Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:48:01

Constituency Profile


Ducharme, Denis

Gagnon, Louis

Généreux, Bernard

Haché, Serge

Latulippe, Hugo

Legault d'Auteuil, Aladin


Bernard Généreux

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



7320.03 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bernard Généreux 1427429.00%
Marie-Josée Normand 1400228.40%
François Lapointe ** 1191824.20%
Louis Gagnon 793916.10%
Chantal Breton 8231.70%
Bien Gras Gagné 2870.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

20/10/19 prognosticator15
Before the Bloc surge, I would have said the riding was safe Conservative when the Liberals were main opposition. Now it is a three-party race, although with the Liberals behind, and it would again be very close. Bloc threatens everyone in eastern Quebec, in particular if a few NDP voters also switch to it as expected, but has greatest difficulty in attracting centre-right voters, in particular where CPC vote is concentrated most such as Quebec City area and nearby. Hence probability of CPC holding to its current ridings remains slightly higher than Bloc win, combined with 'popular MP' factor. It will be very close here and in Alupa Clarke's Beauport riding, but I will give a slight edge to CPC in both.
20/10/19 Gumpfor
I think it is way to early to call for the Bloc. This will be a tight battle till the last vote is counted I feel. Could even be a recount for this riding is a tough one but overall, the Conservative MP has been a strong voice and a well liked person in the riding. My thoughts because of this and how personal likings of the MP plays with Quebecers that this riding will go in the end to the Conservatives.
19/10/19 J.F. Breton
Une victoire du Bloc n'est pas du tout à exclure. Même le député conservateur sortant ne semblait plus vraiment y croire dans ses dernières entrevues, disant qu'il irait faire autre chose s'il devrait perdre.
17/10/19 Tony Ducey
That riding poll listed below points to a close race. I think it'll be close but the Bloc surge will lead this to be a seat they gain on Monday.
17/10/19 R.O.
Bernard Genereux has been the mp for this riding for a number of years, first elected in a by election in 2009. its odd the race here seems to be him vs whatever party has momentum in Quebec ,in 2009 it was the bloc and he won by a small margin, in 2011 it was the ndp and he lost narrowly , in 2015 it was the liberals and he narrowly won. It would seem his main opponent this year was the bloc, as they have momentum in Quebec and was a mainstreet poll for this riding showing cpc and bloc basically tied here. so more than likely another close result here , but he seems to have a following in the riding as he’s been mp for a number of years .
11/10/19 J.F. Breton
Lutte très intéressante dans cette circonscription. Le Bloc et les Conservateurs sont au coude-à-coude. Les prochains sondages permettront sans doute de dégager une tendance. Sondage Mainstreet:
- Conservateurs (29,3%)
- Bloc (28,9%)
- Libéraux (23,6%)
- NPD (8%)
- Verts (6%)
- PPC (4%)
Source: https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/bloc-et-conservateur-au-coude-a-coude-dans-montmagny-selon-mainstreet-0744260b0683dad4151de5a71d79cecb
21/09/19 The Jackal
With the recent uptick in the polls for the CPC I will call this a Conservative hold.
07/09/19 A.S.
Another seat that could benefit from CPC ‘safety in numbers’, given how it's the easternmost prong of their Quebec City nucleus--and the bare 2015 winning share doesn't matter; in fact, the fact that this is predominantly rural (as opposed to, say, Beauport-Limoilou) bodes well for the Cons increasing their footprint. Though I know better than to offer anything firm for the only non-NPD seat in Quebec where less than 5 points separated the top 3 parties...
26/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Genereux may have only gone 2/3, with a very weak win last time, but he's still the top dog in soft-nationalist Mario Dumont country here. Equipe Bleu is looking to rebound in this election, even in Quebec where they appear to be up and it only goes to figure they'll do even better in the ridings they've been winning anyway. The Liberals aren't in contention here, so who else can take Genereux on? Maybe the Bloc...but they're pretty far behind at the moment, certainly Genereux is a better bet than the Bloc. Nobody else is seriously in the running.
06/04/19 Legolas
Another one which is tricky to call. It could go Liberal or CPC depending on how the next few months play out. The CPC candidate did not win by much, but his by-election win in 2010 shows that the CPC does have a higher ceiling than what they got in 2015. The NDP is collapsing and this really isn't a Bloc-y seat anymore, so if the Liberals can get those votes it could help them win it.
18/03/19 Dr.Bear
A clear three-way race in 2015 and Genereux won it in a squeaker. The NDP have pretty much collapsed, so there will be about 8K to 10K votes to distribute among other parties. Anyone who was voting for Genereux because of his former stint as mayor will already have been included in his 2015 total. I do not expect his share to increase because of that. Rather I think any increase will be due to increased CPC fortunes in the province.
11/03/19 Sam
Not a safe riding for the Conservatives in any sense but Genereux has the profile and qualities to win big. The only thing that may cloud this is the fact that Genereux lost in 2011, but that was in far less favourable circumstances, where both the Cote areas went NDP. He should win now.
25/02/19 J.F. Breton
Bernard Généreux is really not in danger. Easy win for the Conservatives in Chaudière-Appalaches. Généreux, former mayor has stong local roots.

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