Election Prediction Project

Long Range Mountains
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:28:01

Constituency Profile


Eisses, Josh

Hutchings, Gudie

Knill, Lucas

Miles, Robert

Pike, Holly


Gudie Hutchings

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



37967.03 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Gudie Hutchings 3088973.90%
Wayne Ruth 508512.20%
Devon Babstock 473911.30%
Terry Cormier 11112.70%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2580.72%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
   (65.86% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Random-Burin-St. George's
   (34.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Gudie Hutchings will hold on here. Apparently the CPC candidate is from outside the province. That won't bode well in a province that has a strained relationship already with the CPC.
25/09/19 R.O.
A relatively safe liberal seat , although if the conservatives eventually recover on newfoundland such ridings will eventually be closer races .
07/09/19 A.S.
Presently, the N&L riding with the longest continuous spell of electing the Liberals (since 1980). It'd only have had a real chance of going CPC had Ches Crosbie won the provincial election in a ‘Danny Williams’ landslide and made amends with his nominal national counterparts.
01/07/19 ottawa99
According to a Narrative Research poll focusing specifically on Atlantic Canada (https://cra.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/June-5-19-News-Release-Atlantic-Federal-Voting-Intentions.pdf), the Liberals are only three points ahead of the Conservatives in NL (45 to 42%). Of course, this is only one poll. It would need to be corroborated by other polls that give results for NL, or riding-specific polls. That said, if these numbers are accurate, this seat is likely in play. Recent federal election results and demographics suggest any Conservative strength is likely not in the two St. John's seats, meaning that it would likely be concentrated in rural ridings such as this.
25/06/19 Sam
No way Gudie Hutchings loses this - she's nothing special but it's just too Liberal to go for another party. I can see why some swing calculations have this as a tossup, but that methodology is flawed. The Liberal voters here are more ideologically left than the traditional Liberals in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity; they won't flock to the Conservatives in large numbers. This should be a Liberal hold with 50-60% of the vote.
10/06/19 (Vancouver) Islander
I have a ton of respect for 338Canada, but there's no way in hell that this is a ‘toss-up’.
31/05/19 Laurence Putnam
Long Range Mountains describes this seat for the Liberals perfectly, because they'll hold it for a long range of time with mountains and mountains of votes. Everyone else is an also-ran.
24/02/19 Sam
It would be stunning if this riding went anything but Liberal. Gudie Hutchings won over 70% last time and is running again, and if the Bonavista by-election in a very similar riding is representative of this election, she should be fine; it would take a staggering underperformance to be competitive with the main challenger, the Conservatives.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
went over 50% Liberal in the 2011 meltdown so easy Liberal hold.

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