Oxford

	DE JONG, ALBERT
	HARDEMAN, ERNIE
	HODGES, TIM
	HOWARD, JAMES
	KING, TARA
	SIKAL, DAVID
	SWIFT, CHRIS
	VAN RYSWYCK, ROBERT
	WALSH, NOAH

Incumbent(s):

	Oxford    Ernie Hardeman    (97.30% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	Brant    Hon Dave Levac    (2.70% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			108656
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		9032	21.42%
		19485	46.20%
		10851	25.73%
		2045	4.85%
	OTHERS	761	1.80%
	Total Transposed	42175
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Oxford
		8736
		18958
		10573
		1985
	Others	749
	Total Transposed	41001
	Brant
		296
		527
		278
		60
	Others	12
	Total Transposed	1174
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Dave MacKenzie **
		25966	45.70%
		Don McKay
		18299	32.20%
		Zoe Kunschner
		9406	16.50%
		Mike Farlow
		2004	3.50%
		Melody Ann Aldred
		1175	2.10%

	31/05/2018	MF 50.101.245.26
While the NDP will be the clear runner up in Oxford, it would take a Rae '90-type result (Tories in third place, split on the right) to take a 'rurban' farm belt/rust belt seat like Oxford. Since the PCs held on to Oxford during the Hudak debacle of 2014 of firing 100,000 workers and attacking unions, I don't see that changing with the more populist Ford leading them and when their numbers are way up from last time.
	28/05/2018	Peter 72.139.192.158
Orange signs are popping up in normally PC areas of the riding in large numbers. There seems to be a couple of factors. People think the incumbent has been around too long and a vote for him is a vote for Ford. Many of my friends who normally vote PC are voting for the NDP candidate this time. There are many CAMI workers who are angry with both the local MP and MPP over trade policy and farmers upset about supply management in the dairy industry. Signs point to an upset here.
	27/05/2018	PM 174.115.69.77
If there is one riding where the Liberals are going to hit rock bottom, it is here. Advantage to NDP, who will keep this close but not close enough. PC-45% NDP-35% LIB-12% GREEN-6% Others-2
	25/05/2018	Matt C 99.226.169.222
I live in Oxford, there is a bit of discord growing amongst people who would normally vote PC. The two most common things I hear is that: 1. Ernie has been around for too long and people are getting a bit annoyed with his slow response time on issues facing the county like the Dump,for example. 2. people are mistrustful and unsettled by Doug Ford. this, coupled with a virtually nonexistent Liberal campaign, could give the NDP the opportunity to very narrowly take the seat, but only time will tell.
	5/24/2018	Dr. Bear 184.175.13.231
The PCs are starting to bleed support to the NDP, especially in SW Ontario. While I have no illusions that this will go anything but PC, I do not think Hardeman will get over 50%, rather something in the low 40's.
	23/05/2018	Christopher L 184.151.37.73
I agree with earlier comments here - the NDP will get a solid vote from Woodstock and Ingersoll, and put up a very respectable result overall (at least 30, maybe 35%), but it still won't be enough to challenge the Tory dominance in this part of SW Ontario. Hardeman should be near or above 50%. The Liberals, on the other hand, will be lucky to break double figures...
	18/05/2018	Bza 142.229.115.110
I see the NDP doing fairly well here, enough to perhaps make it to 35-40%. But PCs will likely get 50%+ as what most people are saying.
	06/05/2018	A.S. 99.225.48.35
Well, as far as 'how low can you go' goes, the fed Libs lost their deposit here in 2011--that plus the Toyota/CAMI economy explains why Oxford might seem to embody some kind of solid new SW Ontario NDP-vs-PC order. But it's still a pretty remote 'versus', unless one created a Woodstock-Ingersoll micro-riding within a 180-seat legislature.
	20/04/2018	PM 174.115.72.156
I used to live in Oxford and this riding is one of the safest blue seats in Ontario. PC's should break 50% but the NDP will gain plenty of votes (plus some going to the Green's) as the Liberal vote will most likely match the approval of the 'current' premier.
	19/03/2018	jeff316 69.165.157.213
Ernie won't lose but the NDP could make a game of it if they suspect Ford might approve the new dump.
	13/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
This is a very safe PC seat, so easy hold. Only question is do they crack the 50% mark here. If they get over 50% they will likely form the next government while if they fall short will remain in opposition. NDP will likely come in second here.
	10/12/2017	99.228.128.85
Ernie Hardeman has been around since the Harris days, don't see it changing.