Election Prediction Project

Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:49:12

Constituency Profile


Alleslev, Leona

Brown, Aaron

Flemming, Timothy

Korovitsyn, Serge

Patil, Priya

Taylor Roy, Leah


Leona Alleslev

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



94.63 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Leona Alleslev 2413247.30%
Costas Menegakis ** 2303945.20%
Brenda Power 29125.70%
Randi Ramdeen 6541.30%
Kyle Bowles 2430.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4721.20%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Oak Ridges-Markham
   (52.73% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Richmond Hill
   (23.95% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (23.32% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Michael Parsa 2521456.03%
Naheed Yaqubian 971821.6%
Katrina Sale 811618.04%
Stephanie Nicole Duncan 11952.66%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 7472.17%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
The floor crossing won't matter here, the CPC will hold this seat.
18/10/19 R.O.
This riding was very close in 2015 when Leona Alleslev first elected as a liberal. a few years later she switched parties and is now the conservative candidate. She seems like a strong candidate in a riding that seems more conservative than liberal. Trudeau has visited the riding so far , not sure if Scheer has although he was in several nearby York region ridings this campaign.
21/09/19 S.J.
The Liberals are polling consistently ahead in Ontario, and Alleslev’s floor-crossing may have affected her personal popularity. The Liberal candidate is a business-oriented kind of Liberal and that kind of politics plays well in these parts. Not to mention, a recent Mainstreet Poll showed a statistical tie here. I think it’s going to be a nail-biter, maybe a narrow Conservative hold, but by no means a sure thing.
08/08/20 A.S.
Second floor-crossing this century for the Stronach estate (which is in the NE of the riding--the first one being, of course, Belinda going the other direction). I'll allow for *some* Ford-backlash benefit of the doubt; though going by the last provincial election, if it happens, it'll be based in the Aurora end--and that's the "stable" part, not the "growing" part...
18/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Liberal turncoat will win big on her new team.
06/04/19 Legolas
While the Liberals would love to take Alleslev down and probably a seat they are looking hard to get a star candidate in (especially with it being one of the few seats with no Liberal incumbent in Greater Toronto) the SNC affair may have taken the air out of the room. The significant Chinese population in this seat have also ditched the Liberals in droves for the provincial PCs last election, and it should helo Alleslev win re-election with her new team.
31/03/19 Sam
I agree with the others, York is slowly becoming a strong area for the Conservatives and Leona Alleslev be re-elected, under the Conservative banner this time. Although it's not the reason why she defected, I suspect she would've lost as a Liberal; Menegakis would have ran here instead of the other Richmond Hill riding.
06/03/19 MF
Leona Alleslev should have no problem with her party switch. York Region has been trending Conservative compared to the rest of the GTA. The PCs got well over 50% here provincially and the Conservatives came in very close during the 2015 red wave.
23/02/19 905
This seat will very likely go Conservative, even if the CPC does not form government. In 2015, Liberal candidate Leona Alleslev won this riding with 47% of the vote, but the Conservative candidate came really close with 45%. Leona Alleslev crossed the floor from Liberal to Conservative in 2018. The Ontario PC Party won this riding with 56% in the June 2018 election

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