Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:31:13

Constituency Profile


Driver, Stephen

Godin-Charest, Sylvie

Kelly, Claire

MacDonald, Brad

MacLaren, Luke

Petitpas Taylor, Ginette

Williams, Rhys


Ginette Petitpas Taylor

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



157.02 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ginette Petitpas Taylor 3005457.80%
Robert Goguen ** 1116821.50%
Luc LeBlanc 842016.20%
Luc Melanson 23994.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 R.O.
The liberal incumbent has an advantage in this riding but one of a number of ridings where you can’t help but wonder how will the green’s do. There previous best result was 8% in 2008, one has to think they could easily beat that % this year . the riding went cpc narrowly in 2011 but not really a target this year although candidate Sylvie Godin Charest is active in the riding. Moncton has mostly been a liberal riding although had the odd conservative over the years.
17/10/19 Tony Ducey
This seat stayed Liberal during Harper's minority and was Liberal during Mulroney's 2nd term. Add in the Liberal candidate being minister of health and you get a Liberal hold here.
03/10/19 Political Junkie
I think this riding is TCTC, leaning CPC. GPT is a solid candidate, but so too is the well-known CPC candidate in the area. Having spent quite a bit of time there over the summer months, and this past September, I think this riding could be a surprise. People like Ginette, but Sylvie is very impressive as well and well-regarded in the community. NB poll numbers are down for the LPC and if the CPC are going to pick up seats in Atlantic Canada, a good chunk of them are going to be coming from NB. It wasn't long ago (2011) that the CPC held this seat, albeit they only held it for 4 years, but with LPC polling numbers down across the province and an Acadian CPC candidate, I think LPC has a bit more of a fight on their hands than they let on.
11/09/19 A.S.
Unless we're getting MPs confused, I don't know where the idea of the Minister of Health being ‘low profile’ comes from (particularly as she has the most recognizable LPC black pageboy 'do since Anne McLellan). But Moncton only switches teams, or is in threat of the same, when the Libs are in the dumpster *or* in the hypothetical event of someone like Bernard Lord bearing the Conservative standard (and that's more of an 00's than 10's hypothetical). And the ‘Leonard Jones’ language wars are long past, or else relegated to the rural ridings.
15/05/19 Craig
Sure, the Liberal MP is low profile, but it won't make too much of a difference. It would take a perfect split for this seat to return to play and 2011 was likely a fluke. There is no evidence of any Green strength here either to potentially split the vote.
Moncton tends to generally lean Liberal, which alone should make the difference with Dieppe being overwhelmingly Liberal. The Conservatives might be able to do well in primarily Anglophone Riverview, but that won't be nearly enough to win. All that should lead to another Liberal win, despite dropping in regional and national polls.
13/03/19 Sam
The Conservatives had no real chance of winning this last time and the margin they won is still insurmountable. The scenarios which @M. Lunn described are necessary yet highly unlikely.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Tories only won this in 2011 due to strong splits so while I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories get over 30%, I still suspect this will stay Liberal. Tories need to get over 40% or have the NDP get in the 20s for Liberals to be in trouble here and neither seems likely at this point.

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