Deschênes, Alexandre
	Duggan, Mike
	Fergus, Greg
	Grenier, Sébastien
	Poirier Defoy, Josée
	Riopel, Joanie
	Tanguay, Rowen
	Thibodeau, Nicolas
Incumbent:
	Greg Fergus

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			105419 103447 52089 47943 62.11 km² 1697.3/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Greg Fergus	28478	51.40%
	Nycole Turmel **	17472	31.50%
	Étienne Boulrice	4278	7.70%
	Maude Chouinard-Boucher	3625	6.50%
	Roger Fleury	1035	1.90%
	Sean J. Mulligan	291	0.50%
	Luc Desjardins	160	0.30%
	Gabriel Girard-Bernier	101	0.20%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		5050	10.04%
		29552	58.78%
		10304	20.49%
		4362	8.68%
		1012	2.01%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Hull-Aylmer    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	18/10/19	Jean-Nicholas MartineauJohnny 5 70.83.84.175
This will stay Liberal , 2011 was a big wow for the ndp, but cant beat the liberal tradition here in 2015. However the riding is changing, a well known conservative candidate here in Mike duggan well known former Gatineau city councillor, could at least make them competitive. and even pull a strong second ^place, bleeding ndp vote could mean a strong third place for the bloc!
	17/10/19	Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188
This riding dates back more than 100 years and only once has a non Liberal been elected here. I think that continues on here in 2019.
	02/10/19	R.O. 24.146.17.200
This riding will likely stay liberal , with the 2011 ndp victory going down in history as the 1 time it didn’t. more interesting question might be who comes in second here ? without a high profile candidate not sure the ndp can stay 2nd here and might see conservatives or bloc instead.
	31/08/19	A.S. 99.225.32.21
In pre-Mulcair terms, this would have been the most ‘naturally’ low-hanging Quebec fruit for the NDP outside Montreal, even if they never really came pre-Orange Crush close. And y'know, much like vs Justin in Papineau, they *could* fake their way into 2nd place again, if only because the Bloc doesn't seem as ‘urban-appeal’ as it once was. In fact, I wouldn't rule out double-digit shares for either CPC or NDP...though if those two and the Bloc all do so, the likelihood of either reaching 20% is minimal.
	02/07/19	Laurence Putnam 96.53.49.70
I have nothing to add and It would be impossible to improve upon the correct analyses proffered below.
	30/05/19	seasaw 99.225.244.232
Greg Fergus should be able to get well over 50% in this riding, the CPC is non existant, the Bloc is weak and the love affair with the NDP is over. Expect the CPC, PPC and NDP to be in single digit percentage and the Bloc to get 20% max.
	12/04/19	Sam 86.188.98.74
This is a long time Liberal riding and only went orange in the 2011 collapse. It will go Liberal again in these conditions, the Ottawa area is trending Liberal particularly on the Quebec side.
	24/02/19	M. Lunn 174.7.100.252
Large civil service and fairly federalist riding so only the NDP could realistically challenge them here and with how weak they are in Quebec, this should stay Liberal.