Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:28:58

Constituency Profile


Fillmore, Andy

Holland, Bruce

McGenn, Duncan

Roberts, Jo-Ann

Saulnier, Christine

Wilson, Bill


Andy Fillmore

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



215.64 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Andy Fillmore 2743151.70%
Megan Leslie ** 1916236.10%
Irvine Carvery 45648.60%
Thomas Trappenberg 17453.30%
Allan Bezanson 1300.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1520.33%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.86% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Halifax West
   (0.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Don't know why this is in the TCTC pile. Filmore's been a pretty active MP and should get in again easily. Maybe the NDP would have won here again if Megan Leslie was the candidate but she's not.
15/10/19 S.J.
When the writ dropped, this would have been a safe Liberal seat. However, the NDP has been surging from coast to coast, and some polls are showing them around 20% in Atlantic Canada. Given its history of voting NDP, this one will be an interesting two-way race between them and the Liberals. I will be keeping an eye on Halifax when the Atlantic polls close, because it could be an indicator of whether or not the NDP surge has materialized.
14/10/19 R S G
Andy Fillmore is well liked, the NDP will be a distant 2nd here
12/10/19 MBD
The NDP is back in Atlantic Canada, according to two recent polls. After St. John's East, Halifax is the next one for them to win. There's a strong base of voters in Halifax who will swing to the NDP when they're irritated with the Liberals.
20/09/19 The Jackal
With the NDP out of contention this will be a lock for the Liberals. However, it will be interesting to see how well the Greens do here.
10/09/19 A.S.
There's an odd logic to Halifax being poised to be the next Victoria, second-place Green finish and all--*if* it happens. But there'd also be an odd logic to Halifax forgiving Jagmeet enough to keep the NDP at second. Which all adds up to splits enabling another Liberal victory--the Greens have more viable fish to fry in two other Maritime capitals than here.
10/06/19 Islander
I think we've all concluded at this point that Fillmore isn't in any danger considering the state the NDP is in right now. What I'd like to point out is that Jo-Ann Roberts, who ran in Victoria in 2015 and won the second-most votes for a Green candidate in the country is running here. While I don't know why she's specifically running in Halifax or if she has any name recognition here (she did have some in Victoria), I think this riding might be worth paying attention to just to see how well the Greens can grow here, even if she doesn't have any chance of winning.
24/05/19 Marco Ricci
I agree this riding is probably leaning towards Liberal MP Andy Fillmore for now. Megan Leslie is not running again. Anti-poverty activist Christine Saulnier has been chosen as the new NDP candidate. (Meanwhile, Bruce Holland, a former Liberal MLA back in the 1990's, is running for the Conservatives).
17/04/19 Craig
Halifax should remain solidly in the Liberal column. The Conservatives are irrelevant here these days, and with the NDP far from power, the LPC would be the only way they could get government representation. Andy Fillmore has been a strong representative locally too and Trudeau remains popular here (although not as much so as in 2015), which should help him as well.
Halifax has a large number of government employees, multiple universities and is the most educated riding in Atlantic Canada, which would naturally support the Liberals in this environment too. If Megan Leslie is lurking, it may be close, but unless the NDP can approach the Liberals and it is clear the Conservatives are heading to power, it should remain red.
Halifax has changed since the days of Robert Stanfield. The Conservatives are now irrelevant in this seat. It is a 2 way race between the Liberals and the NDP. The Liberals should have no problem holding onto this seat.
02/03/19 Sam
Again what happens here is hard to predict but the Liberal edge appears bigger than in other ridings the NDP won in 2011. Andy Fillmore has been a strong MP for the area and his large victory against Megan Leslie, a then major star for the NDP suggests that the Liberals will be strong going into this riding, unlike in other Maritime ridings they had lower expectations in. The NDP do have a chance and this is their best chance in Nova Scotia but the Liberals will also try not to let this one slip out of reach. The Liberals do appear to have an edge, but that could easily change.

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