold it was once assumed to be. Remember how what's assumed to be well-heeled Lakeshore-belt hereditary Toryism has taken a "promiscuous moderate" turn ever since the Mulroney backlash and advent of "Paul Martin Liberalism"; and if *any* historically/potentially Conservative voters are going to feed the anti-Ford-populist backlash, it's said promiscuous moderates. It's only a matter of how many there are in Burlington, and how galvanized they are--and ironically, the relative old-stock WASPiness of Burlington might be more amenable to sticking with the Libs than similarly-margined boomburbs and ethnoburbs elsewhere in the GTA (i.e places where the Ford Tories won absolute majorities, or close to it, rather than 40% as here)
06/04/19 Kyle H
To 'RightHonourableAdult' - did you mean to place your submission to a different riding than Burlington? Because redistribution didn't touch any part of this riding other than a tiny sliver gained in the northeast corner from Halton - certainly the western half, aka Aldershot, remains within the riding.
As to the call... TCTC seems more than fair. It's got Conservative lean, but so does the rest of the GTA, and Burlington likes to swing with the trends a bit more. If the Liberals are really on a downswing and about to lose gov't, Burlington will be among the first to fall. But if they pull it off, like 2004 and 2014 provincially, they'll probably squeak another win out.
01/04/19 Right Honourable Adult
The only question here this year is how quickly the networks call this riding for the Tories. As others have noted, this is not Liberal-friendly territory, especially after the western part of the riding got carved off after the last redistribution. EPP always leans Liberal as Milton Chan is still a bit true to his roots, but TCTC at this point is a bit silly when there are ridings elsewhere in the country much closer but already called on here.
16/03/19 Sam
Karina Gould is competing with Amarjeet Sohi to be the most vulnerable Cabinet Minister in the country here. At the moment it looks like the Conservatives will win; this is not natural Liberal territory and it will only take a small swing against them to change sides.
15/03/19 seasaw
Looking at today's poll numbers, which indicate a CPC victory, this riding will be a Tory pickup. We, don't however, know who will be ahead in October, if the Liberals were to be in a winning position, this riding will go their way. This has been a bellwether riding since '93, and it is true that Tory wins are often big, while Liberal wins are often close, but they're still wins
04/03/19 Random Voter
Burlington is still more blue than red. Mike Wallace won in 2011 by 31% verses Karina Gould who won by only 3.5%; both during landslide majority Government election victories. With a slim margin between them last time, I'm guessing that Conservative candidate Jane Michael has an early lead here.

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