Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:43:51

Constituency Profile


Bélanger, Rhino Jacques

Côté, Julien

Dion, Isabel

Lametti, David

Mercier, Jency

Rocchi, Claudio

Scott, Steven

Studd, Eileen

Turgeon, Daniel


David Lametti

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



18.84 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

David Lametti 2360343.90%
Hélène LeBlanc ** 1556629.00%
Gilbert Paquette 916417.00%
Mohammad Zamir 37136.90%
Lorraine Banville 17173.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3920.80%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (50.12% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Jeanne-Le Ber
   (49.87% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Lametti's not the strongest justice minister but he's still in no danger here. Liberal hold.
12/09/19 Marco Ricci
CBC News:
The NDP candidate for LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, Olivier Mathieu, is stepping down amid allegations of domestic abuse against a former spouse.
Mathieu denies the allegations but says he is withdrawing from the race for the good of the party.
02/09/19 A.S.
To further debunk the ‘ancestral’ claim: while this may carry on the name of Paul Martin Jr.'s riding, it's a little more complicated than that--redistribution swapped a lot of LaSalle's best Liberal polls on behalf of Verdun, creating what would have been (or almost have been) a Bloc seat for much of the naughts. Indeed, the notional 2011 figures within these boundaries put the Libs in *third*, behind the Bloc. But with Lametti's cabinet bragging rights, hard to see how this'll escape from LPC clutches now unless the Bloc's headed back to its glory days of 40+ seats.
31/05/19 seasaw
David Lametti may not be the most honest person, he's definitely not the best Minister of Justice, but he's very safe here. Even if the other parties nominated Jesus Christ and his appostels, he'd beat them with no difficulty.
07/05/19 Daniel Beaudin
I would like to rectify a previous comment on the ancestrality of the liberals in the Lasalle-Emard-Verdun riding. The incumbent, the Honourable David Lametti had to beat NDP Helene Leblanc who was the MP since 2011. That one was all but easy. A few years back the Right Honourable Paul Martin beat Conservative Claude Lanthier by 1500 votes only. He later became prime minister of Canada. That being said, David Lametti should win by more than 50% of the votes this time.
18/04/19 Sam
This is safe and ancestrally Liberal. All the other parties are just too far behind.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
This is Paul Martin's former riding and he survived both times even during adscam, so with Trudeau being more popular in Quebec than Martin was, easy Liberal hold.

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