Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 08:50:09

Constituency Profile


Brière, Élisabeth

Côté, Steve

Dusseault, Pierre-Luc

Forgues, Claude

Moreno, Edwin

Morin, Mathieu

Richard, Hubert

Sévigny, Dany


Pierre-Luc Dusseault

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



99.48 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Pierre-Luc Dusseault ** 2141037.40%
Thomas ''Tom'' Allen 1707129.80%
Caroline Bouchard 1171720.40%
Marc Dauphin 53919.40%
Sophie Malouin 11432.00%
Benoit Huberdeau 3030.50%
Hubert Richard 2650.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2280.43%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (90.6% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (9.4% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
At 1 time Pc leader Jean Charest called this his political home. It went Bloc in 1998 when Charest stepped down and the NDP won here in 2011. I think the NDP's run as of late will pan out for them here and they'll keep this seat orange.
17/10/19 J.F. Breton
Le Bloc poursuit sa remontée selon le plus récent sondage Léger. Les Libéraux et Bloquistes sont au coude-à-coude au Québec à 31%. À l’extérieur de Montréal, l’influence du Bloc se fait le plus sentir : le parti est largement en avance en Montérégie (39 %), dans Lanaudière/Laurentides (45 %) et dans le Centre-du-Québec (36 %). Il y a de très fortes chances que Sherbrooke bascule du côté du Bloc, alors qu'il y avait une triple égalité suivant les débats.
15/10/19 Physastr Master
I had a feeling this might be the sort of place the NDP might hold up better than most, and that Mainstreet poll seems to verify that: 26 NDP, 26 BQ, 26 LPC - a literal 3-way tie. Any place that is PQ-over-QS dominant will definitely see the NDP obliterated unless the NDP incumbents are very good at pulling their supporters (i.e. REB and Guy Caron). I may not be the most informed on this, being from the opposite coast and all, but I've always interpreted the QS as the party that is more leftist than it is sovereigntist, and the PQ is the party that is more sovereigntist than it is leftist. Sherbrooke was a narrow QS win, so I can see the ‘more leftist than sovereigntist’ votes - i.e. provincial QS, going NDP. That said, it was a *narrow* QS win, so the NDP has little room for error, and it looks like there is more BQ momentum than NDP momentum right now in Quebec. Therefore I'm still betting on the Bloc here, but the fact that QS support appears to be holding for the NDP seems to indicate that strong QS (leftist over sovereigntist) ridings, i.e. Laurier St. Marie, are back in play. Bloc here but TCTC in Laurier-St Marie, as I think it is now 3-way competitive with the Liberal collapse in Quebec.
15/10/19 Riverdale Resident
Too Close to Call!
Sherbrooke Federal Polling:
Elisabeth Briere (LPC): 26.2% (-17.6)
Claude Forgues (BQ): 25.7% (+7.7)
Pierre-Luc Dusseault (NDP): 25.6% (+13.6)
Dany Sevigny (CPC): 11.6% (-1.7)
Mathieu Morin (GPC): 5.4% (-1.7)
Mainstreet Research / Oct 11, 2019 / MOE 3.8% / IVR
(% chg w Sept 3)
15/10/19 J.F. Breton
À une semaine des élections, triple égalité dans Sherbrooke. Le plus récent sondage Mainstreet place les libéraux, bloquistes et néo-démocrates à 26%, les conservateurs étant à 12%. Pour Dusseault du NPD, le défi sera de faire sortir le vote des jeunes qui l'appuient plus fortement. Source: https://www.latribune.ca/actualites/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreet--le-plc-le-bloc-et-le-npd-a-egalite-dans-sherbrooke-3bd34ce6def0aeb9efd5348fe21210eb
15/10/19 Manny Toba
Three way tie according to Mainstreet
Elisabeth Briere (LPC): 26.2% (-17.6)
Claude Forgues (BQ): 25.7% (+7.7)
Pierre-Luc Dusseault (NDP): 25.6% (+13.6)
Dany Sevigny (CPC): 11.6% (-1.7)
Mathieu Morin (GPC): 5.4% (-1.7)
14/10/19 Pulsetaker
Just a few weeks ago Mainstreet polled Sherbrooke and had a massive Liberal lead and NDP incumbent Pierre-Luc Dusseault was a distant 4th with just 12%. Today the head of Mainstreet Quito Maggi is tweeting that a new poll of Sherbrooke has a three way dead heat between the NDP, BQ and Liberals. Its clear that the NDP and ther BQ have had an upswing in Quebec since the debate and I wonder if this will be another situation like Berthier-Maskinonge where a very popular NDP incumbent is bucking the trend. Its worth noting that this is a pretty progressive university town that elected a Quebec Solidaire MNA last year - the fact that the BQ candidate got exposed as a racist last week who had posted stuff recently on social media denouncing all Muslims as evil - may also give Dusseault an opening.
09/10/19 Nick M.
I am placing this one as a Bloc win which is counter to the general consensus. I believe a Bloc wave of support is about to come, and is going to change Quebec party representation once again.
08/10/19 R.O.
The liberal prediction for this riding seems premature , the mainstreet poll which showed the liberals way ahead at the time did not include candidates names only political party. which helps to explain why they suddenly released 2 riding polls for Quebec showing ndp mp’s ahead. I’m sure the ndp incumbent for this riding would poll higher than 12 % if his name was included in the poll as he’s been the ridings mp since 2011. The bloc Quebecois also had some success in this riding not that long ago and are polling better in Quebec .
