Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2017-12-07 21:05:00

Constituency Profile










   Nathalie Des Rosiers

   (93.41% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Hon Marie-France Lalonde

   (6.59% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):110999

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

23392 55.16%
9763 23.02%
5564 13.12%
3311 7.81%
OTHERS 377 0.89%
Total Transposed 42406

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed39261


Total Transposed3145

Federal Election Result (2015):

Mauril Bélanger **
Emilie Taman
David Piccini
Nira Dookeran
Coreen Corcoran
Christian Legeais


06/06/2018 MF
Time to update this one: It's pretty clear this is the safest Liberal seat in Ontario. The only question is how many other Liberal colleagues will Nathalie Des Rosiers have with her in the legislature?
30/05/2018 Educated voter
Another Francophone riding, and it will go liberal. Plus , new amazon jobs are heading into the region, and the Liberals have been talking to the voters throughout the different communities. It is impossible to win here unless you have a french last name
30/05/2018 Dr. Bear
@ The Lobster: I do not disagree with you on most of your points (please see my OC follow up comments), and I am familiar with the differences in the ridings (my brother lives in this riding after all). What I do disagree with is some posters certainty that the NDP are a shoe-in in OC while the Liberals are certain here. After all Navqi has been around longer and has won with margins close to those in OV.
To comment on the PC post: suggesting a PC win in OV is either trolling, wishful thinking or signs of a delusional mind. While the PCs are polling well in Eastern Ontario, the aggregates show them leading with 38%. Know what they got in the 2014 election in Eastern Ontario? About 39%. So we are looking at no net change in support. But you might argue that the Liberals have lost support and will slip below the existing PC threshold. That would be true if the change in support was evenly distributed around Eastern Ontario. It has not. Ottawa has not abandoned the OLP to the same extent as other places and they will stay above the 23% that the PCs got in 2014.
29/05/2018 Joe
Although NDP might be able to challenge, PC party still has great big lead in Eastern Ontario and unless it is barring a total NDP sweep they will likely make Vanier a good sweep with pretty nice margin over incumbent Liberals.
5/28/2018 Educated voter
Natalie Desrosiers will win her seat.She is bilingual, has a french last name, and she is well liked in the community , and she has a understanding of how the business community operates in Vanier. Plus, she supports the need for social housing.
25/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Dr. Bear: O-Vanier is a much more Francophone riding that's been Liberal since 1971, and federally, for even longer. And while it includes New Edinburgh, Rockcliffe Park and Beacon Hill, it's much lower on the socio-economic scale than O-Centre, which includes The Glebe and Old Ottawa South.
The Yuppies are more likely than not to swing O-Centre.
25/05/2018 The Lobster
Dr. Bear -- the issues are that: a) the NDP have to close a 42% gap in OV, but a 32% gap in OC (that is not a trivial difference); b) Harden is a much stronger NDP candidate; c) the NDP are putting more resources into OC; and d) most importantly, OC has a history of voting NDP when there is a massive 'towards the NDP' swing. Hell, OC even votes NDP without such a swing.
I haven't called OC yet -- but the two ridings are distinguishable, to be sure.
Des Rosiers stands a real chance of being the only Liberal re-elected (though Del Duca, Coteau, and, yes, even Naqvi may join her). I can't imagine she'll enjoy being part of a rump third-party caucus, and suspect she'll leave mid-term to become a university president or a judge.
5/23/2018 Dr. Bear
What I'm about to say here relates to my post in Ottawa Centre. How is it that both O-Vanier and O-Centre have similar vote distributions in the 2014 election, but here everyone is on the 'Ottawa Vanier is the safest liberal seat' bandwagon, yet in O-Centre everyone's (currently) yelling NDP pickup? I say both are going to be liberal holds.
5/16/2018 Innocent bystander
* ... only 2-5 truly 'safe' Liberal seats ...
13/05/2018 Laurence Putnam
If there are only 12-15 truly "safe" Liberal seats in this election...this is surely one.
28/04/2018 Innocent bystander
Remember the ridiculous gerrymander that kept Rockcliffe Park and Vanier in different ridings? Good times ...
Nathalie Des Rosiers could spend the next five weeks in Barbados and be the favourite on election day. About the only way to generate excitement here would be a prop bet on what portion of the non-416 Liberal caucus Des Rosiers will represent: All, half, a third, or, less than a third.
25/04/2018 GritBusters
My former riding is so safe that the Liberals actually GAINED support here when Bob Rae led the NDP to a majority government in 1990.
Lamentably, this will be an easy Liberal hold no matter the outcome of the election.
22/04/2018 A.S.
It is, above all, the byelection result--at an otherwise electorally uncongenial moment for the provincial Grits, and versus a star PC candidate to boot--that demonstrates how Ottawa-Vanier could just as well wind up virtually all alone among Ontario Liberal strongholds. Okay, maybe not to the degree that River Heights became in Manitoba, but...
22/03/2018 Stevo
It's ridings like this that explain why the Liberals might out-poll the NDP provincewide but win fewer seats. So many votes tied up in seats like this one where voting Liberal is so much a local religion that if the Liberal Party ceased to exist, bewildered residents would simply draw a red 'L' on their ballot and check it off. Safest Liberal seat in the province? Maybe.
12/03/2018 MF
Ottawa-Vanier is right up there with St. Paul's in terms of safeness for the Liberals. The recent by-election showed that Liberal support was barely impacted at all by low polling numbers province-wide.
07/02/2018 Craig
Outside of central Toronto, this is clearly the safest Liberal seat in Ontario. No matter what happens to them, they always win easily - even when the party is extremely unpopular. The large Francophone population and very large population of federal civil servants provide a strong base for them. It was proven in a 2016 by-election, which is normally a time to take out anger on a tired government yet they still voted Liberal quite easily even against a star candidate.
With much more enticing targets elsewhere, I can't see the PC's putting the same resources here, and the NDP have never been strong in eastern Ontario. With Des Rosiers now in cabinet, there is no way that Ottawa-Vanier will flip, even if she ends up as an opposition MPP after the election. The margins may actually increase from 2014 as well.
15/01/2018 seasaw
This is probably the safest Liberal seat. If they don't win here, they'll make Kim Campbell's campaign look amazing
2017-12-23 R.O.
Though Andre Marin was a good candidate for the Ontario PC.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
If the Liberals could hold this in a by-election where people often vote against the government, I don't see how they can lose this in a general election.
10/12/2017 Innocent bystander
Liberal since 1971. If the Liberals can't win here, they can't win anywhere in Eastern Ontario ... and maybe they can only win here.
06/12/2017 Kathy
If the PCs couldn't win this one in a byelection that would send a message to Wynne, it's probably in safe Liberal hands no matter how bad they perform.

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