Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:28:18

Constituency Profile


Clark, Alex

Dunn, Sharon

McLellan, Logan

Morrissey, Bobby


Bobby Morrissey

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1483.14 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bobby Morrissey 1052149.30%
Gail Shea ** 618529.00%
Herb Dickieson 409719.20%
Nils Ling 5592.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Yeah, this seat will stay Liberal. The area went Liberal in the 1984 Mulroney election so in 2019 it'll stay Liberal.
25/08/20 A.S.
Gail Shea got in through a fluke open-seat circumstance in a bad Liberal year, and stuck in through an even worse Liberal year; but remember that in 1984's Mulroney landslide, Egmont was the only PEI seat to *stay* Liberal. And I agree that the only thing that'd presently make Egmont any more competitive than the PEI norm would be Dr. Herb in the running...but at this rate, more if were he running on a joint NDP-Green ticket, as if that were to happen.
08/06/19 Physastr Master
I agree with the previous posts, Gail Shea clearly inflated Con numbers and without her I don't think the Cons are favoured. Cardigan and Malpeque are much more vulnerable to the Cons. The provincial trends here are interesting, as the PCs did fairly poorly here, with the Greens sweeping Summerside and Liberals doing well across the rest of the riding. I think Herb Dickieson's candidacy for the NDP probably explains why the Greens were so weak in 2015, so if Herb runs again then the 3-way split on the anti-Con vote will make the Cons competitive. Otherwise, The riding is probably leaning Liberal for now, but could go Green if Trudeau keeps slipping.
13/04/19 OttawaGuy94
As Dr Bear said, this was a Shea seat, not a conservative seat. Look at the provincial trends as well and the PEI PC Party is stronger in Cardigan, rather than Egmont.
05/04/19 Sam
I largely agree with what Dr Bear said, but with the shift away from the Liberals in Atlantic Canada, there are circumstances in which the Liberals could definitely lose, even with an MP like Bobby Morrissey.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
This is normally a Liberal leaning and only went Tory to Gail O'Shea's popularity, but now that she is gone and considering how unpopular the Harper government still remains in PEI, while likely stay Liberal albeit by a somewhat tighter margin.

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