Benoît, Julie
	Charles, Gary
	Chevalier, Dana
	Coelho, Ralston
	de Martigny, Victoria
	Francis, Ann
	Kona-Mancini, Milan
	Scarpaleggia, Francis
Incumbent:
	Francis Scarpaleggia

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			108579 108795 40778 39370 78.38 km² 1385.2/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Francis Scarpaleggia **	39965	64.10%
	Eric Girard	10857	17.40%
	Ryan Young	7997	12.80%
	Bradford Dean	1812	2.90%
	Gabriel Bernier	1681	2.70%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		15434	28.44%
		16312	30.06%
		18502	34.10%
		1693	3.12%
		2319	4.27%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Lac-Saint-Louis    (99.67% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine    (0.33% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	17/10/19	Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188
This election's up in the air big time but this seat's not. Liberal hold.
	02/09/19	A.S. 99.225.32.21
Interesting reminder that this was Eric Girard's practice run in 2015--but seriously; as it now stands, the Cons are as likely to win here federally as the ADQ is to win here provincially. And within these boundaries, the ADQ was over *50* points behind the PLQ (though admittedly, they aren't as identifiably ‘alterna-federalist’ an option as the CPC)
	04/06/19	Laurence Putnam 24.207.100.204
Quite frankly, to predict anything else would be absurd.
	02/06/19	seasaw 99.225.244.232
While I do agree with Neal that there's a good chance the CPC might do better, don't think they're going to be anywhere near competitive in this riding. Doing a lot better would mean losing by only 20 points instead of 47
	17/05/19	Marco Ricci 174.114.238.210
I'm puzzled as to why Neal thinks the Conservatives will be competitive here. Scarpaleggia beat Girard by 47 points in 2015. This is one of the safest Liberal ridings in Quebec, and Scarpaleggia even won during the Layton Wave in 2011. I don't see this riding being competitive for the Conservatives unless they elect a Quebec leader who is popular in Montreal.
	13/05/19	Neal 65.94.152.39
After Mont- Royal, this is the Tories next best bet in Montreal. In fact, if Eric Girard was representing them again this time, instead of sitting in Quebec as the province's finance minsiter, , and given the woes the federal Liberals are facing, I would give the Tories the edge. I do not know enough about Ann Francis to give her the edge just yet. What Liberal incumbent Francis Scarpeleggia needs to worry about most, however is the Greens. We are certainly looking a Green surge at the moment, which may turn into a Green wave, especially if either Jody Wilson Raybould and Jane Philpott sign on with the Greens. The Greens a re a natural second choice for many ‘progressive’ west islanders, and could steal enough votes from the vulnerable Liberals to allow the Conservatives ton sneak up the middle here.
	06/04/19	Sam 86.188.96.179
One of the most reliably Liberal areas in the country, as well as at provincial level. Francis Scarpaleggia should hold this.
	17/02/19	JW 45.41.168.96
Montreal West Island constituencies are generally reliably Liberal. This seat even withheld the 2011 Orange Crush. Not going to flip in this election.