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 | 17/10/19 |
Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188 |
Formerly a NDP stronghold they could make it a little interesting this time but given the candidate's late entrance to the election I think the Liberals hold on here. |
 | 13/10/19 |
Physastr Master 72.182.105.136 |
I played around with tooclosetocall.ca's election simulator with Nanos's latest numbers, which seem to match the DART poll's trends in atlantic canada: LPC 41, NDP 28, CPC 23. This is insane, by the way, this indicates NDP support in the maritimes has nearly doubled in the last week. I agree with a previous poster that this is kind of Madawaska-Restigouche-like without Yvon Godin, but not only did Jason Godin last election still perform respectably, but this remains the one place in New Brunswick where the NDP consistently performs respectably provincially, even in the absolutely catastropic 2018 election. Furthermore, plugging those Nanos numbers into that simulator leaves the NDP within 1 point in *Madawaska-Restigouche*, let alone Acadie-Bathurst. With the Nanos numbers, that simulator puts the NDP *17*(!) points ahead here. 338 hasn't had their NDP numbers dragged up to the high-20's yet, but they're still saying this is LPC-NDP competitive. TCTC.ca and Eric Grenier (I think) both have this flipping too. Regardless, there's no way the NDP wins 30% in Atlantic Canada and loses this. At the moment, the odds seem fairly solid that that will happen. |
 | 23/09/19 |
Riverdale Resident 192.133.45.2 |
Daniel Thériault named NDP candidate for Acadie-Bathurst - Jagmeet Singh and Yvon Godin at the announcement https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1312636/daniel-theriault-candidat-npd-jagmeet-singh-acadie-bathurst-nouveau-brunswick |
 | 07/09/19 |
The Jackal 99.236.206.117 |
With NDP having no candidate named as of now the problems they are having in Atlantic Canada. I would say the Liberals have this one in the bag. |
 | 03/09/19 |
Laurence Putnam 96.53.49.70 |
Given the lack of NDP candidate - never mind one who carries the Godin name - not to mention now sporting a leader who doesn't connect with Francophones in this riding the way Mulcair did - I would expect a Liberal win with 70% here is very possible. The NDP falling all the way to fourth place is a distinct possibility. |
 | 25/08/20 |
A.S. 99.225.32.21 |
Given reports of the NDP having no NB candidates in place 2 months before E-day, at this point I'd question whether even 2nd place is in the cards for the Dippers in Acadie-Bathurst, never mind 1st place. |
 | 04/08/20 |
Sam 86.188.99.68 |
Polling is now showing the Liberals to have broken ahead. A move into the Liberal column is now justified, but I maintain that had the NDP been doing a lot better, they could've won this, even without Yvon Godin. |
 | 14/06/19 |
seasaw 99.225.244.232 |
This was more of an Yvon Godin riding, not an NDP riding. Now the NDP has no one in the same caliber as Godin, the CPC is weak here, so it's safe to say Liberal hold. |
 | 05/06/19 |
Marco Ricci 174.114.238.210 |
With the NDP falling to 4th behind the Greens in the new CRA poll for Atlantic Canada, it may be difficult for them to make a comeback here unless they get a star candidate. Probably leaning Liberal for now. https://cra.ca/federal-liberals-and-conservatives-in-statistical-tie-in-atlantic-canada-ahead-of-2019-election-while-green-party-support-rises/ |
 | 05/04/19 |
Craig 130.18.104.137 |
Without Yves Godin, this will be a lot more like Madawaska-Restigouche or Beausejour. Francophone New Brunswick is naturally very deeply Liberal and the provincial seats here went overwhelmingly to the Liberals for the most part. There's no evidence that a Godin is running for this seat, which should open up the margin significantly for the Liberals. Serge Cormier may not be a big name but it won't matter. The NDP support might be a bit higher here than elsewhere in the province but I can't see how they can overcome the natural return to red. This is also the worst Conservative riding, by far, in New Brunswick and Higgs is not popular here especially when tied to the PANB (who are despised here). Hence, easy Liberal hold. |
 | 06/03/19 |
Kyle H 24.141.201.77 |
A lot will depend on who the NDP candidate is, but it isn't another Godin then this should be considered a good Liberal lock. The days of Yvon holding out against the red and blue tides are gone, provincially this area swung towards the Liberals even as their support fell province-wide. The NDP need a strong candidate to win this, none have come forward and Jagmeet isn't Jack - he lacks the working-man persona that plays well in this more impoverished area. |
 | 02/03/19 |
Sam 86.153.36.235 |
This riding is going to be quite hard to predict as the Liberal losses in New Brunswick are only boosting the Conservatives. The NDP will obviously do better here than elsewhere but whether the Liberals fall enough to allow them to win remains to be seen. It does however appear that the Liberals have a slight edge. |