Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:43:48

Constituency Profile


Benoît, Julie

Charles, Gary

Chevalier, Dana

Coelho, Ralston

de Martigny, Victoria

Francis, Ann

Kona-Mancini, Milan

Scarpaleggia, Francis


Francis Scarpaleggia

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



78.38 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Francis Scarpaleggia ** 3996564.10%
Eric Girard 1085717.40%
Ryan Young 799712.80%
Bradford Dean 18122.90%
Gabriel Bernier 16812.70%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.67% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.33% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
This election's up in the air big time but this seat's not. Liberal hold.
02/09/19 A.S.
Interesting reminder that this was Eric Girard's practice run in 2015--but seriously; as it now stands, the Cons are as likely to win here federally as the ADQ is to win here provincially. And within these boundaries, the ADQ was over *50* points behind the PLQ (though admittedly, they aren't as identifiably ‘alterna-federalist’ an option as the CPC)
04/06/19 Laurence Putnam
Quite frankly, to predict anything else would be absurd.
02/06/19 seasaw
While I do agree with Neal that there's a good chance the CPC might do better, don't think they're going to be anywhere near competitive in this riding. Doing a lot better would mean losing by only 20 points instead of 47
17/05/19 Marco Ricci
I'm puzzled as to why Neal thinks the Conservatives will be competitive here. Scarpaleggia beat Girard by 47 points in 2015. This is one of the safest Liberal ridings in Quebec, and Scarpaleggia even won during the Layton Wave in 2011. I don't see this riding being competitive for the Conservatives unless they elect a Quebec leader who is popular in Montreal.
13/05/19 Neal
After Mont- Royal, this is the Tories next best bet in Montreal. In fact, if Eric Girard was representing them again this time, instead of sitting in Quebec as the province's finance minsiter, , and given the woes the federal Liberals are facing, I would give the Tories the edge.
I do not know enough about Ann Francis to give her the edge just yet.
What Liberal incumbent Francis Scarpeleggia needs to worry about most, however is the Greens. We are certainly looking a Green surge at the moment, which may turn into a Green wave, especially if either Jody Wilson Raybould and Jane Philpott sign on with the Greens. The Greens a re a natural second choice for many ‘progressive’ west islanders, and could steal enough votes from the vulnerable Liberals to allow the Conservatives ton sneak up the middle here.
06/04/19 Sam
One of the most reliably Liberal areas in the country, as well as at provincial level. Francis Scarpaleggia should hold this.
17/02/19 JW
Montreal West Island constituencies are generally reliably Liberal. This seat even withheld the 2011 Orange Crush. Not going to flip in this election.

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