Election Prediction Project

Brampton West
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:49:51

Constituency Profile


Davidson, Jane

Hundal, Harinderpal

Kaur, Navjit

Khera, Kamal

Malik, Anjum

Sampson, Roger

Tannahill, Paul

Thapliyal, Murarilal


Kamal Khera

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



57.92 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kamal Khera 2425655.90%
Ninder Thind 1306830.10%
Adaoma Patterson 540012.40%
Karthika Gobinath 6741.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2010.71%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Brampton West
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Amarjot Sandhu 1495139.39%
Jagroop Singh 1446138.09%
Vic Dhillon * 701318.47%
Julie Guillemet-Ackerman 9992.63%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 9303.69%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Kamal Khera will make it 4 out of 5 Liberal seats in Brampton IMO.
22/09/19 Riverdale resident
Wow - over 500 people at the NDP candidate's Brampton West office launch this weekend.
If Trudeau's blackface antics and inability to understand the impact of what he has done are going to hurt the Liberals anywhere, it will be in Brampton. Will be very interesting to see what happens here. TCTC.
17/09/19 Dr. Bear
At this time, the Liberals are regaining ground in Ontario. They are several points behind where they were in 2015, but neither the NDP, nor the CPC seem to be benefiting from this. With that in mind, I can not see this seat going anything but Liberal.
06/08/20 A.S.
Interesting how in the aftermath of the most recent federal and provincial elections, Brampton's parliamentary representation is now 100% non-white and 90% S Asian. Khera's sitting on the strongest federal Grit mandate; but that's because her riding was overwhelmingly newburban and rather raw, and devoid of either an incumbent or token Jagmeet spillover, so "Justinmania Liberal" became the default-mode option for a whole slew of new voters. And because newburban Brampton's newburban Brampton, I agree that the NDP *could* be worth monitoring here, even if it's at the opposite end of ex-Jagmeet country.
16/06/19 Craig
I'm not sure if I would call Brampton West a safe Liberal seat. The population here has been growing rapidly with the primary demographic being South Asians. The provincial results largely mirrored the other seats in Brampton, with the NDP gaining (the Jagmeet Singh effect). It's hard to say where the new people will go.
That said, it would take a lot for the seat to swing. But it's not unreasonable. The Conservative ceiling is likely in the high 30s, but if the NDP vote can grow, it might be enough to win here. I'd give a slight advantage to the Liberals right now, but it could turn into a 3-way race in a hurry. Too early to call.
06/03/19 Sam
This was one of the safer Brampton ridings and probably the most likely to stay Liberal. Kamal Khera is actually a good fit here and demonstrated this by winning a large increase in her vote compared to other Liberals in the area. Although the Conservatives aren't out of the running this should be a Liberal hold.

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