Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:37:59

Constituency Profile


Bourgeois, Michel

Masse, Jean-Martin

Poirier, Érica

Prescott, Sylvain

Savard, Paul

Soumaoro, Julienne

Ste-Marie, Gabriel


Gabriel Ste-Marie

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



8206.16 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Gabriel Ste-Marie 1887533.30%
Michel Bourgeois 1599528.20%
Danielle Landreville 1456625.70%
Soheil Eid 570510.10%
Mathieu Morin 13352.40%
Robert D. Morais 2130.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.99% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
This seat has been Bloc every year since 1993 except for 2011 and the orange crush election. They hold on here in 2019.
09/10/19 R.O.
Long time bloc Quebecois riding with the exception of 2011 when it went ndp , likely to stay bloc this year as Gabriel St Marie the incumbent and bloc polling better.
04/09/19 A.S.
Good thing the Veronique Hivon factor's been raised--as a star and potential leader of a decimated PQ caucus, she's perfect rootsy reinforcement for your typical ADQ-Bloc crossover dynamic. In fact, this and Manicouagan are the only two federal seats where federal BQ *and* provincial PQ representation presently overlap.
08/04/19 Sam
Like most of the other Bloc ridings this has an urban/rural mix, suggesting it's fertile for them, and indeed is in a fertile region for them. Gabriel Ste Marie has been a noticeable MP throughout his first term and should win again. Joliette itself also went PQ, and the PLQ performed badly here, so many of these point to another Bloc win. It could be close, but I don't see anyone else taking this realistically.
26/02/19 J.F. Breton
NDP collapse in Quebec. New leader at the Bloc and rising in the polls. Laurentides / Lanaudière is a fertile ground for the Bloc. Veronique Hivon will aslo be a real support. Victory of Gabriel Ste-Marie without hesitation.

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