Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:29:05

Constituency Profile


Anderson, Brogan

Blois, Kody

Dodge, Stacey

MacQuarrie, Martha

Schneider, Stephen

Southall, Matthew

Tan, Nicholas


Scott Brison

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



4124.46 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Scott Brison ** 3302670.70%
David Morse 867718.60%
Hugh Curry 29986.40%
Will Cooper 15693.40%
Megan Brown-Hodges 1840.40%
Edd Twohig 1320.30%
Clifford James Williams 1000.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/10/19 R.O.
No one is really paying any attention to this riding , still think it has the potential to surprise considering its history and rural/small town demographics . Especially if the conservatives do better than expected in Nova Scotia and ndp improve there numbers on the east coast. With Scott Brison gone and Kody Blois the new liberal candidate . I think the numbers will look a lot different than 2015 and be 5 % either way. And in fact this riding had been very close in 2011.
17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Aside from 1993-1997 this has been either a Scott Brison riding or a Conservative riding. Still I think the Liberals hold on here very slightly.
28/09/19 Murphy
I would agree with the previous poster who said it will be much closer than 2015. Driving through the riding the Conservative candidate has a significant amount of signs, essentially a sign or two every few homes. I did not observe any Liberal signs. While signs don't necessarily tell the true story, they are significant enough for me to predict that the Conservatives will likely make this a close one on election night.
25/09/19 R.O.
Something tells me the race here will be much close than 2015 , true Brison did well here but it had always been a pc riding and new liberal candidate is not high profile , liberals also went out of there way to avoid having a by election here . unlike the 2015 election the cpc is also taking the open NS ridings seriously , Martha Macquarrie was nominated some time ago and Scheer has campaigned in the riding.
09/09/19 A.S.
By 2015, Brison effectively commanded a Lib-PC fusion mandate, with CPC reduced to a Reform/Alliance-y rump. Expect some of that dynamic to continue post-Brison--maybe not as monolithically so, but...
02/06/19 seasaw
While this is more of a Scott Brison riding, and his departure will weaken the Liberals quite a bit, I still think the Liberals have enough strength to pull a victory.
24/05/19 Laurence Putnam
My early gut feel is that the Liberals shed 20 points from their last result, but still win comfortably...this time. The departure of Scott Brison and a greatly increased result for the Conservatives, while still a loss, will serve to attract better Tory candidates next time and probably put this riding back into contention in 2023.
15/05/19 Craig
This will be a test without Scott Brison, but his presence will surely still be felt in the Liberal campaign. The LPC certainly won't get anywhere near 70% of the vote (more due to the decline of Liberal fortunes in Atlantic Canada), but they are definitely still in the driver's seat. I'd give them the edge at this point.
This is still Red Tory/Liberal territory that would be naturally closer to the modern Liberals than the modern Conservatives, while the old Reform/Alliance always got annihilated here. I'd want to see province-by-province breakdowns of the Atlantic numbers before giving the CPC a shot here. Likely Liberal for now, even without Brison.
14/03/19 Dr.Bear
Time to see if this has truly become a Liberal riding or a Scott Brison riding. My instincts tell me both, as folks probably got accustomed to voting red over the last couple of decades. So likely a Liberal hold but I'm being cautious and listing it TCTC for now.
13/03/19 Sam
Thanks to Scott Brison's retirement and the increasingly apparent Liberal decline, the Conservatives have an opening here, and this could well be their only chance to take it. A Liberal hold is still likely but neither party can be ruled out.
Now that Scott Brison has retired from politics, the Liberals will definitely not be getting over 70% here in 2019. This was definitely a Scott Brison seat. However in recent years NS is trending further towards the Liberals than any other province. I think the 52% vote spread in 2015 will be too much for the Conservatives to overcome.
11/03/19 Mubs
The legacy of Brison should ensure that this riding remains Liberal albeit with a reduced margin.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Scott Brison not running does give the Tories an opening, but considering in recent provincial elections they haven't done well here and considering how badly they lost this in 2015, probably a bridge too far. Nonetheless I expect things to tighten up and if the Tories start to get competitive in Atlantic Canada I may change my prediction, but for now Liberal hold by a narrower margin.

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