Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:36:40

Constituency Profile


Brisson, Daniel

Dahan, Ali

Diab, Macarena

Guérette, Marie-Josée

Hébert, Christian

Juneau, Jérémie

Lightbound, Joël


Joël Lightbound

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



94.78 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Joël Lightbound 2151634.80%
Jean-Pierre Asselin 1678927.20%
Denis Blanchette ** 1285020.80%
Caroline Pageau 890014.40%
Andrée-Anne Beaudoin-Julien 15612.50%
Stefan Jetchick 1280.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1430.24%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
Riding hasn't had a 2 term MP since the 80's. I think that will change this time. Joel Lightbound will keep his seat.
30/09/19 R.O.
Seems like an early one to call, riding has a history of being a swing riding and going thru mp’s rather quickly. No mp has been re-elected here in recent memory, the last one who did was back in the 80’s. riding really depends on the final week and if there is any movement either way. If the bloc Quebecois does better than past years or how strong the cpc is in the Quebec city region. I also wonder how the green party will do here for some odd reason.
27/09/19 GillesB02
Another riding that could go red or blue. This time the Liberals do not have the advantage of having a cabinet minister unlike its neighbour riding. I find it really weird that Mainstreet suggests the CPC are below their 2015 results, which doesn't match their other riding polls with the CPC up in all of them. It is one of those ridings among many in the region with a weird urban-suburban duality. I don't think a riding poll can really capture a clear outcome in those kinds of ridings.
11/09/19 Marco Ricci
New Mainstreet poll today reported in Le Soliel:
Liberal: 40%
Conservative: 19%
BQ: 19%
Green: 8%
People's Party: 7%
NDP: 5%
11/09/19 J.F. Breton
Joël Lightbound (Liberals) is in very good position. Mainstreet Poll:
- Liberals (39,6%)
- Conservatives (19,2%)
- Bloc (18,7%)
- Greens (8,2%)
- NDP (5%)
Source: https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/politique/sondage-mainstreet-avance-confortable-pour-lightbound-dans-louis-hebert-25e7132859dbebac7349eed7b06055a4
31/08/19 A.S.
Re the ‘typical [provincial] Liberal voters’ here: actually, Louis-Hebert is Capitale-Nationale's most cosmopolitan-cultural-class riding, sort of like their St. Paul's with the Laval U element thrown in for good measure; and that, more than anything, explains the PLQ's persistence--much more than its suburban neighbours, Louis-Hebert is *not* defined by economic conservativism or suspicion of Justin's social policies. (Or, those capital-region characteristics are mainly confined to the riding's NW ‘airport panhandle’.) It's not out of line for this to be CPC-winnable; but I suspect that NDP leakage around these parts--particularly that closest to the city centre--is likelier to default to the Libs
21/08/20 QuebecCityOliver
While prognosticators from the ROC discuss this with certainty, I remain unconvinced.
Davie is a non-issue in Quebec City (north shore). Let that one go unless you are talking about Lévis.
Secondly, where are those NDP votes going to go. They will not, in general go CPC. They will go to the Bloc, Greens of LPC.
The simple fact is that almost anyone can win this seat but the LPC has got to be favoured, at least for the moment.
30/07/20 GillesB02
One of the two liberals in this region who will have a hard time keeping their seat. With the CPC being up in the polls in QC, this could fall into the CPC column. Though this will be a hard battle for the two main parties, since the uptown part of the riding favors the Liberal, as seen in the last provincial election where Sébastien Proulx was the only liberal to be elected east of Montreal, not counting the leader's seat. But the typical Liberal voters here are more in line with the CPC economically, and aren't much of a fan of Trudeau's social policies. Right now, the CPC has a chance to pick this seat, and this might be one of those ridings that could decide the election.
13/05/19 Neal
Lightbound assured his defeat this weak when he went on the attack against the popular premier at Trudeau's behest.
Totally uneccessary.
An if that wasn't bad enough this story broke today.
Norman was told by Harper cabinet to talk to Quebec shipyard about leasing deal
This assures us of a Conservative victory in Louis Hebert, and possibly Quebec as well.
I also believe this will be very damaging to Liberals in general in Francophone Quebec, and will benefit either Conservatives or the Bloc depending on the region. We haven't heard the last of this. Chalk up the whole Quebec City region as blue, no more TCTC here.
06/04/19 Legolas
This is a CPC-LPC race, but what will matter here is who the CPC pick as their candidate. This should be target #1 for them in the province and a seat they've held before. It's also a seat with a big young person population (especially closer to downtown Quebec), a group which has become more and more out of reach for the CPC lately. There are also the wealthiest parts of Quebec City in this seat too, who usually split between the CPC and LPC. Too close to call for now.
02/04/19 Sam
I wouldn't call this for the Conservatives just yet. I agree with what @Neal said, although if the riding is elastic enough that it has changed party each of the recent election cycles, than TCTC seems a better call. If the winds blow the right way this is still a Liberal hold, which would be impressive given the history, but nevertheless it would be possible.
05/03/19 Neal
Louis Hebert is the riding candidates who draw the short straw go to as they seem to turf their MP with each election.Liberal, Bloc Conservative,Bloc, NDP, Liberal...
This time it goes back to the Conservatives, especially with the popularity of the CAQ government in the region, it should carry over to their ideological federal cousins.
So Lightbound is gone, but will his successor survive more than one term?

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