Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Louis-Saint-Laurent
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:36:52
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Amram Ducharme, Colette

Côté, Guillaume

Cusson, Jean-Christophe

Deltell, Gérard

Desgagnés, Jeanne-Paule

Riedo, Sandra Mara


Incumbent:

Gérard Deltell

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

117238
106888

52195
50861

138.17 km²
848.5/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Gérard Deltell 3263750.50%
Youri Rousseau 1385221.40%
G. Daniel Caron 1029615.90%
Ronald Sirard 668810.30%
Michel Savard 12101.90%


2011 Results (redistributed)

2127837.58%
2257639.88%
36076.37%
812714.36%
8521.50%
Other 1750.31%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Louis-Saint-Laurent
   (99.98% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Louis-Hébert
   (0.02% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


18/10/19 Tony Ducey
24.137.73.188
I think the CPC could lose every other riding in Quebec but they'll keep this 1. Deltell's someone I can see going for their leadership for 2023 or sooner if we get a minority govt.
07/09/19 A.S.
99.225.32.21
Nobody would have predicted circa Y2K that this seat would become CPC bedrock; in fact, it had been a soft Bloc seat that was a Lib pickup during Jean Chretien's 2000 ‘mini-comeback’. But now it is--and it helps that Deltell's likely the most urbane of the party's Quebec caucus.
02/06/19 Sam
86.188.103.160
Hard to see anything other than a win for the CPC here. The Quebec City region is their heartland, and the 50% margin last time is indicative of their strength here.
06/04/19 Legolas
109.70.100.19
Deltell is locally popular and has always been prominent in the riding. The CPC won this seat with 50%+ in 2015 so I do not see them losing this with the way they are polling now.
20/03/19 Stevo
165.225.76.189
This was the CPC's best Quebec seat in 2004 under candidate Josée Verner (in defeat) and second best in 2006 and 2008 (in victory). It just barely slipped out of their hands in 2011 due to the Layton NDP surge but returned to normal in 2015. With Bernier splitting the vote in Beauce, this will likely be the CPC's best Quebec seat this year.
25/02/19 Dr. Bear
104.195.227.46
A conservative leaning riding with a very strong candidate in Deltell. This will easily stay in the CPC column.
25/02/19 J.F. Breton
135.19.103.179
Easy gain for PCC in Quebec City area. Gerard Deltell will easily have the support of the CAQ and Quebec 21 members. Same DNA.
24/02/19 Teddy Boragina
45.72.192.93
This is one of the most Conservative and conservative ridings in the province; and with Deltell as the MP, I don't see that changing any time soon. This riding in particular has been very brand-friendly towards the Conservative Party, with the party only losing it two times; 2004 when they did not win any Quebec seats, and 2011 when the NDP swept the province.



Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster