Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:30:54

Constituency Profile


Atwin, Jenica

DeCourcey, Matt

Johnson, Andrea

Kirby, Brandon

Patterson, Jacob

Paull, Jason

Thomas, Lesley

Thomason, Mackenzie


Matt DeCourcey

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1502.52 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Matt DeCourcey 2301649.30%
Keith Ashfield ** 1328028.40%
Mary Lou Babineau 580412.40%
Sharon Scott-Levesque 46229.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2140.55%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.47% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   New Brunswick Southwest
   (0.53% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 LFCOttawa
A LPC/GPC split will see the CPC squeak this one out
17/10/19 CR
Four factors, I believe, will result in this going green:
1. Progressive voters in the riding think that they can elect a green, which may be the most important part of this, as that means they're going to turn up to the polls. While progressive voters are impressed with Singh, the local candidate often stumbled during the debates that I watched, and Singh hasn't even visited New Brunswick. Progressive voters know the NDP has no chance of winning Fredericton. Their maximum was in 2011 when the Liberal vote collapsed, and their numbers in the provincial election last year were abysmal.
2. Local debates highlighted that three individuals seemed ready to be an MP for Fredericton - Liberals, Conservatives and Greens. The only English debate painted both Trudeau and Scheer in a bad light. Clinic 554 became a local issue that hit the federal stage, and the greens are championing it. Elizabeth May took time to stop in Fredericton after the closure was announced and both she and Jenica Atwin showed up at rallies in downtown Fredericton the day after it happened. It shows a differentiation between the Liberals (Mr. Delay) and the greens.
3. I don't think the PPC in this riding is going to poll 1%. Jason Paull ran in the Fredericton West-Hanwell riding in the provincial election in 2018 and obtained 20.9% of the vote. I can't imagine him doing as poorly as 1% in a riding which includes part of Kris Austin's PA constituents. Even if we put him at just 5% the Conservatives aren't leading this one.
4. Fredericton voters have already elected someone other than the Liberals and Conservatives to provincial office. With neither of the leaders of the two major political parties appealing to voters, the local Liberal candidate not running a particularly strong re-election campaign, the strong efforts made by the greens to attempt to pick this one up and the positive ratings of David Coon (the local provincial representative) I think we'll see Jenica Atwin as the MP for Fredericton on the 21st.
17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Could be a very close riding here on Monday. Green's could win here but their support seems to be dying down a little. Conservatives have held this riding from 2008-2015 so they could make it interesting. I think this riding will see the Liberals, CPC and Greens hit the 30% mark each but Liberal Matt Decourcey will hold on here.
16/10/19 J.P. (election-atlas.ca)
I'm ready to go out on a limb and say that Jenica Atwin will win this one. She's winning the sign war easily in the downtown/hill areas she needs to, and is holding her own in the rest of the city. Matt DeCourcey has been scared enough by the threat to send green-coloured brochures, and Justin Trudeau was in town today to try to save the furniture. With the Liberal campaign bleeding progressive votes in the final weeks and the NDP not a threat locally, Atwin could reap the rewards. The biggest drawback is her GOTV machine may not be as big as DeCourcey or Johnson, but I still have her coming out on top.
15/10/19 J.F. Breton
Meilleure chance des Verts en Atlantique. Justin Trudeau qui débarque à Fredericton à 6 jours du scrutin, ça en dit long sur la lutte serrée entre les Libéraux, les Conservateurs et les Verts. Les agrégateurs de sondages placent les Verts légèrement en arrière, mais j'ose croise à un sursaut et à une concentration des efforts et du vote vert.
15/10/19 R.O.
To further my post , there is a new mainstreet poll for this riding , indicates a 3 way race , liberals a slight lead but within margin of error.

Quito Maggi? @quito_maggi · 17h17 hours ago
In Fredericton, Liberal incumbent @MattDeCourcey leads both @CanadianGreens & @CPC_HQ challengers within MOE 3 way tie
Liberal incumbents in tight races in St. John’s East, Fredericton: Mainstreet polls, By Marco Vigliotti. Published on Oct 15, 2019 12:00am
15/10/19 R.O.
I don’t doubt the greens will do better than 2015 in most of New Brunswick but not sure they’ll be able to win a seat like they did provincially. This riding has typically been a liberal / conservative race , never been an ndp riding but they did have some strong showings in the past. The conservatives have a new candidate this year as former mp Keith Ashfield passed away in 2018. Andrea Johnson won the nomination earlier this year and is new to federal politics.
13/10/19 Physastr Master
I was starting to get on board the whole ‘the Greens might win Fredericton!’ bandwagon, but then the Green share of the vote in the atlantic basically halved overnight according to many of the newest polls, owing to a meteoric rise of the NDP. The good news for them is that the trendlines for the LPC and CPC here don't look much better (sorry CPC voters, you're not out of the woods yet). I think the way this goes probably depends on the nature of the NDP rise. If people are switching to the NDP from the greens because they seem them as more viable, then if there's a strong enough Green campaign in Fredricton - i.e. strong enough to stomp out the NDP campaign, they might win. Otherwise, the NDP will just split the vote with the greens, and it will go LPC or CPC. I think the conservatives are probably most likely, but with the right split the liberal could win (although the path is narrow), with a strong enough local campaign it could go green, and if the atlantic orange surge turns into a full-on orange crush, it could go NDP, but that's a stretch, and certainly not feasible with even the most optimistic of current outlooks. I don't know, the locals will know better than I do, I've never been anywhere near New Brunswick. Do people think Jagmeet-mania is going to disrupt the groundswell of Green excitement?
11/10/19 JCD
This will probably be the Green breakthrough seat outside of BC. The Greens are handily winning the lawn sign contest and their campaign has raised around $50,000. 338Canada has the Liberals, Greens, and Conservatives in a statistical tie (31/30.6/30.5%) based on public polling numbers. That may be an underestimation, as it doesn't take into account the strong Green support in the city, where the leader of the provincial Greens won his seat (Fredericton South) last year with 56% of the vote. The Greens can win this seat as long as their supporters don't flip to the Liberals at the last second due to fear of a Conservative victory, and as long as they manage to get their voters out to the polling stations. Strategic voting by NDP supporters who want to block a red/blue win may contribute to a Green victory.
18/09/19 JBB
This will be close. Oromocto and downtown, and University area polls will be Green Strong. Northside and other outlying areas will be CON. Libs will take the rest. NDP has no candidate and would not make a difference here.
Green will get enoung votes to win if the liberals fall apart, but the CONS could take this in place of the Greens. LIBS will struggle here
15/09/19 JSn
This is a three way Green, Liberal, Con race. NDP may drop to 6 or 8 points given strength of provincial Greens and the best federal campaign in Atlantic Canada last time. Babineau could likely take this riding, because campaigning experience counts. Atwin maybe has a tougher challenge but the Greens are going to put all their mobile campaigners into this riding. And it will be a target for vote swaps & one to one appeals.
11/09/19 A.S.
I wouldn't be so sure about a split left working on behalf of the Cons here--one reason being that Fredericton's a primarily urban riding with really quite little in the way of ‘outlying areas’; and another being that the fundamental maverick-ness of a perceived viable Green option can draw from all realms, even Conservative. A third circumstance to consider: that even the right isn't immune to splitting, particularly if there's a PANB/PPC crossover dynamic (keeping in mind that Fredericton encompasses part of PANB leader Kris Austin's constituency).
12/06/19 Craig
I'm ready to call Fredericton. The Greens have made decent gains Canada-wide, mainly at Liberal expense. In addition, the Conservatives have risen substantially in Atlantic Canada and are now close to, if not ahead of, the Liberals.
That combination will be a 1-2 punch for DeCourcey with more Green support in urban Fredericton (there isn't nearly enough in the riding as a whole to pick it up for themselves though), and more importantly, much more Conservative support in the outlying areas (where they should run up the numbers like last year provincially). Result should be a CPC pickup.
11/05/19 Right Honourable Adult
There is now a highly-likely scenario that the split on the left will allow the Tories to sail through here whereas it should otherwise be a tougher fight. Same dynamic will hold for other ridings where the Greens punch above their weight but aren't quite dominant (in contrast to Guelph, Vancouver Island's ridings...)
30/04/19 Stevo
Fredericton is probably the closest thing to an Atlantic bellwether seat. Like the Ontario bellwethers (Peterborough, St. Catharines) it is a mid-sized city that has the right mix of public sector and private, urban and exurban, traditional Canadians and immigrant groups, anglo and franco, religiosity and secularism, and diverse socioeconomic groups to make it viable for both Liberals and Conservatives and therefore tends to vote with the national winner with some exceptions (2006, for example). Like any bellwether, it's simply too early to call this one.
05/04/19 Craig
This is going to be the most interesting race in New Brunswick, and probably in all of Atlantic Canada. The Liberals are not doing particularly well among Anglophone voters, while this is the best riding in Atlantic Canada for the Greens. Provincially, Fredericton was a battle royale with all four parties winning seats in the area.
Urban Fredericton is largely white collar, yet has an environmental tinge to it as well. The Greens will likely make major gains there at Liberal expense being the top progressive alternative (the NDP is irrelevant here). But that vote split could open the door to the Conservatives, especially if they replicate the domination of the rural Saint John Valley last year (the PC's + PANB combined for 70% or more in many rural polls near Fredericton). Too close to call in a potential 3 way race.
31/03/19 Murphy
It is looking more and more like a three-way race in Fredericton, with the Greens poll numbers increasing, and the Liberal vote collapsing at the expense of the Conservatives. Too close to call at the moment, will be an interesting race over the next few months.
13/03/19 JP (election-atlas.ca)
I disagree that DeCourcey has been that impressive, he's just come across as a typical partisan MP to me, and his fortunes will probably rise and fall with the national party.
On the Tory side, If ex-MLA Brian Macdonald runs for the CPC like he implied last year, he should at least improve on Keith Ashfield's showing.
The wild card is the Greens. The provincial results from last year are a good guide - not only did Coon win his seat, but they did well enough in the rest of the city to show that their message can break through outside the usual downtown/university types. A good candidate can, at least, play spoiler and hand it to the CPC; at best, win it outright.
I see Fredericton as a real 3-way race right now.
27/02/19 Sam
This riding has often been a bellwether, but still will have a few unique factors this October. It is a strong riding for the Greens which may hurt the Liberals if the Greens contest it; this is likely as it is their best riding in the Maritimes. Given the fact the Conservatives have a very strong chance of winning the neighbouring Fundy Royal and Tobique ridings, a similar increase in support may be enough. The incumbent Liberal is still an appealing candidate who has risen highly in the Liberal caucus, so it will be close, although the Liberals appear to have a slight edge.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
I wouldn't call this quite yet for the Liberals. I agree they are favoured, but far from certain. A few things to consider is in the last provincial election, the NB PCs + People's Alliance got close to 60% in this area and both are broadly speaking small c conservative parties. So while Tories won't get every vote from those two, they only need a sizeable chunk which they will likely get. While the NDP weakness helps the Liberals, this is the area where Green Party leader David Coon is from so the Greens could easily get in double digits and that will likely come at the expense of the Liberals not Tories. So while the Liberals have an edge now, not a large enough one that I think this can be called for them.
24/02/19 Fredericton voter
Matt DeCourcey has been instrumental for the riding. Success in getting Federal funding for the Fredericton International Airport will play a huge factor here and his commitment to the armed forces and youth will also play here. This stays Liberal in my eyes.

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