Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-06-07 00:27:00

Constituency Profile












   Hon Mitzie Hunter

   (88.24% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Scarborough Centre
   Hon Brad Duguid

   (11.76% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):101914

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

16154 50.35%
8964 27.94%
5448 16.98%
902 2.81%
OTHERS 614 1.91%
Total Transposed 32082

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed27609

     Scarborough Centre

Total Transposed4473

Federal Election Result (2015):

John McKay **
Chuck Konkel
Laura Casselman
Kathleen Holding
Kevin Clarke
Paul Coulbeck


06/06/2018 Jay
PC candidate is the winner in this riding. Today, the allegation against him was proved a fake one to defame him. He gained more supporters after this. Hunter will lose her votes to NDP , only because of Wynn.
NDP willl gain few votes but they cannot win the race. Hardly we could see any lawn signs of NDP across the area and most of the people do not even know, who the candidate is. PC, Liberal, NDP in this riding.
06/06/2018 MF
With the allegations against the PC candidate and a paper NDP candidate, Mitzie Hunter just might end up on top in a three-way race - just like in the by-election in which she was first elected where she prevailed with just over 35% of the vote.
05/06/2018 Larry
I think Mitzie will hold. Her seat by a couple of thousand votes. Mitzie is likeable. The NDP have not been seen much the Tories a lot of signsge but little else.
Also I think the Liberals will get thitd psrtu status with comfort a dozen or more sests
05/06/2018 Christopher L
The mess with the PC candidate might be just enough to help the Liberals hold on here - Hunter is popular and a good politician, and this just isn't a very NDP friendly part of Scarborough. Expect a close three way race, but a Liberal hold - possibly their only seat between downtown Toronto and downtown Ottawa.
04/06/2018 The Elites
The PC's star candidate in this riding was caught threatening the Tamil community in the riding and is now being investigated by the Toronto Police in a professional standards investigation. That is not a good look on Conservatives that want to win here. The NDP don't seem to have much of a presence here, and the Liberal incumbent is popular. Wynne's announcement this weekend should be enough for her to hold on to this seat, although with a much smaller margin.
03/06/2018 BillyBoy
PC candidate is not showing up at all-candidate debates. Even though one party's internal polling shows PC's will win, NDP 2nd, and Liberals 3rd, I'm still predicting Liberals will win.
02/06/2018 Dr. Bear
I think this will be where the Liberals will be focusing their efforts in Scarborough. Hunter has enough support to pull it off, even though the NDP seem to be ahead here (according to prediction models). Conservatives could still win with a vote split. Let's watch how this unfolds during the week.
25/05/2018 BillyBoy
I know that the sign war is not always an indication, but it is overwhelmingly red Mitzie signs throughout the riding. PC's have a weak candidate and the NDP has been non-existant. I'll be shocked if the Liberals don't hold this one.
20/05/2018 Dork in East York
Too close to call. I never would have thought mere weeks ago that the Liberals could lose this riding, but it's as possibility. I think the PCs are nipping at the Liberals heals with the NDP not too far behind. This could be an interesting three way race.
14/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Mainstreet's Toronto-only poll showed the Liberals down 19 points from 2014, and the PCs up 16 in Scarborough.
13/05/2018 seasaw
This isn't a safe Liberal seat. The Lobster says " too educated to vote PC ", obviously The Lobster hasn't checked the Liberal numbers in the educated demographic. The fact is that this riding, though the boundaries are a little different, has elected a member from the winning party since 1985. That may or may not change this time, but it likely won't.
13/05/2018 MF
Guildwood is the last Liberal riding in Scarborough in my opinion, partly because of Mitzie Hunter's profile and the fact that the federal Liberals kept this in 2011 (though you can argue that was more of a fluke). But that doesn't mean she will keep it - a PC victory is possible, though an NDP one seems less likely. There isn't really anything demographically special about Guildwood - no sign of it being characterized as the "too educated to vote Conservative, too rich to vote NDP" demographic vis-a-vis Scarb Centre and Rouge River.
09/05/2018 The Lobster
I'd like to echo what A.S. said but add an important caveat: unlike Scarborough Centre, Scarborough--Rouge Park, or Scarborough Southwest, the NDP are going to do very very poorly in Guildwood. Guildwood is in many ways St. Paul's Light: too educated to vote PC, too wealthy to vote NDP. But it's in Scarborough, so it's not St. Paul's-style safe. If the Liberals maintain official party status, Hunter should get re-elected. In fact, I'd say she is the safest Liberal outside of Vanier and Toronto's downtown core. But it's not a 'reduced to one of two seats' seat either.
28/04/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberals won The 6ix by 26 points in 2014; now they're running third, down 43% ... they bleed red ink slower than that.
27/04/2018 Joe
Let's not kid ourselves here, pretty much all the projection forecasts, pundits and prognosticators' models are predicting a runaway PC victory in Guildwood. Coupled with Hunter's notorious misdeeds in cabinet, and this certainly looks ripe for a takeover to me.
22/04/2018 BillyBoy
PC's just appointed a weak candidate. Ms. Hunter was already the favourite, but now it's a given.
25/03/2018 Mir-Interstingly-Ontario
This is a 100% safe Liberal seat. Hunter is active in the community. She is a woman. She is a visible minority. She will get voted for that. There is no PC candidate yet. The NDP never has a good candidate here.
17/03/2018 A.S.
If--*if*--the Ford juggernaut's set to sweep Scarborough, Mitzie won't be immune; or at least, there's nothing in her constituency that suggests why she should be immune. And the fact that federal counterpart John McKay was reelected in a landslide owes as much to his already having skin-of-his-teeth survived 2011 as anything. It's not that she's super-vulnerable (indeed, Mitzie Hunter-type incumbents are why the provincial Grits could be expected to survive with some integrity intact). But I certainly can't call this a 'reduced to one or two seats' case, either. Guildwood isn't *that* distinctive from its neighbours.
04/03/2018 Larry
Liberals to win here comfortably. Mitzie is popular and has a friendly manner so people of all backgrounds like her. The Tories and NDP have done little to improve their image in Guildwood. Province wide a minority government is a possibility though. But Wynne has done a lot to help lower income people and has improved a lot. The wage hike is meaningful and the drug benefit for children is a great help for families plus proposals for minimum income guarantee. Wynne could win with a majority government. Of course only time will tell.
03/03/2018 The Jackal
As things stand right now this is the only Scarborough riding I can safely call for the Liberals. I will have to wait until March 2018 and during the election before I can call the others
30/01/2018 ML
Probably the safest Liberal seat in Toronto after St. Paul's.
29/01/2018 Bill
If the Liberals are reduced to one seat (not that I am predicting that), this will be it.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
Hunter has really solidified herself in this riding. No PC candidate yet which is interesting. Likely Liberal hold.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
Safe Liberal riding nowadays (NDP and PCs won in the past but it was then more of a white working class riding as opposed to a multicultural one like today) and with Mitzie Hunter being young, female, and a visible minority I would not be the least surprised if she becomes the next Liberal leader if Wynne loses and even if Wynne wins, she probably will retire sometime around 2021.

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