Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2017-12-07 21:05:00

Constituency Profile









   John Yakabuski

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):103495

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

7897 19.11%
25241 61.07%
5978 14.46%
1337 3.23%
OTHERS 881 2.13%
Total Transposed 41334

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed41334

Federal Election Result (2015):

Cheryl Gallant **
Jeff Lehoux
Hector Clouthier
Dan McCarthy
Stefan Klietsch


13/05/2018 Hieronymus
In this riding, Yak might be vulnerable if someone were to run to his right or if he went into a total Scott Brown style meltdown. I suspect that if he took on Gallant and the Liberals and the NDP joined forces, there would be a close three-way race that Gallant would likely win--Yak is the better campaigner, but Gallant's base is likely more solid. The NDP has a better shot of forming a government than Yak has of losing this riding.
AS - Point taken. The name was Lanark - Renfrew - Carelton from 68-88 Federally, and Larnark Renfrew Provincially 87-99.
Point still stands. With the exception of Rev. McBride who narrowly won in 1968 (taking the South Renfrew portion heavily) but lost in 1972 (losing the same area narrowly) both ridings were strongly Conservative.
2018-04-1 A.S.
Memo to Pure Whig: Renfrew South did not exist federally after 1968, or provincially after 1987. And while point taken about Renfrew being not as historically 'red' as imagined through the filter of Sean Conway's tenure, one has to admit that the relative 'evolution' of the respective Liberal and Conservative brands does more to explain what's happened here over the past quarter century than simple posterity. Much like how rural Saskatchewan seats went from being NDP/Lib-competitive to 70-80% Conservative/Sask Party strongholds--under that circumstance, it's a wonder why Ontario doesn't presently have more R-N-P's...
16/01/2018 Pure Whig
Despite historical commentary to the contrary this was never a safe Liberal Seat. Ever.
The old Renfrew North riding trended Conservative for most of its history except in times of strong Liberal surges such as the election that brought Conway to office in 1975. Credit must be given to Conway for keeping a strong rein on it until his retirement.
I remain at a loss why people forget that provincially Renfrew South was Tory Blue from for all but two years from 1943-1999 (the two years being Quilty's by-election win before being toppled by Yak senior in the 60's). Federally, Renfrew South was Conservative from 1957-68, and again from 1972-1993. There has always been a strong bastion of Tory support here. When the two old ridings were combined it naturally made the path to Conservative victories easier.
27/12/2017 R.O.
This is a fairly rural riding but not technically included in northern ontario. John Yakabuski has been mpp since 2003 and been re elected in every election since and seems to be well liked here.
2017-12-26 Craig
Safest Conservative seat in Ontario today, even though it has a long Liberal history. Even with a much stronger national result, a very strong local Liberal candidate AND a split vote (Hec Clouthier, despite being a former Liberal, was well to the right of today's party and mostly taking Conservative votes), they couldn't come particularly close in 2015 federally. That should mean an easy win for John Yakabuski, likely with over 60% of the vote and possibly over 70%.
However, there is one possible wild card. If the Trillium Party wanted to make a serious run and find a strong candidate, this is probably the most likely riding where they could run strong, particularly given that the PC platform is more liberal than the mainstream in this riding. Given the weakness of the Liberals and NDP here, they could actually do it without worrying about vote splitting either. However, there is no evidence such is happening.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
This was once a safe Liberal riding, but today is one of the safest if not safest PC riding in the province. John Yabusuki is also very popular personally which is an added bonus and even the controversial and normally invisible Cheryl Gallant has little trouble winning this federally so easy PC hold.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
Once a reliable Liberal riding, now one of the safest PC ridings in the province. John Yabusaki is also very popular personally and even Cheryl Gallant federally who is fairly nutty somes to hav no trouble winning this. So easy PC win, only question is does this continue to hold the title of the largest PC win in the province percentage wise or lose this title.
10/12/2017 J.B.
Yet another riding (like Parry Sound-Muskoka) that should not be considered as a part of northern Ontario, this riding will remain in the PC column.
06/12/2017 Kathy
PCs had their largest margin of victory here in 2014. Safe seat.

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