Election Prediction Project

Brampton East
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:49:39

Constituency Profile


Burgess-Ogilvie, Teresa

Dua, Partap

Othi, Manpreet

Sidhu, Maninder

Singh, Ramona

Singh, Saranjit

Walia, Gaurav


Raj Grewal

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



84.90 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Raj Grewal 2365252.30%
Naval Bajaj 1064223.50%
Harbaljit Singh Kahlon 1040023.00%
Kyle Lacroix 5121.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1480.52%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (89.2% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (10.8% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Gurratan Singh 1806246.92%
Sudeep Verma 1289633.5%
Parminder Singh 639816.62%
Raquel Fronte 5231.36%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 100.03%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
NDP held this riding as far back as 2011-2015 so they have a history here. I think the Liberals hold on here though in 2019.
18/10/19 Nick M.
Singh Surge is real. Toronto Star has now admitted to its existence. Brampton sweep coming for NDP?
16/10/19 Physastr Master
I agree with Brampton West being called for the liberals, even with the most optimistic visions for a Singh surge in Brampton it seemed like a bit of a stretch even with local excitement. This is different, however, as Singh himself held the precursor to this riding for a while provincially, during some rather liberal-dominant elections. While I continue to be annoyed by NDP supporters jumping to conclusions about very strange NDP pickups based on provincial results, when the guy that caused excitement provincially is the same guy running for prime minister, there's a different dynamic.
I find it weird that there has been no riding poll here, honestly it's a very interesting riding in which no one seems to know what is going on. Is anyone aware of recent demographics-specific polls? To no one's surprise, this is an overwhelmingly South Asian riding, and that will be the dynamic that matters here. This is a place that has voted NDP recently, and now has a chance to elect their most popular former caucus member as prime minister. I don't see how that possibly won't be compelling. I agree that without information Singh's coattails in the Sikh community, there's no real way to verify that this is true, but it seems likely to me. If any NDP pickups will break the 338 projection model anywhere, it will be here and the other major Sikh-majority riding, Surrey-Newton.
11/10/19 Mizisuga
Definitely the most interesting Brampton riding. Without Raj Grewal, and with Singh's NDP having done relatively well in the commission debate, this could certainly be a close race. TCTC for now.
07/10/19 R.O.
I never understood why Jagmeet Singh did not run here instead , it would of at least given the ndp a presence in the vote rich Toronto area. they already have mp’s in Vancouver . its hard to determine how much of a boost he gives the local ndp candidate from being party leader and once being mpp for the same area. everyone had heard of Raj Grewal but none of the candidates running to replace him are that high profile.
22/09/19 The Jackal
Will seat will go back Liberal red. It will be interesting to see if CPC or NDP finishes second here
14/09/19 MF
Given current polling numbers, I think ‘Jagmeet and Gurratan's seat’ will stay Liberal. However it will be interesting to see if the NDP receives a higher vote share in Brampton East than in second-tier Toronto seats like Beaches-East York, University-Rosedale and York South-Weston.
06/08/20 A.S.
Simply on symbolic-import grounds of its actually having been Jagmeet Singh's former provincial redoubt, to claim that this'll neither be a priority nor a top target for the NDP seems like pushing things...at this point. Or at least, I'd allow a bit more grace time before the party truly abandons hope on behalf of saving the furniture (much as in 2015); and of course, when it comes to the final tally, it's worth monitoring what kind of difference it makes locally when Jagmeet is the local MPP vs when he's the federal leader from across the country--a sort of micro vs macro barometer.
04/08/20 Sam
So it turns out Shawn Emran was pretending to be the Liberal candidate, and they've actually chosen Maninder Sidhu. The Liberals can play it safe here now. It's important to note that the NDP support here isn't correlated with Jagmeet Singh, it depends on Jagmeet Singh. In polarised politics, even his brother performed significantly worse (he had some controversy, but Jagmeet worked hard to get him elected and their relationship was well documented.) Without Jagmeet Singh, a nationalised, safe Liberal campaign should secure them the seat - the challenge for the other parties is substantial and I doubt this riding is a priority or a top target for any of them.
16/06/19 Craig
Very difficult riding to call and this may be a 3-way race in the making. If Jagmeet Singh was running here, I'd give the NDP a strong advantage as he is very popular, while the provincial results showed that he had coattails in Brampton. His party is doing horrible in the national and Ontario polls though.
The Liberals won't have incumbency either, while they will have the national campaign weighing down on them even if they are natural favourites here. The Conservatives have been weakening here in recent elections, a trend seen across Canada with South Asian populations. However, they aren't out of it if they can get significant vote-splitting. Too close to call in a likely 3-way race.
06/06/19 seasaw
This is one that we have to wait till closer to election to predict. Mr Singh did represent a part of this riding provincially and is still quite popular. Mr Trudeau isn't as popular as he was in 2015, and is even disliked by some, he does have enough strength to pull this riding. Mr Scheer may not be personally popular, but some of his policies does resonate with people here and he has a good candidate. So, while the Liberals are in the drivers seat, all three parties have a shot, the one with the best campaign will win here
31/05/19 Sam
Aside from all the other problems the Grits have had, the person who appears to be new candidate seems to be a complete nutcase. The NDP have an opening here, although naturally with Singh not running, a victory for them is less certain. The Conservatives came notionally third in 2011, so it would take a lot for them to take this, so it's a battle largely between the Liberals and the NDP, and whilst the Liberals have a slight edge I wouldn't rule anything out.
17/05/19 Laurence Putnam
Were Jagmeet Singh to run here personally, I think he'd have won it, but without his name attached to it I don't see an NDP win in the cards in Brampton. I'm not reading into the provincial success too much...it would be no different than saying ‘well Doug Ford won Etobicoke North, therefore...’
Pity for the NDP because the Liberals certainly did everything they could to screw this riding up with their shady incumbent and virtually hand it to Jagmeet, but nobody could have foreseen those events unfolding.
06/04/19 Legolas
With Raj Grewal gone and the strength of the NDP in this area this should be an easy pick-up for Jagmeet's team. I think it's only leaning NDP for now, as I want to see who the Liberals and NDP nominate.
27/02/19 Kumar Patel
This will be interesting to watch. The incumbent MP was removed from the Liberal caucus. This is also the homebase of the NDP leader. Toss up between the LPC and NDP. The CPC have no chance in this riding unless Scheermania takes over the country with a 200-seat landslide.

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