Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:28:21

Constituency Profile


Easter, Wayne

Keenan, Anna

Nash, Craig

Stewart, Stephen


Wayne Easter

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1607.46 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Wayne Easter ** 1395062.10%
Stephen Stewart 394717.60%
Leah-Jane Hayward 250911.20%
Lynne Lund 20669.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Surprised Easter ran again. Still he will hold on here to complete the Liberal sweep of PEI.
15/10/19 Mark
A safe Liberal win in a safe Liberal province. Wayne Easter is well liked and will almost definitely keep his seat despite some local concerns over Liberal/Trudeau ‘missteps’.
25/09/19 R.O.
Wayne Easter has been mp for a very long time , so no doubt he has support in the riding . the wildcard in most of the PEI ridings this year is the green vote and if they manage to have the same sort of success here the provincial party had. That could perhaps make these ridings a bit more competitive .
31/08/19 A.S.
It's Bevan-Baker's home riding, it's where he's run federally in the past, and it's where his coattails brought the Greens close to 10% in 2015...but bear in mind that after the last election, other than a segment of a Summerside-area riding he's *still* the only provincial Green representative within Malpeque, and a bit of a rural rump within his own caucus. So let's not get ahead of ourselves with too-grand expectations for the Greens of Green Gables here, or for that matter of an alliance of Anne's freckles with Scheer's dimples, even if the provincial PCs presently rule most of this territory...
08/07/19 Sam
Perhaps CPC national strategists look at this site? They clearly agree with us that this is their best shot On the island. Now, at the beginning of the year I think we all assumed this was safe for the Liberals, and whilst they have a good shot, the CPC are starting to really threaten them - which is why many of their best figures have gone to rally for Stephen Stewart. Wayne Easter knows he is vulnerable, but he actually strikes me as the weakest of the four liberal MPs when it comes to personal strength - Macaulay obviously has served in cabinet and is locally popular, and I would argue Morrissey and Casey are both popular incumbents. Don't forget the increase in the Green vote too - and they'll have Peter Bevan-Baker to help out. With the CPC going hard to take this, it's definitely time to move it over.
09/06/19 Craig
The most recent polls showed the Liberals were tied or trailing in Atlantic Canada, and that includes PEI. Surely Conservative support has to come from somewhere? This is the best of the four ridings provincially for the PEI PC's, and while they are definitely more moderate than the federal Conservatives, that may be a clue.
I'm still skeptical that the low ebb will hold up and Wayne Easter is a formidable candidate. However, if the CPC do pick up a seat in PEI, Malpeque will likely be the first one. A stronger Green vote might split the vote to help them too. At this point, I'd say too close to call, perhaps slight advantage Liberals, but will be MUCH closer than in 2015.
08/06/19 Physastr Master
This looks like an easy liberal win, their victory was pretty resounding in 2015. However, the 338 polling aggregate has the Cons essentially tied with the Libs at 31% on PEI, with the Greens at a pretty respectable 23%, so calling 2/4 ridings for the Libs seems premature. The question, then, is where the Liberal, Green and Conservative support is concentrated. I think the provincial election is probably the best indicator for trends in PEI, as the numbers weren't too far off the current federal numbers. If we go by that, Egmont looks competitive GPC/LPC, Cardigan probably leans CPC over LPC, Charlottetown competitive GPC/LPC, and Malpeque competitive GPC/CPC. This is all very speculative, however, so TCTC across the board for now.
05/04/19 Sam
Although the PCs and Greens do best here provincially, Wayne Easter has consistently run up decent margins and should win again. The Liberals aren't doing well in Atlantic Canada but that shift is more apparent in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia where the Conservatives have some standing.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
If either the Greens or Tories were to win a riding in PEI, it would be this one as PEI Green leader who is very popular comes from this area and Tories do somewhat better here plus vote splits from Greens. Nonetheless Wayne Easter has been here since 1993 and survived even the 2011 disaster so I suspect he will have no difficulty holding this. Once he retires this might be more competitive.

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