Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:43:57

Constituency Profile


Drabkin, Neil

Garneau, Marc

Gertler, Franklin

Green, Robert

Hoffman, Rachel

Jetté, Jennifer

Thomas, Jeffery A.

Valiquette, André


Marc Garneau

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



16.04 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Marc Garneau ** 2975557.70%
James Hughes 1122921.80%
Richard Sagala 741414.40%
Melissa Kate Wheeler 15813.10%
Simon Quesnel 12822.50%
Rachel Hoffman 1810.40%
Lisa Julie Cahn 1510.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2710.61%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (55.64% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (43.21% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (1.15% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberals could lose government but they'll still hold on here.
11/10/19 R.O.
Marc Garneau will surely hold this Montreal riding for the liberals despite there being uncertainly as to outcome in other Quebec seats.
02/09/19 A.S.
Of course, NDG *voted* Liberal in 2011, but didn't *elect* them, thanks to NDP-favouring Lachine being part of the riding. But then Lachine was swapped for Westmount, freeing Garneau to run in the new entity; and once Justinmania sunk in, it was foregone that his share and margin would be in *ahem* outer space. Incidentally, there *could* be Green second-place potential here--this is where the provincial Greens have tended to do the best (indeed including a couple of second-place finishes in the late noughts--though was versus your typical Putin-scaled PLQ gigamajorities around these parts)
16/04/19 Sam
A good minister and candidate here, but this is a safe Liberal riding anyway.
12/04/19 Laurence Putnam
The one candidate in Canada who lends a whole new meaning to ‘star candidate’.
His resume and cabinet position help of course, but they are entirely unnecessary as far as his re-election prospects go in what is already a very safe Liberal riding.
19/03/19 MF
An anglo Montreal riding that's filled with the ‘liberal elite’ demographic. Both Westmount and NDG have voted nothing but Liberal since 1962. It's one of the safest seats for the LPC in the country. Need I say more?
17/02/19 JW
Montreal West Island constituencies are generally reliably Liberal.

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