28/09/19 JSn
Anyone that thinks the from-nowhere NDP vote in 2011 that held up somewhat in 2015 are federalist votes, are nuts. These do not slip to the L or C column but to the BQ as the NDP fall. The PQ as a strategy shifted federal support to the NDP to cement its position that 50% + 1 can separate under the Clarity Act. And to bring BQ career politicians home to the PQ so it could win again. It only party worked but the ridings that had strong NDP showings will all have strong Bloc showings. No one became a federalist in 2011 or 2015, that's a delusional position from English media. The NDP and BQ compete for separatist votes while Green/Lib/Con split the federalists.
11/09/19 Laurence Putnam
BQ stagnation and the spectacular collapse of the NPD basically leave the Liberals as the only logical winner by deduction. In my earlier post I still held out hope that something could happen to boost Dusseault's fortunes, or that a compelling BQ candidate could come forward...something to change local dynamics. That does not appear to be happening. This is shaping up to be a Liberal win by default, reflective of provincial polling trends.
11/09/19 Marco Ricci
New Mainstreet poll for Sherbrooke published in Le Soliel today:
Liberal: 44%
BQ: 18%
Conservative: 13%
NDP: 12%
11/09/19 J.F. Breton
Élisabeth Brière is in very good position. Mainstreet Poll:
- Liberals (43,8%)
- Bloc (18%)
- Conservatives (13,3%)
- NDP (12%)
- Greens (7,1%)
- PPC (2,1%)
Source: https://www.latribune.ca/actualites/politique/le-plc-demarre-loin-devant-dans-sherbrooke-video-1574ab606b1f0f3100449f434c1cde63
02/09/19 A.S.
It was ‘safe Tory’ in concert with Mulroney-era Quebec; but in 1993/97 it was more safe *Jean Charest*--remember that in the byelection to replace him, the Tories got only 6.3%; and from there until the Orange Crush it was more of an urban-QC Bloc-progressive stronghold, and the ‘progressivism’ is was allowed Dusseault to survive in 1995 (and QS to be subsequently provincially elected). On those grounds, Dusseault might actually stand a stronger chance of surviving in 2019 than any non-Montreal QC New Democrat other than maybe Guy Caron--as Charest already proved, Sherbrooke tends to be relatively kind to the Babies Of The House that it elects. Never mind the coming-up-the-middle potential vs the riding's vestigial post-Charest Bloc inclinations and the Justin Libs' ascent as a post-separatist ‘urban party’. Of course, ‘stronger chance’ could just as well mean ‘winning less badly than others’; one has to wait and see.
22/08/20 seasaw
This was once a safe Tory seat. For awhile it was the only Tory seat in Quebec, but that was a long time ago, today however, with the NDP polling low and the Liberals polling high, I suspect this will be a Liberal pickup
04/06/19 Marco Ricci
CBC reports today that former PQ minister Réjean Hébert is considering a run for the Liberals. It hasn't been decided yet, but Sherbrooke is one of his options:
07/04/19 Laurence Putnam
On the plus side, for the NPD, I would say this one is their third best chance at keeping a seat in Quebec (Boulerice, Caron & Brosseau are the others, I think...)
1. Riding has maverick history, bucking trends 1993-1998 with Jean Charest
2. Dusseault has a reasonably good/high profile
3. Strong provincial QS support
4. Support is divided (somewhat) evenly amongst the other contenders
However all of those above points are just as easily refuted. Past results don't indicate future success. High profile candidates lose all the time. Provincial results don't always translate.
Dusseault will certainly make a good go of it, and he could yet win, but I would suspect the Liberals are probably the ones with the edge here, although a strong BQ campaign could make things interesting.
16/03/19 Sam
The QS provincial riding of Sherbrooke, whose voters the NDP are relying on, only makes up a slight of the federal riding of Sherbrooke. They need all of them and more to offset the vote in the rest of the riding, and in a climate that isn't favourable NDP, they could easily lose. Having said that, they have other advantages such as Pierre-Luc Dusseault's incumbency, but he still only won by 5% last time.
14/03/19 J.F. Breton
A NPD win here, really ? The latest poll puts the NDP at 7% in Quebec. There is no evidence that the QS vote will systematically go to the NDP. TCTC at this time.
05/03/19 Neal
Though he will have the fight of his young political life Pierre-Luc Dussault should hold this riding for the NDP. He has proven to be a highly visible and hard working and well liked MP. Despite his party's lagging fortunes, these traits should help him hang on, combined with the fact that there is a strong leftist factin in the riding. Note that Quebec Solidaire won it in 2018 provincially.

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