Scarborough-Rouge Park

	BYERS, TODD
	DE SILVA, PRIYAN
	PITAMBER, AMIT MAHENDRA
	SAMUEL, FELICIA
	SHAN, SUMI
	THANIGASALAM, VIJAY

Incumbent(s):

	Pickering-Scarborough East    Hon Tracy MacCharles    (45.60% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	Scarborough-Rouge River    Raymond Sung Joon Cho    (40.50% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	Scarborough-Guildwood    Hon Mitzie Hunter    (13.90% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			102646
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		18140	47.98%
		9290	24.57%
		9035	23.90%
		856	2.26%
	OTHERS	488	1.29%
	Total Transposed	37810
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Pickering-Scarborough East
		10509
		5141
		2906
		494
	Others	291
	Total Transposed	19341
	Scarborough-Rouge River
		4901
		2684
		5249
		142
	Others	108
	Total Transposed	13083
	Scarborough-Guildwood
		2731
		1466
		880
		220
	Others	90
	Total Transposed	5386
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Gary Anandasangaree
		29913	60.20%
		Leslyn Lewis
		13587	27.40%
		KM Shanthikumar
		5145	10.40%
		Calvin Winter
		1010	2.00%

	02/06/2018	The_A_Man33 184.75.213.194
With the NDP candidate has many things to her advantage, having been nominated early, able to campaign early, the NDP momentum, having no incumbent, this is definitely to her advantage. Plus she is extremely hard working and will be a great MPP.
	02/06/2018	Dr. Bear 184.175.13.231
NDP are still ahead in this riding. With Wynne conceding that she will not be premier after Thursday and OLP focusing on holding incumbent seats (like Agincourt and Guildwood), I suspect the NDP will get a further boost here.
	31/05/2018	Guestimator 65.92.201.157
NDP surged too soon. This one will go to the PC's.
	25/05/2018	ML 69.77.168.131
This is a very difficult riding to predict. As a large 'ethnoburb' the area is relatively removed from the chattering-class 'strategic vote' factor. The NDP has a solid base in North West Scarborough that helped elected an MP in 2011 and an affiliated NDP councillor in 2017. The Ford family has a very loyal following in Scarborough, and it might be enough to ward off the NDP challenger. I anticipate a third place Liberal finish.
	25/05/2018	agp1989 99.249.221.84
With the recent NDP surge, I think the momentum in this riding is with the NDP. The Liberals, historically, have done well here, when you look at the makeup of the new riding. Ford has alienated a lot of voters. I think the Left vote here will swing to the NDP, just enough to squeak them in. PCs will be a very close second.
	5/22/2018	Bza 142.229.115.110
NDP won't pick up many seats in Scarborough, but it looks like this one could potentially end up in the NDP column.
	22/05/2018	65.110.217.24
Local polls show the NDP leading and the LISPOP have awarded the riding to the NDP as of Today
	13/05/2018	Joe 99.243.204.67
Raymond Cho proved the PC's can win here, they're far up in Toronto polling, and they've nominated a strong candidate. This one's going PC
	08/05/2018	Innocent bystander 67.215.130.68
The first Toronto poll in months was released on May 8. Liberals down 19 points in Scarborough, PCs up 16.
	27/03/2018	70.48.47.204
Who is the National Council of Canadian Tamils endorsing? That's hugely consequential here.
	18/03/2018	A.S. 184.151.179.135
What's interesting to observe is how the circumstances that lately and rather unexpectedly led NE Scarborough to trend NDP have been segmented away through redistribution, Neethan Shan going municipal, the defeated Rathika going Liberal, etc. Scar N is working out to be a strict Tory-Lib battle, while whatever's rumpily left of the orange redoubt in SRR is overwhelmed by Highland Creek Village, West Rouge, and other such easternmost-416 quasi-exurbia. This is territory that came closer than anyplace in the 416 to going Reform in 1993, but has since moderated; right now, if SRR 'goes Ford', it could just as well be (esp. under the present candidacy) ethnoburbia-propelled, instead. (West Rougers being too remote and car-dependent to care about subways.)
	18/01/2018	R.O. 24.146.17.189
Considering the results of the Scarborough Rogue River by election it seems premature to predict the riding this early as liberal. It seems the Scarborough area is more competitive than past years.
	21/12/2017	Gabbith 75.98.19.133
This should be too close to call. Brown's made significant inroads with Tamils, who are a large portion of the riding. The PC candidate is a local Tamil youth leader who should make inroads in Malvern. The South part of the riding will easily go PC with current polling numbers.
	15/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
This is a fairly safe Liberal riding and should stay Liberal unless the NDP experiences the type of surge they do in Scarborough as in 2011 federally. The PCs could get in the low 30s, but that is their ceiling so only strong splits would allow them to win. So unless polls change dramatically I am calling this for the Liberals.